Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

US business pain to continue until capacity constraints are sorted US business for Q2FY17 declined 54.8% YoY at Rs3,220 mn, this decline was mainly attributable gAbilify whose exclusivity got over and severe competition in gNexium. Company plans to launch 4-7 products in FY17. We remain cautious on its launch as currently TRP has 3 approvals but have not launched the product; gDetrol LA further sales are also impacted by capacity constraints. The...

On a high base of 1QFY16, Torrent Pharma?s (TRP) top-line was down 21% YoY to Rs 15.4bn, EBITDA was at Rs 4.4bn (down 52% YoY) and PAT stood at Rs 2.9bn (down 55%YoY). The decline was largely attributed to lower gAbilify sales in 1Q. However, adjusted for one-off sales, operational performance of the base business (~25% margins) improved significantly.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues declined 20.6% YoY to | 1545 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1587.0 crore) mainly due to 51.1% YoY de-growth in the US to | 434 crore (I-direct estimate: | 497.3 crore). The decline in US sales was due to the high base of gAbilify exclusivity in Q1FY16 EBITDA margins declined 1840 bps to 28.3% (I-direct estimate: 30%)....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues grew 29.9% YoY to | 1499 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1558.6 crore) mainly due to 129.5% YoY growth in the US to | 514...

In Q3FY16, Torrent's revenues have grown by 31.8% YoY to Rs 15.4 bn (our estimates Rs 14.7 bn) on the back of better performance in US formulations market. Operating margins improved to 39.8% (higher than our estimates 35.7%) compared to 20.5% in Q3FY15 due to better gross margins, lower staff cost and overheads.

In Q2FY16, Torrent's revenues have grown by 38.9% YoY to Rs 16.9 bn (our estimates Rs 17 bn) on the back of better performance in US formulations market. Operating margins improved to 42.2% (higher than our estimates 37.4%) compared to 22.4% in Q2FY15 due to better gross margins and lower expenditure.

XX While Torrent's relatively thin US pipeline (19 ANDAs awaiting approval) is a challenge, the management sees significant scope for increasing volumes and market share in existing products when the Dahej plant becomes operational. Management hinted...

US revenues dependant on approvals: Despite Appotex approval for Abilify there is no major price action. We believe this opportunity should continue in the current year. In FY17E, Abilify revenues would be dependent on competitive landscape as there were 21 filers in this space. The company has 19 pending filings, of which 10 are niche and less competitive products. Torrent expects 5-6 approvals every year. Nexium approval is expected in Dec.15.

Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd is one of the leading pharmaceutical company having presence in Indian and global markets. The company is a dominant player in the therapeutic areas of...