UltraTech Cement Ltd. share price target

Adjusted for acquired assets in the base, the annual volume growth of 13% fails to impress. For instance, even in a demonetization-led eroded era, the reported numbers pales in expectations. The blame, as UTCEM points out, squarely falls on the shoulders of (a) sand-availability; (b) NGT interference; and (c) political...

P&F cost/t rose 15% YoY due to higher petcoke prices. However, the impact was mitigated by better efficiency due to higher proportion of WHRS. Other expenses increased 19% QoQ due to higher shutdown and maintenance expenses for the acquired units. EBITDA declined 6% QoQ to INR12.7b (est. of INR14.2b) , translating into EBITDA/ton of INR801 (-INR228/t QoQ; our estimate: INR985), and a margin of 16.7% (-3pp YoY; -3.8pp QoQ) due to lower QoQ realization. Reported PAT stood atINR4.2b (-2% QoQ), while adj. PAT came in at INR3.5b (-19% QoQ; est.INR4.6b) as INR1.04b of provision toward DMF for earlier years was reversed in other income

UltraTech's (UTCEM) Q3FY18 standalone EBITDA rose 14% YoY buoyed by 35% YoY volume growth (core volume up 14% YoY) as UTCEM capitalised on strong demand from infrastructure and low cost housing and as it has been efficiently ramping up the JPA's acquired assets. Aggressive volume push resulted in flattish NSR YoY. Improving energy consumption and logistics efficiencies partly moderated impact of rising energy cost YoY. Amid improving demand outlook, we expect UTCEM to deliver 15% volume CAGR during FY17-20E, largely led by capacity ramp-up of the acquired assets. We also expect UTCEM's...

UltraTech posted respectable earnings despite Q2FY18 being the first quarter of JPA assets consolidation. These 21.2 mnt assets are in stabilization and are ramping up with EBITDA break-even currently. EBITDA at Rs 13.5 bn was in line with our estimate of Rs 13.2 bn but 17% above consensus estimate.

Profit before Interest, Depreciation and Tax at Rs. 1,549 crores was higher by 13% vis-d-vis Rs. 1,377.54 crores in the corresponding period of the previous year. Increased depreciation and higher interest cost relating to the acquired cement plants resulted in Profit after Tax at Rs. 423.74 crores as compared to Rs. 613.64 crores in Q2FY17. This quarter continued to witness...

Acquired assets have ticked important boxes. At a cursory glance, thereby, from gains in market share to strides in operating-profit, UTCEM quells the worst-case. Add low-cost housing, a trend visible in MP and Jharkhand, makes a compelling...

UltraTech Cement's results were broadly in line with our estimates. While revenues, PAT were in line with our estimate, EBITDA remained above our estimate mainly due to lower than anticipated raw material Revenues increased 20.4% YoY to | 6,571.3 crore (vs. I-direct estimate of | 6,691.9 crore) mainly led by 17.5% YoY increase in volumes to 13.1 MT (vs. I-direct estimate of 13.6 MT) and 2.4% YoY increase in realisation to | 5,001 (vs. I-direct estimate of | 4,922) Despite one-time cost due to consolidation of Jaypee and increase in...

Maintain NEUTRAL with a TP of Rs 3,835 (12x September 2019 EV/EBITDA, US$200/t), and await better entry points. UltraTech Cement (UTCEM) delivered an EBITDA/t of Rs 1,028 (flat YoY, -13.1% QoQ, est Rs 922), a favourable outcome in the very first quarter of acquired assets integration. While the specifics of acquired assets performance were not shared, they were EBITDA accretive in 2QFY18. The beat on estimates was mainly from overheads, which were 9.9/8.3% YoY/QoQ, despite an addition of ~17 mTPA operating capacity (26% of FY17 installed base).