Balkrishna Industries Ltd. share price target

Balkrishna Industries’ (BKT) 1Q earnings at INR4.3b were ahead of our estimate of INR3.7b, primarily due to an MTM gain of INR570m and higher other income.

The company's capital expenditure (capex) estimate for FY27 is Rs. 1,500-1,800cr, along with an annual maintenance cost of Rs. ~200cr. BKT's performance in Q4FY26 reinforces confidence in the resilience of its core off continued strength in India, supporting a healthier volume outlook. The longer-term investment case is supported by expansion in the on-highway portfolio and the scaling up of the carbon black business, which should gradually diversify revenue streams and strengthen the operating platform. While the near-term earnings trajectory may be tempered by rising raw material prices, higher freight expenses...

We believe Balkrishna Industries to grow it’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT at a CAGR of 10%/13%/12% over FY26-FY28E, which translates the stock trading at 27x FY28E. We value the stock at 29x implying a Target Price of 2,350 (9.4% Upside).

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) 3Q earnings at INR3.8b were above our estimate of INR2.8b, primarily due to MTM gains of INR360m and higher other income.

Near-term demand weakness persists at its core OHT business: BKT operates in a niche off highway tyre (OHT) segment which finds application in agriculture and mining/industrial purposes. Currently it has ~5-6% market share in the global OHT space and has been long aspiring to take it to ~8-10% in years to come. BKT however faces persistent nearterm demand weakness in its key markets of the US and Europe due to global macro uncertainties. Recent US trade policies have increased tariffs on Indian firms from 10% to 50% since August 2025, which sharply increases cost pressures and risks a significant reduction in US boundshipment, representing ~15% of its revenue. Consequently, company...

While near-term demand remains uneven across international markets, management commentary suggests gradual stabilization supported by normalization in freight, moderating raw material costs, and improved replacement demand.

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) 2Q earnings at INR2.7b were below our estimate of INR3.7b due to an adverse mix, the impact of US tariffs, and weak demand.

BKT's sales volume was impacted by tariff-related disruptions, leading to a volatile ordering cycle in April. Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical challenges in key export markets have dampened customer sentiment. However, the company expects the ordering cycle to normalise with a permanent tariff structure. BKT has been gaining brand acceptance in the Indian market and aims to enhance it further by launching into the PCR and CV segments. With expansions in the OHT segment...

Black & White

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) delivered an operationally in-line performance in 3QFY25, with Fx gains driving an Adj. PAT beat at INR4.4b (up 43% YoY, vs. est. INR3.8b).

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s 2QFY25 was operationally better than expected with EBITDA of INR6.2b (+13% YoY, est. INR5.9b), led by better ASP and lower promotional expenses.

Quarterly Update Q1FY25

A 4.7% beat in topline resulted in in-line EBITDA, though PAT was 14.3% above estimates on higherthan-expected other income.

Quarterly Update Q4FY24

Strong earnings beat on robust volume growth (+12.8% q-o-q), healthy realisations (+3.9% q-o-q), and sharp gross margin expansion (+160bps q-o-q). Revenue and EBITDA exceeded estimates by 16.2% and 18.2%, respectively.

Quarterly Update Q3FY24

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s Q2FY24 EBITDAM, at 24.4%, was up 170bps QoQ driven by a combination of lower raw material basket (RMB) cost, better product mix and favourable hedge rate. Post-inventory destocking at the dealer level in the last few quarters, inventory is now at normalised levels of 2-3 months, from highs of ~4 months.

Quarterly Update Q2FY24