Blue Star Ltd. share price target

Blue Star’s (BLSTR) 4QFY26 revenue was up marginally ~1% YoY to INR40.7b (~7% miss). However, EBITDA increased ~17% YoY to INR3.3b (+9% vs. our est.), led by cost rationalization measures and certain deferred discretionary costs.

Blue Star (BLSTR)’s stock rallied over 25% in the last two weeks from its recent low due to an improving demand outlook with rising temperatures across regions, following unseasonal rains at the end of Mar’26.

EBITDA holds steady on cost control, even as revenue growth remains modest amid demand headwinds

Blue Star’s (BLSTR) 3QFY26 revenue grew ~4% YoY to INR29.3b (~5% miss), led by ~9% YoY growth in EMPS, while PES/UCP revenue declined ~7%/1% YoY. EBITDA grew ~5% YoY to INR2.2b (in line).

Leading player in commercial refrigeration with steady market share gainsin RAC: Blue Star (BLSTR) is steadily gaining market share in the Indian RAC segment. Its share improved to ~14% in FY25 from ~7% in FY14.

Ahead of our/ consensus estimates, revenue was in line while EBITDA was a beat (+18%), led by cost-saving measures

Topline beat Street/ our estimates, EMP sustains growth momentum offsetting decline in Unitary products

Blue Star’s room AC (RAC) business was hit by unexpected tailwinds of early rains. UCP segment clocked a decline of 13%, which is ideally lower as compared to peers. Management highlighted that they have gained market share that is slightly above 14%.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs 1,930/share, implying an upside of 10% from the CMP

We met with the management of Blue Star (BLSTR) to understand recent trends in the AC industry and mgmt outlook for FY26. BLSTR expects ~20- 25% YoY revenue drop in RAC in Q1FY26 due to a high base and unseasonal rains, partly offset by steady growth in CACs (~10-12%, led by data centers) and Commercial Refrigeration (~15-20%, led by visi coolers/freezers).

Major player in MEP (Mechanical, Electrical, Plumbing, and Firefighting) solutions.

Topline jumps 20.4% in Q2, with gross margin rising 170bps due to better product mix and material cost reductions

Q1FY25 revenues grew by 28.7% to Rs 2,865 crore in line with our estimate of Rs 2,895 crore.
Unitary products segment (room ACs and commercial refrigeration) grew by 44% to Rs 1,729 crore
on increased demand due to soaring temperatures and a harsh summer

Monthly Economic Buffet: Economic Round-up April 2024. ACC: Healthy performance largely priced in; maintain HOLD. KEII: Addressing capacity limitations; maintain HOLD. AJP: Strong margins; growth momentum to continue. BLSTR: UCP growth strong, margin outlook healthy. DABUR: Steady performance during the quarter. Metals & Mining: Steel margin pick-up beyond Q2CY24: ArcelorMittal

Blue Star’s consolidated revenues came in marginally higher than consensus estimates, led by strong growth in unitary products. OPM marginally lagged, while net earnings came in better than expectations.

MSIL: Healthy all-round performance raise to BUY. DRRD: Buoyant US sales drive performance. VOLT: UCP improving, Qatar business a dampener. DIXON: Mobile business dials up growth; maintain BUY. KJC: Soft demand, intense competition mar quarter. BLSTR: Purple patch continues; maintain BUY. KECI: Pipeline robust, margin improvement delayed. ABSLAMC: Double-digit growth but market share bleed continues. Metals & Mining: Jindal Stainless: Management meet takeaways

Strong topline growth of 25% YoY in Q3 aided by festive season sales; margin expansion continues