Blue Dart Express Ltd. share price target

Air express logistics companies benefit significantly from a reduction in the prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) as ATF costs account for 35-45% of their total operating costs. ATF price declined 6% MoM (-12% YoY) in Apr’25 to INR83,575/kl.

Blue Dart Express (BDE)’s revenue grew 9% YoY to INR15.1b, in line with our estimate. The company handled 0.34m tons of cargo volumes (+12% YoY) in 3QFY25. The realization dipped 2% YoY to INR42.1/kg. It carried 96.6m shipments in 3Q.

Blue Dart Express Ltd. (BDE) has announced price hikes ranging from 9% to 12%, effective Jan’25.

After slow growth in FY24 and 1QFY25, demand is expected to pick up for the express logistics segment. Long-term growth is expected to be primarily driven by increasing urbanization, rising consumer demand.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY25 performance undershot our estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin was down 35bps (202bps QoQ) at 15.4%; 2) tonnage growth of 10% YoY and shipments growth of 7.3% YoY.

Blue Dart Express’s (BDE) revenue grew 8% YoY to INR13.4b in 1QFY25 (in line). BDE handled 0.31m tons of cargo volume (+9.6% YoY).

BDE reported a strong quarter as consolidated sales grew 9% YoY and EBITDA
margins expanded 70bps YoY, on the back of higher utilization of new aircrafts
and general price increase undertaken in Q4

Blue Dart Express’s (BDE) revenue grew 8.7% YoY to INR13.2b in 4QFY24 (in
line). BDE handled 0.29m tons of cargo volume (+8.7% YoY). The realization
remained flat YoY at INR 44.5/kg. It carried 91m shipments in 4Q.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q2FY24 EBITDA surpassed our estimates by 9.2%. Key points: 1) Number of shipments and tonnage rose ~13.6% YoY and 2.5% YoY, respectively; 2) EBITDA margin improved to 16.8% (Q2FY23: 15.4%)

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY24 EBITDA fell short of our estimate by 10%. Key points: 1) number of shipments rose ~9% and tonnage 2.6% YoY; 2) both revenue and EBITDA per shipment continue to decline; 3) EBITDA margin contracted to 15.4% (Q1FY23: 20.7%) – lowest since Q1FY20 – on unfavourable price-cost impact despite the benefit of lower ATF prices.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q4FY23 performance undershot street estimates by 6%; however, it was broadly in line with our estimates. Key points: 1) Number of shipments rose ~12% YoY to 82mn, possibly due to higher share of road cargoes; 2) realisation/kg remained static QoQ, implying insufficient absorption of price hikes taken in Jan-23.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q3FY23 performance undershot our and street estimates by 13% and 14%, respectively, owing to higher costs. Key points: 1) Number of shipments rose ~18% YoY to 87.9mn, possibly due to higher share of road cargoes; 2) higher costs resulted in gross margin/kg contracting 25% YoY (0.6% QoQ) to Rs13.2/kg.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q2FY23 performance was a slight miss on consensus estimates owing to higher costs.