Balkrishna Industries Ltd. share price target

While near-term demand remains uneven across international markets, management commentary suggests gradual stabilization supported by normalization in freight, moderating raw material costs, and improved replacement demand.

Balkrishna Industries’ (BIL) 2Q earnings at INR2.7b were below our estimate of INR3.7b due to an adverse mix, the impact of US tariffs, and weak demand.

BKT's sales volume was impacted by tariff-related disruptions, leading to a volatile ordering cycle in April. Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical challenges in key export markets have dampened customer sentiment. However, the company expects the ordering cycle to normalise with a permanent tariff structure. BKT has been gaining brand acceptance in the Indian market and aims to enhance it further by launching into the PCR and CV segments. With expansions in the OHT segment...

Black & White

Balkrishna Industries (BIL) delivered an operationally in-line performance in 3QFY25, with Fx gains driving an Adj. PAT beat at INR4.4b (up 43% YoY, vs. est. INR3.8b).

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s 2QFY25 was operationally better than expected with EBITDA of INR6.2b (+13% YoY, est. INR5.9b), led by better ASP and lower promotional expenses.

Quarterly Update Q1FY25

A 4.7% beat in topline resulted in in-line EBITDA, though PAT was 14.3% above estimates on higherthan-expected other income.

Quarterly Update Q4FY24

Strong earnings beat on robust volume growth (+12.8% q-o-q), healthy realisations (+3.9% q-o-q), and sharp gross margin expansion (+160bps q-o-q). Revenue and EBITDA exceeded estimates by 16.2% and 18.2%, respectively.

Quarterly Update Q3FY24

Balkrishna Industries (BIL)’s Q2FY24 EBITDAM, at 24.4%, was up 170bps QoQ driven by a combination of lower raw material basket (RMB) cost, better product mix and favourable hedge rate. Post-inventory destocking at the dealer level in the last few quarters, inventory is now at normalised levels of 2-3 months, from highs of ~4 months.

Quarterly Update Q2FY24

Indian OHT exports in Aug’23 improved 4%/1% MoM/YoY and now is back in line with average monthly exports in CY23. Agri segment exports increased 6% MoM to ~USD 90mn as against OTR segment’s exports being at their highest in CY23 at USD 52mn, flat MoM. With export base reducing substantially from Aug’23, YoY, industry has shifted from a declining trajectory to a growing one.

Indian OHT exports improved sequentially by 12% in Jul’23 (in line with average monthly exports in CY23), though were down ~20% YoY. Agri segment exports increased 4% MoM to ~USD 85mn as against OTR segment exports at their highest in CY23 at USD 52mn, up 27% MoM.

Weakness in OHT exports from India intensified in Jun’23 and touched their lowest in past 2 years, down 30% YoY to USD 122mn. This was due to continued weak demand, impact of cyclone in Gujarat and deflationary pricing. A week’s production loss from the leader with an average market share of 50%, implies overall exports got hit by ~12.5% -- adjusted for which, it was largely in line with past 6-month average export level.