InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. share price target

InterGlobe Aviation's (IndiGo) Q3FY21 RASK stood at Rs 3.2.

INDIGO reported better-than-estimated ASK/RPK growth in 2QFY21, while yield was lower than estimates. This resulted in-line revenue for 2QFY21. INDIGO's cash burn reduced to INR250m in 2QFY21 (from ~INR300m as of 30th Jun'20) as the company undertook cost reduction initiatives for leasing, payroll and other costs (like non-aircraft rentals, IT costs, etc.). Relatively smaller increase in supplementary rentals to capacity with further reduction in employee cost and huge forex gain led to beat on our EBITDA est. at INR2.1b. Going forward, employee expenses are likely to increase (it stood at INR6.9b in...

InterGlobe Aviation's (IndiGo) Q2FY21 RASK was in line at Rs 3.1.

sumption of aircraft operations and likely market share gains. Cost rationalization and healthy cash positions will help to tide over the crisis situation. Replacement of old aircraft with 15% more fuel efficient fleet to benefit in medium term. Management focus expansion of international footprints and deeper penetration into Tier 2-3 cities, to drive growth. Though aircraft operations have re-started, FY21 is expected be a tough...

18 August 2020 According to the recent IMF estimates (Jun20), Indias GDP growth for 2021 is estimated at ~6.0%, higher than the global economic growth of ~5.4% for 2021. INDIGO has highlighted that medium-to long-term growth prospects for the Indian economy remain robust, and the return of normalcy in airline travel Under-penetration of airline travel in India currently Rise in the working-class population Expansion in the middle-income demographic group in the country In FY20, for INDIGO, ASK growth stood at +19% YoY and RPK growth at +18% YoY. initiatives, liquidity enhancement and improvement in the fleet mix. Most of the new aircraft would be financed through an operating lessor model, generating significant liquidity in FY21-FY22. Employee cost was up 47% YoY to INR47b in FY20. The company expects employee cost to be 30% lower v/s pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of FY21 with the undertaken payroll control initiatives.

Despite higher cash burn of ~INR300m per day, the company was successful in its initiatives to create additional liquidity and thus realized ~35% of its earlier target of INR3040b, leading to free cash reduction of ~INR14b (v/s reported loss of INR28.4b). INDIGO plans to replace CEO aircrafts gradually, as earlier scheduled, by the end of Dec22; hence we build ASK of 85.8b for FY22 (-11% to FY20 For FY22E, we assume sentiment would improve from 3QFY22, resulting in the normalization of PLF at ~75% (although, expected PLF remains low at 75% for the full-year FY22 v/s average PLF of ~86% over FY1620). To note, the fare bands were recently further extended till the end of Nov20, and the permanent enforcement of fare bands could be a huge dampener on the Aviation industry as a whole, weakening sentiment for the regulated We have built-in a crude price forecast of USD40/bbl / USD50/bbl for INDIGOs fuel cost constitutes ~35% of the total cost (in FY20), and according to our EPS sensitivity, aircraft fuel savings of even 10% would translate into an EPS change of ~14% for INDIGO in FY22.

medium term, IndiGo is focused on optimizing costs and enhance liquidity by 1) Exploring new networks and revenue model (Charter, Cargo etc) 2) Reducing unit costs by cutting down all possible discretionary expenses 3) efficient utilization of fleet 4) 30% reduction in employee bill through mix of salary cuts, leave without pay and layoffs and 5) Monetizing owned aircrafts through SLB. Through these initiatives, the management aims to generate liquidity to the tune of Rs50-60bn over the year. IndiGo's plan of returning 123 less efficient A320ceos over the next 2 years while continuing to induct fuelefficient A320neo family will further help reduce unit costs. We expect FY21...

IndiGo is focusing on 1) Reducing unit costs by cutting down all possible discretionary expenses 2) Efficient utilization of fleet 3) Right sizing capacity in line with demand and 4) explore new networks and revenue model. Through these initiatives, the management aims to generate additional liquidity to the tune of Rs30-40bn in the coming 9 months. With 123 less efficient A320ceos to be returned over the next 2 years and given the uncertain demand environment, we do not expect the rate of induction of fuelefficient A320neo family to match the exit of A320ceos. We expect FY21 capacity to decline by 46% YoY while FY22 capacity is likely to be 90% of...

Introduction of price brands based on duration of flight After nearly 2 months of being grounded, Govt has finally announced resumption of domestic air travel from May 25, 2020, in a phased manner. Initially airlines shall operate at 1/3rd of the approved 2020 summer schedule and the number of flights will increase in a calibrated manner. However, in an unprecedented move, the Govt has introduced price bands on routes. With Q2 traditionally being the weakest of all quarters, price band is likely to further hamper airlines from achieving breakeven fares/load factors. With...