InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. share price target

INDIGO reported a beat on our estimates primarily driven by higher-thanestimated yield (at INR4.4), with RPK being 7% above our estimates. ASK was only 5% lower to pre-COVID levels (of 3QFY20). The Board has appointed Mr. Rahul Bhatia as the Managing Director of the company for five years. Management highlighted that the 3QFY22 capacity reached 88% of preCOVID level with the same being 97% during Dec'21. International capacity...

We interacted with IndiGo wherein they articulated their long term plan of responsibly maximizing unit revenues with sustained focus on reducing unit costs. Post pandemic, IndiGo continues to pursue & develop multiple revenue streams in the form of 1) fortifying domestic network aided by regional expansion (Fleet of 30+ ATR) 2) widening international network with...

Improved vaccination drive, decline in infections and relaxation of capacity cap to 85% from 65% led to higher passenger load factor. We expect passenger traffic growth to pick-up at higher pace given lower risk of Covid infections, acceleration in vaccination, festive season and recovery in tourism & corporate travel. Replacement of old aircrafts with 15% more fuel efficient fleets is expected to accelerate further, will lead to lower operating cost. We remain positive on the stock in the long term, given expansion of capacities, penetration into Tier 2-3 cities, focus on route optimization and likely market share gains post Covid era....

We tone down IndiGo's FY22 loss by 9.4% while increase FY23/FY24 earnings by 6.4%/ 15.1% given 1) Swift recovery post 2nd Covid wave 2) permission to operate 100% domestic capacity by MoCA 3) strong yield environment across markets and 4) more air bubble arrangements aiding international operations IndiGo's 2Q losses narrowed sequentially as industry witnessed a swift recovery post 2nd Covid wave aided by 1) rising consumer confidence with...

IndiGo's Q4FY21 RASK came in at Rs 3.3, EBITDAR at Rs 7.3bn was hit by rising fuel costs and the company suffered a Rs 11.6bn net loss

27% QoQ, led by recovery in passenger growth. Profitability was impacted by higher fuel cost, depreciation, lease rentals, & lower other income. Q1FY22 profitability is likely to be impacted by Covid second wave given sharp drop in passenger growth in April & May. However, we expect passenger traffic to pick-up gradually starting from Q2FY22 & expect revenue growth to normalize in H2FY22 led by acceleration in vaccination and as impact of Covid second wave subsides. Faster replacement of old aircrafts with 15% more fuel efficient fleets will improve profitability in the medium term....

INDIGO reported an in line ASK (19.2b), PLF (70%), RPK (13.5b), and yield (INR3.7), while miss to our estimates was led by higher fuel cost. Air passenger demand touched a record high in Feb'21 after the lifting of COVID-related restrictions, although the second wave impacted demand in May'21. Cash burn rose to INR190m in 4Q (from INR150m in 3QFY21). Cash burn is expected to be higher in 1QFY22 as daily passenger demand falls to ~80,000 passengers from the highs of ~300,000 at the end of Feb'21. INDIGO expects Feb'21 demand to return by the end of 3QFY22....

The recent spike in COVID-19 cases in India weighs heavily on the Aviation sector, with flyers confidence tanking, leading to further delays in the recovery of demand. Daily passenger demand dropped by ~13% to ~246,600 passengers in the last week of Mar'21 (v/s the last week of Feb'21 when the peak was recorded), resulting in no MoM improvement in traffic (still down ~37% to pre-COVID levels)....

INDIGO: Rising fuel costs to burn earnings; cut to SELL. CBK: Earnings beat but asset quality risks persist. RBK: Weak asset quality; elevated provisions maintain SELL. MSIL: Operational performance along expected lines; maintain SELL

We increase IndiGo's FY22/FY23 earnings by 7.5%/ 7.1% and assign Accumulate rating given 1) sustained scale up of operations 2) broad based recovery in domestic demand aided by non-metro cities and 3) improving load factors on the back of rising consumer confidence IndiGo's management remains optimistic about sustainability of demand momentum and expects to operate at 75-80% of LY capacity in 4Q21 while...