VIP Industries Ltd. share price target

We present an Investment Idea on VIP Industries (VIP) with a fair value in the range of Rs.550-600. The company is the undisputed market leader in the organized luggage industry with a market share of ~46%. Given the company's presence across different product categories, pricing points and wide distribution platform, we believe the company is in a sweet spot to capitalize on the growth with economies opening up. Further, adding to our enthusiasm are strong cost-cutting initiatives and an increase in sourcing from Bangladesh. These initiatives coupled with strong FCF generation and...

While our FY22 estimates have undergone a massive cut as 2 nd wave has derailed the recovery process; our FY23 figures are broadly intact as we expect improvement in demand environment over the next 12 months. We believe there are clear near term margin headwinds amid aggressive discounting and RM cost inflation. Unless demand environment improves margins will continue to remain under pressure due to inferior sales mix (higher share of mass/value products which have lower margin). However, we believe VIP has done well on the cost management front (fixed cost savings...

We introduce FY24 estimates and believe, VIP will be able to bounce back to its leadership position in the industry thus driving us to upgrade the stock to BUY (HOLD earlier) with a revised TP of Rs. 415/share (earlier Rs. 330) based on FY24E EPS.

The company has implemented close to ~ | 170 crore fixed cost savings in FY21 (overall opex down 51% YoY in FY21). VIP believes ~50% (| 80-85 crore) would be sustainable in FY22E. Given the near term headwinds and Q1 being critical for VIP, we reduce our revenue estimates for FY22E. We broadly maintain our estimates for FY23E as we expect improved traction in the domestic travel industry from H2FY22 onwards. While revenue recovery may take longer, structural changes in fixed overheads will lead to faster recovery in profitability terms. The company is well placed on the liquidity...

VIP took price hike of ~6% from March 01 to counter inflationary pressures. Recently, we conducted some channel checks (interacted with few distributors and an MD of one unlisted company) in the luggage space to get a pulse of current demand trends. Our checks reveal 1) demand in 4QFY21 benefitted from gradual reopening of schools in Jan/Feb (augured well for backpack sales) coupled with shift in market share from unorganized to...

We cut our EPS estimates by 7.5%/2.1% for FY22E/FY23E respectively amid aggressive discounting (higher channel inventory due to low demand) and RM cost inflation (input costs are up ~60-70% on QoQ basis). Our earnings cut is steeper for FY22E, as discounting and inflationary pressures are unlikely to sustain beyond 12 months. In addition, we have r e-aligned our borrowing forecast (VIP aims to be debt free by July/Aug) and have baked in the benefits of cost reduction program (targeted savings of ~Rs1.8bn in FY21E; 50% is sustainable in nature) resulting in 220bps EBITDA margin...

In a group call we hosted recently, management of VIP Industries highlighted 1) timeline of ~12-18 months for sales to revert to pre-COVID levels 2) plans to reduce cost by ~1.8bn in FY21E (~50% of the reduction is expected to be sustainable in nature) and 3) pressure on GM in FY21 (replica of 1HFY21) given higher discounts and reduction in share of Bangladesh operations. Amid indications of slightly back-ended recovery we cut our sales estimates by 5%/9%/6% for FY21/FY22/FY23 respectively. While we expect EBITDA loss to widen in FY21E to Rs844mn (Rs719mn earlier) and cut our FY22E EBITDA...

We revise our Revenue/PAT estimates for FY21E/22E. Maintain SELL with revised TP of Rs. 190 (earlier Rs. 165). Key upside risks to our estimate faster than expected recovery in demand, vaccine for COVID, a strong marriage season in Q3

i) The management indicated that pandemic has the hit travel industry the hardest and may have pushed the luggage industry two to three years back (luggage being proxy play), ii) to minimise cash burn, VIP has significantly rationalised fixed overheads from | 40 crore/month to | 24 core/ month, iii) it will be cutting on advertising and marketing spends and has already shut down 100 (out of 250) non-profitable EBOs, iv) liquidation of existing inventory putting pressure on gross margins, v) Bangladesh manufacturing currently utilised for manufacturing masks (run rate: | 3 crore/month) to...

Uncertain demand outlook: Q1FY21 was a washout quarter (April-May no sales) with no further improvement expected in Q2FY21 although demand in July was better than June, however, it is nowhere near pre-COVID levels as travel industry continues to be the most affected one.