Sun TV Network Ltd. share price target

We have revised up our FY21E EBITDA by 7% on lower-than-estimated cost in 2QFY21. Our FY22E revenue/EBITDA estimates are largely maintained; we factor in 11%/14% growth over FY20. Revival in earnings and a low valuation make it attractive. Maintain Buy....

New movie releases, strong subscriber revenues to drive growth Q2 results in line with expectations Sun TV's Q2 FY21 numbers came in line with our expectations as Ad revenues almost doubled sequentially while falling 29% yoy. The sequential growth was on the back of opening of economy, normalcy coming back and advertisers increasing their Ad spend. This was also a slower dip as compared to 66% fall witnessed in Q1. On the other hand, subscription revenues maintained momentum as they grew by 7.5% yoy driven by Cable TV business which went up by 15.4% yoy. IPL recorded small amount of revenues at 450 mn as only 3 matches of Sun Risers Hyderabad...

Outlook remains upbeat with guidance for double-digit subscription revenue growth in FY21/FY22. This is in spite of potential negative impact if any from NTO 2.0. We remain conservative in our estimates. Management remain committed of acceleration of investments in digital business from future-proofing perspective. But, there had...

Subscription business to remain strong, Ad business to recover, IPL an additional boost! Q1 results in line with expectations Sun TV's Q1 FY21 numbers came in line with our expectations as Ad revenues fell sharply by 66% yoy. This was due to Covid related lockdown and absence of original programming. On the other hand, subscription revenues maintained momentum. Also absence of IPL led to yoy fall, as the base year included 2.44 bn of IPL revenues. Profitability at the bottomline was impacted due to higher amortization expenses. Lower corporate Ad spending led to a steep drop in Ad revenues. Subscription revenues were up by 11.5% yoy as Cable TV revenues went up by 34.8% yoy while...

Sun TV's (SUTV) Q1FY21 was healthy led by 18/11% YoY/QoQ growth in subscription revenue. Outlook remains upbeat with guidance for double-digit subscription revenue growth in FY21/FY22. This is in spite of potential negative impact if any from NTO 2.0. We remain conservative in our estimates. Acceleration of investments in digital business from future-proofing perspective was key highlight. But, there had been disconnect and delays in intent and execution. Thus delivery would be crucial. Management expect to maintain FY20 PAT...

The Covid-19 led lockdown hit ad revenues, which fell sharply by 65.8% YoY. In the current quarter, ad revenues recovered partially and currently are at 75% of pre-Covid levels. Ad spends from FMCG, e-commerce, auto, consumer durables, pharma are seeing a pickup. Sun has reduced ad minutes to maintain ad rates and will increase it once normalcy returns. Also, original fiction programming across all languages resumed with better than pre-Covid viewership in Tamil market. The management indicated start of festive season and pent up demand will lead to recovery in ad revenues....

15 August 2020 Sun TV Network (SUNTV)s revenue fell by 45% YoY, weighed by a plunge in ad revenues and the absence of an IPL season, but partly cushioned by subscription revenue growth. EBITDA fell 39%, partly offset by no fresh content production cost and SG&A; cost rationalization. We revise our FY21/FY22E EBITDA by 9%/8% as we factor IPL earnings in FY21E, better subscription revenues, and the benefit of sharp cost rationalization. SUNTVs 1QFY21 revenues declined by 45% YoY to INR6b (in-line), largely due to the postponement of the IPL season, through which the company had generated INR2.4b in 1QFY20. EBITDA thus declined 39% YoY to INR4.2b (38% above our estimate), supported by a reduction in operating cost, and EBITDA margins expanded 670bp YoY to 68.7%. Net profit thus fell by 25% YoY to INR2.8b (51% beat); PAT margins were at 47%, supported by other income and lower opex.

28 June 2020 Slowdown in ad spend, a high base of movie revenues, and loss of IPL revenues have led to an overall drop in revenues and EBITDA, partially offset by strong growth in subscription revenues. Ad revenue is expected to drop 20% going ahead in FY21E, while subscription revenues would grow at 12% in FY21E. Revenues were lower by 17% YoY at INR7.3b (in-line), largely attributed to a fall in ad revenues by 15% YoY, a high base of movie revenues in the corresponding quarter, and nil revenues from IPL games (INR570m) as the season has been postponed on account of the COVID-19 crisis. EBITDA, thus, fell 17% YoY to INR5b (in-line), whereas EBITDA margins stood firm at 68.5% (flat YoY). Depreciation charges were higher due to high amortization charges for movie premiers; thus, PBT fell 25% YoY to INR3.2b. FY20 revenues/EBITDA fell 7%/13% YoY to INR34b/INR22b, and margins contracted by 430bps to 65.7%.

Ad revenue decline continues; recovery likely in FY22 The macroeconomic headwinds impacted ad revenues that fell sharply by 14.5% YoY. In the current quarter, ad revenue fell significantly in April during lockdown. While some rebound was witnessed in May & June, ad revenues are still at lower level. On the viewership front, all major channels extended their market share in the range of 7-10%. It benefitted from TV premiere of new movies. However, this did not result in better ad revenue generation. The management indicated a recovery in ad revenues is still one or two...

Bracing for washout FY21 but FY22 may be bumper Ad revenues to be hit hard by Covid-19 in FY21 Advertisement revenues of broadcasters have been under pressure in FY20 on account of macroeconomic challenges. Going into FY21, the Covid-19 impact is expected to result in a washout April, 2020 followed by a slow recovery and normalisation only by H2FY21 led by a benign base and gradual recovery in economy. April revenue hit will also be on account of a steep loss of market share of most GECs to Doordarshan that is now thriving...