Blue Star Ltd. share price target

Q2 was a gradual improvement over Q1 with revenues down 28% YoY, driven by a dip of 16% in the unitary cooling business at Rs3bn. The project business was down 31%, impacted due to sites with sites operating at 65-70% levels in Q2 as they open up. While revenues came in line, EBIDTA and PAT were better than estimates (Exhibit 1) Both the businesses are expected to show improvement as the economy opens up, with company expecting better H2 margins. The AC business is expected to normalize by Q4FY21, which is the next big...

5 August 2020 successful in reducing its working capital (WC) cycle in FY20. As % of sales, WC stood at 6.2% in F20 (v/s 10.6% in FY19) due to debtor days declining to 57 days in FY20 (v/s 78 days in FY19). Free cash flow (FCF) generated stood at INR3.7b in FY20, implying FCF/EBITDA of 131% and FCF/Adj. PAT of 252%. Over FY14-20, FCF generation stood strong at INR8.9b, implying 100% FCF/Adj. PAT. BLSTRs products are exported to 18 countries across the Middle East, Africa, SAARC and ASEAN regions. Revenues from abroad doubled to INR5.2b in FY20 (v/s INR2.6b in FY15). Also, share of revenue from abroad now constitutes ~10% of the companys total revenue (v/s 8.

The Blue Star AR while addressing the covid-19 impact talks about company's focus on constant innovation, product expansion and dealer engagement. The company revamped its products and brand with Virat Kohli as the brand ambassador in FY20. The company has implemented the BlueStar@80 FY24 strategy; management continuity, constant...

13 May 2020 Blue Star (BLSTR) barely managed to report profit in 4QFY20 as shutdown toward end-Mar20 impacted the UCP/EMP segments. Also, BLSTR is looking at debt financing to maintain liquidity in the current challenging times. We have cut our FY21E/F22E earnings by 57%/29% as we factor in likely weak primary sales in the UCP segment in FY21 until inventory weak order inflow and execution in the EMP segment as the company focuses on cash conservation. Our SOTP-based TP stands at We continue to prefer Voltas over BLSTR to play the underpenetrated AC market in India. 4QFY20 revenue declined 18.6% YoY to INR13b and was 16% below expectation. Owing to lack of operating leverage and ECL related provisions in the project business, EBITDA declined 66% YoY to INR373m (63% below est.) EBITDA margin was down 400bp YoY to 2.9% (v/s est. Adj. PAT came in at INR96m, down 88% YoY.

Blue Star Ltd. (BLUESTAR) reported strong revenue growth of ~13% YoY to `12,359.1mn, with the EMPS segment registering growth of ~16% YoY to `7,588mn driven by strong execution and cost optimisation measures. The UCP segment grew 7.3% YoY/ 11.4% QoQ to...

Blue Star Ltd. (BLUESTAR) reported strong revenue growth of 21% YoY to `12,494.7mn, with the EMPS segment registering growth of 24.2% YoY/25.6% QoQ to `7,835.4mn driven by health order book and strong execution. UCP segment grew 10% YoY to `3,772.1mn in line...

Blue Star Ltd. (BLUESTAR) reported muted revenue growth of 4.5% YoY to `15,745.5mn, with the UCP segment registering sales growth of 9.2% YoY to `9,068.9mn. EMPS business sales growth was flat for the quarter at `6,239.4mn due to slower pace of execution of orders and preference of being balance-sheet prudent with prompt payment from customers based on order...

Blue Star (BLSTR) has reported a muted performance in 1QFY20 with its adjusted PAT growing by 1% YoY to Rs768mn due to muted revenue growth and lower margin across segments. Blended EBITDA margin declined by 184bps YoY to 7.3%. Its revenue grew by 4% YoY to Rs15.8bn led by 9% YoY growth in unitary products segment, while revenue of project business remained flat. Order book rose by 34% YoY to Rs28.4bn, while order inflow grew by 55% YoY to Rs9.7bn. We continue to remain positive on BLSTR on the back of improving margin profile, healthy balance sheet and healthy market share. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with...

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3 May 2019 4QFY19 sales at INR16b grew 19% YoY (v/s our est. of INR15.2b) on strong pick-up in UCP segment sales (+19% YoY) and timely execution of projects in the EMP segment (+21% YoY). EBITDA of INR1.1b (+81% YoY) was ahead of our estimate of INR839m, supported by better-than-estimated margins in the UCP segment (+350bp YoY; 10.4%). Adj. Net Profit increased 212% YoY to INR824m (v/s our est. of INR482m) on lower-than-estimated tax during the quarter (1% v/s our est. PAT grew 13% (INR52.3b)/ 30% (INR3.5b)/35% (INR1.9b).

To achieve its stated five- business of HVAC, MEP and AC&R; service through new product introduction every year (two new launches annually), (b) aggressively grow in the adjacencies (air cooler, air purifier, professional kitchen refrigeration, engineering facility management and factory E&M; projects), (c) drive higher value addition through backward integration, import substitution by in-house manufacturing and supply chain efficiency, (d) incubate new business lines in the professional electronics segment by adding new agencies and forming JVs, and (e) invest in overseas markets and water purifiers businesses to turn profitable by FY21. migrate from small-ticket to large-ticket orders, and being selective in choosing sites, (b) retain market leadership in the buildings segment (malls, commercial buildings) and consolidate position in the infrastructure segment (airports, metros and power transmission segment) by providing superior after-sales service and enhancing customer engagement, (c) evaluate entry into select adjacencies with higher-margin opportunities within factory E&M;, industrial EPC and infrastructure MEP.

For 2QFY2019, Blue Star posted results above our expectations on the top-line front; however, bottom-line numbers came below expectations. The company has reported 21.5% top-line growth, whereas PAT was down ~14% yoy due to losses in JV and higher interest cost. Outlook & Valuation: We forecast Blue Star to report top-line CAGR of ~13..

For 1QFY2019, Blue Star posted results below our expectations on the top-line, however, it reported healthy growth on the bottom-line front. The company has reported flat top-line growth (after adjustment of GST, revenue growth was ~7%) and PAT was up ~20% yoy. Outlook & Valuation: We forecast Blue Star to report top-line CAGR of ~13%..

Blue Star (BLSTR IN) has reported a decent performance in 1QFY19 with its consolidated PAT rising by 20% YoY to Rs916mn. Blended EBITDA margin improved by 163bps YoY to 9.1% with 235bps rise in project business' margin. The margin of Unitary Products (UPs) rose by 37bps to 11.4%. Revenue declined by 1% YoY to Rs15.1 bn (+7% YoY on Like-to-Like basis) due to 4% YoY decline in revenue from unitary product segment, while revenue of projects business increased by 3% YoY. The revenue of room AC business declined by 10% (vs. 13% industry degrowth) owing to low demand led by soft summer and unseasonal rains. Its order book stood at Rs21.2bn (+8%) as of 1QFY19-end. Looking ahead, the Management sees Unitary Product segment margin at 9.5%-10.5% (vs. 8.8% in FY18) led by higher realisation, better leverage for...

Our key takeaways Sales in April were weak and demand was subdued on rain/hailstorms across the country. This continued into May, but finally, the weather has turned warm in Telangana, Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat and North India over the past week. Rains continue in Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and the North East. Yet, industry sales are unlikely to decline in 1QFY19. Year-on-year, sales are likely to be flat in 1QFY19. In FY19, Blue Star now expects the room AC industry to grow 15%, despite the muted 1Q summer sales; it had earlier estimated 15-20% growth. sales expected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% over the next few years, (b) consumer financing via EMIs, and (c) rising income levels. These would continue to drive demand for ACs, despite seasonal variations. Blue Star expects inverter ACs to be 60% of the room AC market by FY20. For Blue Star, inverter ACs are likely to be 45% of sales in FY19.

For 4QFY2018, Blue Star posted results in-line with our expectations both on top line and bottom-line fronts. The revenue was higher by 7.8% y-o-y and PAT was up 27.4% y-o-y. During the quarter, cooling and the unitary products has been the key performer for the company. Operating margin improved by 87bps on account of lower material cost..

Given the unseasonal rains across various regions, we believe the RAC industry could report lower growth rates in the range of 5-10% in FY19 v/s 20% as earlier anticipated. We downgrade FY19E/20E EPS estimates by 34% and 11% respectively on lower revenue and margin assumption. Recommend SELL with target price of Rs624 (SoTP). In-line performance: Revenues increased by 14% yoy (adjusting for excise duties) to Rs14.7bn. EBIDTAM increased by 87bps yoy to 6.1% and PAT increased by 38% yoy to Rs512mn. The EMP & PAC segment reported muted growth of 6.7% to Rs7.2bn impacted by sluggish project execution and lower order inflows. The EBITM however...

Sales grew 8% YoY to INR14.8b, in line with our estimate of INR15b. EBITDA of INR927m (+23% YoY) came in below our estimate of INR1.1b due to a miss on operating margin (-80bp YoY to 6.3% v/s est. of 7.1%). Adj. net profit rose 23.6% YoY to INR460m, below our estimate of INR602m. BLSTR's market share stood at 11.5% for FY18. For full-year FY18, sales stood at INR47.5b (+8% YoY), EBIDTA at INR2.9b (+21.3% YoY) and adj. PAT at INR1.4b (+17% YoY).

our estimate of INR3.2b. Revenue in this segment was adversely impacted by lower restocking by dealers and muted demand during the festive season. Room AC segment grew 5% YoY (in line with market growth), while VRF segment increased 10% YoY. EBIT margin shrunk to 5.4% from 6.8% in the yearago period on account of marketing investment made by the company in the water purifier segment and higher raw material cost. BLSTR's market share in room ACs remained stable at 11% in 2QFY18; it expects to take this share to 12% once the market stabilizes. EMP segment's revenue declined 10% YoY to INR5.0b, impacted by delayed...

BSL is well-positioned to capitalise on its brand and distribution strengths, to venture into other product categories like water coolers/ purifiers, air coolers/ purifiers. The base product (ACs) is expected to grow at ~20% over the next three to four years, by when other product categories would also mature. We expect a revenue/PAT CAGR of ~17%/45% respectively over FY17-19E, based on which we arrive at a FV of Rs 634/share