VRL Logistics Ltd. share price target

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q3FY25 EBITDA performance was 26%/23% ahead of our and consensus’ numbers. Realisation (up 10% YoY) led improvement in both EBITDA and EBITDA margin, volume grew 1% YoY/QoQ (9MFY25: 4% YoY).

VRLL initiated a price hike of 10% in Jun’24 (blended hike of 6% implemented after negotiations). This would help to offset the cost increases caused by toll, labor charges, etc.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q1FY25 EBITDA was 14.4% and 17.5% below our and consensus estimates, respectively. Shipments rose 6.8% YoY (below expected) on manpower unavailability.

VRLL’s Q1FY25 results were impacted by execution challenges faced due to unfavorable externalities such as driver shortage due to general elections.

VRL Logistics (VRL)’s 1QFY25 revenue grew 8% YoY (-5% QoQ) to ~INR7.3b (in line). Volumes increased 7% YoY to 1.07m tons in 1QFY25.

Tonnage growth in FY24 was hit by a slowdown in agro and textile commodity
volume in southern states, which contribute ~40% to tonnage. Amid general
elections in 1QFY25 and a severe driver shortage, tonnage growth is expected
to be subdued.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q4FY24 EBITDA was 12.4%/7.8% ahead of our/consensus estimates. Key points: 1) Shipments grew 9.6% YoY (better than expected).

VRL Logistics (VRL)’s 4QFY24 revenue grew 10% YoY/4% QoQ to ~INR7.7b (in
line with our estimate). Volumes increased ~10% YoY to 1.13m tons in
4QFY24.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q1FY24 performance missed our and street estimates by 3% and 8% respectively owing to lower volumes. Key takeaways: i) one-off factors impacted volumes by 4%; 2) realisation stayed flat QoQ as the company kept its pricing strategy unchanged; 3) capex in Q1FY24 was at INR 870mn, mainly due to addition of new vehicles; 4) fuel sourcing from refineries increased resulting in cost advantage.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q4FY23 performance was in line with our estimates. Key takeaways: i) EBITDA margin of GT segment expanded 30bps QoQ to 16%; ii) volume rose 16% YoY (2.2% QoQ) at 1,031kte; 3) added 57 new branches in Q4FY23; 4) net debt rose Rs381mn YoY owing to buyback of shares amounting to Rs613mn in Q4FY23.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q3FY23 performance was in line with our estimates. Key takeaways: i) volumes in goods transport (GT) segment surged to their all-time highs while decline in EBITDA/te was arrested; ii) GT business’ EBITDA margin expanded 90bps QoQ; iii) new branches added post-covid accounted for ~12% of total tonnage in Q3FY23.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) Q2FY23 result has undershot street estimates. Key takeaways: i) Volumes in goods transport (GT) segment rose 14% YoY and 7% QoQ.

VRL Logistics’ (VRL) overall performance in Q1FY23 was in line with our expectations.