Blue Dart Express Ltd. share price target

Blue Dart Express (BDE)’s revenue grew ~15% YoY to INR16.5b in 1QFY27 (5% above our estimate). EBITDA margin came in at 10.3% in 1QFY27 (up 340bp YoY and 220bp QoQ) vs. our estimate of 10%.

Blue Dart Express’s (BDE) revenue grew ~7% YoY to INR15.5b in 2QFY26 (in line). The company handled 0.36m tons of cargo volumes (+6% YoY) in 2QFY26.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY26 performance was below consensus estimates. Number of shipments rose 4.4% YoY while volume (in tonnage) grew 8.6% YoY.

Blue Dart Express (BDE) revenue grew 7% YoY to INR14.4b (in line). The company handled 0.34m tons of cargo volumes(+9% YoY) in 1QFY26.

Blue Dart Express (BDE)’s revenues grew 7% YoY to INR14.2b (6% below our estimate). The company handled 0.33m tons of cargo volumes(+11% YoY) in 4QFY25.

Air express logistics companies benefit significantly from a reduction in the prices of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) as ATF costs account for 35-45% of their total operating costs. ATF price declined 6% MoM (-12% YoY) in Apr’25 to INR83,575/kl.

Blue Dart Express (BDE)’s revenue grew 9% YoY to INR15.1b, in line with our estimate. The company handled 0.34m tons of cargo volumes (+12% YoY) in 3QFY25. The realization dipped 2% YoY to INR42.1/kg. It carried 96.6m shipments in 3Q.

Blue Dart Express Ltd. (BDE) has announced price hikes ranging from 9% to 12%, effective Jan’25.

After slow growth in FY24 and 1QFY25, demand is expected to pick up for the express logistics segment. Long-term growth is expected to be primarily driven by increasing urbanization, rising consumer demand.

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY25 performance undershot our estimates. Key points: 1) EBITDA margin was down 35bps (202bps QoQ) at 15.4%; 2) tonnage growth of 10% YoY and shipments growth of 7.3% YoY.

Blue Dart Express’s (BDE) revenue grew 8% YoY to INR13.4b in 1QFY25 (in line). BDE handled 0.31m tons of cargo volume (+9.6% YoY).

Blue Dart Express’s (BDE) revenue grew 8.7% YoY to INR13.2b in 4QFY24 (in
line). BDE handled 0.29m tons of cargo volume (+8.7% YoY). The realization
remained flat YoY at INR 44.5/kg. It carried 91m shipments in 4Q.

BDE reported a strong quarter as consolidated sales grew 9% YoY and EBITDA
margins expanded 70bps YoY, on the back of higher utilization of new aircrafts
and general price increase undertaken in Q4

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q2FY24 EBITDA surpassed our estimates by 9.2%. Key points: 1) Number of shipments and tonnage rose ~13.6% YoY and 2.5% YoY, respectively; 2) EBITDA margin improved to 16.8% (Q2FY23: 15.4%)

Blue Dart Express’ (BDE) Q1FY24 EBITDA fell short of our estimate by 10%. Key points: 1) number of shipments rose ~9% and tonnage 2.6% YoY; 2) both revenue and EBITDA per shipment continue to decline; 3) EBITDA margin contracted to 15.4% (Q1FY23: 20.7%) – lowest since Q1FY20 – on unfavourable price-cost impact despite the benefit of lower ATF prices.