Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Ltd. share price target

SAIL’s Q1FY26 reported EBITDA, at INR 27.6bn, was c.16% short of consensus estimates. This stemmed from higher other expenses on account of an INR 9.5bn one-time negative impact on inventory valuation.

We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

SAIL's Q1FY26 performance was below our expectations. Revenue declined 12% QoQ to Rs259 bn, dragged by a 15% QoQ drop in volumes. This includes 0.37 mnT traded volumes from NMDC steel contributing Rs 1.8bn to the topline. NSR improved 4% QoQ to Rs56,970/t due to higher steel prices. EBITDA declined 21% QoQ to 27bn, with EBITDA/tonne at Rs 6,076/t (-7%/10%) QoQ/YoY, impacted by one-offs including a coal re-valuation impact of Rs 1.5bn and Rs 1.73bn hit due to inflated iron ore royalty charges. Management indicated IISCO plant expansion of 4.5mnT will start from FY27, with an estimated capex of Rs 36bn to...

SAIL delivered weak operating performance in Q1FY26 due to inventory revaluation loss in RM and higher other expenses. Volumes grew 4% YoY (incl NSL's low contribution volumes, total volume growth was 13% YoY). Higher royalties and other expenses negated the benefit of higher steel prices. The average NSR grew 5% QoQ, aided by better flat and long product prices, driven...

SAIL's Q4FY25 performance exceeded our forecast on all parameters. Revenue grew 20% QoQ to Rs293 bn, driven by strong volume growth of 20% QoQ which included 0.36 mnT traded volumes from NMDC steel. NSR remained flat QoQ at Rs55,002/t. EBITDA stood at Rs 35bn (71.9%/0.2% QoQ/YoY), with EBITDA/tonne at Rs 6,350/t (43%/14% QoQ/YoY) which includes one-offs on account of revision of provisional rail prices amounting Rs 6.9bn. SAIL is setting up a TMT mill at Durgapur to further decrease the semi-finished product contribution and is expected to come up in 2.5 years which will further aid...

We downgrade our rating on the stock to HOLD.

Mgmt. expects production and sales volume of ~20mt and 19.3mt. SAIL delivered a strong operating performance in Q4FY25 driven by 17% YoY volume growth (aided by 0.36mt of NMDC Steel volume tie up, ex-NSL 9%) amid stable domestic demand environment. Average NSR declined 2.2% QoQ amid weak steel pricing environment during the quarter. Steel prices started improving towards the end of Q4 in the anticipation of safeguard duty. Strong 9% volume growth and lower coking coal prices has resulted in EBITDA/t of Rs5,358 adjusting for prior period rail price revision impact of Rs6.25bn. Going...

We upgrade from a HOLD to a BUY rating on the stock.

We maintain our HOLD rating.

We maintain our HOLD rating.

While Q2 benefitted from prior-period rail revenue, underlying profitability was weak and lagged peers

In 2QFY25, SAIL received a one-time revenue and EBITDA gain of INR16.4b related to rail price revisions for FY23.

We downgrade to HOLD from BUY rating.

While SAIL clocked sequential improvement in 1Q, the performance fell short of consensus and our expectations

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock