SRF Ltd. share price target

In FY25, EBITDA grew ~7% YoY to INR28.3b, driven by growth in Chemicals (up 5%) and Performance Films & Foils (PFF) (up 45%), while Technical Textiles (TTB) saw a decline (down ~8%).

SRF (SRF IN) reported consolidated revenue of Rs43bn, reflecting a 20.8% YoY and 23.5% QoQ increase, driven by positive momentum in recently launched products, demand pick up for certain key agrochemical intermediates and robust sales of refrigerants gases leading to 50% YoY and 106% QoQ increase in specialty chemicals segment revenue. The packaging film business grew by 216% and 16% QoQ as capacity utilization for both BOPP and BOPET improved during the quarter. However, lower demand and an influx of low-cost imports...

SRF’s chemical business has surprised positively in Q4FY25 with a strong show in specialty chemicals and ref-gas; also, SRF is upbeat on demand outlook/orderbook for FY26. Ref-gas revenue should benefit from higher production with commissioning of AHF plant which was a bottleneck in FY25.

SRF posted a strong overall performance in 4QFY25, with its EBIT rising 53% YoY, led by a 3.2x/50% YoY surge in packaging film/chemical businesses.

SRF’s fluorochemicals division shows strong demand with firm pricing. The company is investing Rs. 1,100 crore in less-polluting HFO (fourth generation) for FY28 launch.

Capex for FY26 to be Rs17-19bn, rise to Rs27-30bn for FY27 We recently met with the management of SRF Limited, to understand its business prospects and get an update on key ongoing projects. The management continues to remain positive on its refrigerants business and expects R-32 realization to rise further in the near term. With a capex of Rs11bn, the 4th generation refrigerants plant is expected to come online by 2027. SRF also targets to gain 40% market share in 6-7 AIs with TAM of $1.2bn. The...

We re-iterate BUY on SRF with revised SoTP-based TP of Rs3,250 (rollover to Mar-27E; up by 4.8%), as we believe the worst is behind for all businesses of SRF and, going forward, we should see gradual pick up in specialty chemicals driven by stabilization of existing products and incremental contribution from newer products (largely Active Ingredients).

Recovery seen the chemicals business

We upgrade SRF to BUY from Add and raise our SoTP-based TP by over 19% to Rs3,100, as we believe i) the worst is behind for all of its businesses, ii) SRF is seeing gradual uptick in its specialty chemical business from existing products, and healthy contribution is expected from new AIs in FY26

SRF posted a decent overall performance in 3QFY25. However, the Chemicals business and the Packaging Films business displayed material improvement during the quarter.

SRF’s chemicals business is facing multiple headwinds from increased Chinese competition, weak demand from agro-chemical innovators, delay in new product commercialisation and drop in prices.

In Q2FY2025, revenue reached Rs. 3,424 crore, up 8% y-o-y, but down 1% q-o-q. Operating profit stood at Rs. 538 crore, reflecting a 14% y-o-y decrease and an 11% q-o-q decline.

SRF posted weak performance in 2QFY25, with a material decline in operating profitability (EBIT down 22% YoY), due to the continuous weakness in the Chemicals business (EBIT dipped 29% YoY).

SRF posted muted 1QFY25, with a material decline in operating profitability (EBIT down 20% YoY), due to the continuing weakness in the Chemical businesses.

Q1FY25 revenues rose 4% y-o-y to Rs. 3,464 crore, but fell 3% q-o-q. Operating profit totaled Rs. 603
crore, falling 13% both y-o-y and q-o-q.