Bharat Forge Ltd. share price target

Bharat Forges (BHFC)s standalone exports witnessed 12% YoY growth (after 5 successive quarters of YoY decline), while domestic revenue was up 17% YoY. EBITDA margins improved by 80bps QoQ, driven by lower other expenses.

Medium term revenue outlook is strong in US Class-8 trucks, PV exports and non-auto. Further, upcoming BS6 emission norms can aid a sharp increase in content.

Revenue grew by 5.4% to Rs. 919.4 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. On the other hand, it decreased by 11.35% when compared with Q3FY16.

Bharat Forges (BHFC) 3QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.4bn (-17% YoY, 10% QoQ) was above expectations. Net revenue at Rs 9.4bn (-11% YoY) was in line with estimates owing to a decline in exports (-26% YoY). EBITDA margins improved by 100bps QoQ, driven by lower employee costs and expansion of gross margins ( 180bps QoQ).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Forge reported its Q3FY17 numbers, which were below our estimates. Net revenues came in at | 944 crore, down 11% YoY, up 5.9% QoQ against our estimate of | 954 crore Domestic revenues came in at | 434 crore (up 8.4% YoY, 3.2% QoQ), against our estimate of | 450 crore. Domestic revenue growth was driven by industrial sector, which grew 35% YoY to | 175 crore Export revenues declined 22.9% YoY, up 7.5% YoY to | 485 crore...

We anticipate exponential growth in key business areas of Bharat Forge in the coming quarters.

We have cut our FY17-19E estimates by 4-9% to factor in weak auto/industrial exports. We revise our recommendation to NEUTRAL with a revised TP of Rs 943 (25x Dec-18E).

Bharat Forge (BFL) is the world largest forging companies with presence across automotive, power, oil & gas (O&G), construction & mining, rail, marine and aerospace industries.

Bharat Forges (BFL) 2QFY17 APAT at Rs 1.3bn (-28% YoY, -3% QoQ) came almost in line. Net sales at Rs 8.9bn (-20% YoY) were marginally lower than estimates owing to lower-than-expected tonnage (-15% YoY). EBITDA margins saw 130bps QoQ expansion on efficient cost control and improved productivity. Industrial demand continued to sag.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Bharat Forge reported its Q2FY17 numbers, which were above our estimates. Net revenues came in at | 891 crore, down 21% YoY, 1.5% QoQ vs. our estimate of | 863 crore. Domestic revenues declined 12.5% QoQ to | 421 crore as it was impacted by the sequential decline in M&HCV; demand. Export revenues grew 10.7% YoY to | 452 crore, driven by continued ramp up in PV business & initial signs of recovery in industry segment. The beat on the revenue...