Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. share price target

Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q3FY21 (standalone) PAT is lower than our estimate. This is led by lower execution and margin. But management guides to make for revenue shortfall in Q4FY21. This will be driven by 3 projects i.e. Kandi and 2 projects in Bihar. ASBL expects revenue of Rs39-40bn in FY21, YTDFY21 revenue is at -9% YoY and which implies Q4FY21 revenue to increase by 20%. Order book as of 9MFY21 at Rs92bn equals to 4x TTM revenue. We have increased the execution run rate and lowered margin expectations. This has resulted in marginally increase in EPS by 1-4% for FY21E to FY23E. On expectation of pick in capex cycle, driven by allocation to road sector in the...

With major due diligence done and binding offers received, negotiations & documentation of SBI Macquarie stake sale expected to conclude by Mar'21. ASBL's 3Q performance was muted with revenues and margins coming below our and street estimates, mainly due to delayed commencement of 3 major projects. ASBL now received long-awaited AD in Kandi Ramsanpalle HAM...

ASBL's 3QFY21 revenue came in flat YoY, in line with our estimate. Revenue would have been higher as execution of three projects was delayed and shifted to 4QFY21. EBITDA stood 15% below our estimate as an adverse revenue mix led to 180bp YoY decline in EBITDA margin (120bp below our expectation). As a result of lower depreciation and interest cost, coupled...

ABL's order book (OB) at the end of Q3FY21 was at | 9,152 crore (OB-to-bill ratio of 2.5x TTM revenues) spread across roads - HAM (| 3,923 crore), roads - EPC (| 2,988 crore), power T&D; and others (| 1,466 crore), railways (| 692 crore), and CGD (| 83 crore) segments. During Q3FY21, the company has secured projects from a) NTPC Renewable Energy worth | 503 crore for EPC package of 150 MW solar PV project in Rajasthan and b) smaller contracts in power segment worth ~| 300 crore in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Going forward, the management has guided for order inflow of | 2,000-2,500 crore...

Negotiations restarted for SBI Macquarie stake sale with prospective buyers and deal progressing in right direction as per management. ASBL reported decent quarterly performance with execution ramping up (6% YoY growth) across its project sites led by rise in labour availability. Margins...

Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q2FY21 (standalone) PAT is higher than our estimate by 25%. Beat is led by better execution (revenue) and EBITDA margin. Revenue is up 7% YoY and business has achieved normalcy. ASBL has guided for FY21E execution (revenue) in-line with FY20. Order inflow in the H1FY21 is Rs24bn (orders received in road EPC) and company expects incremental orders of Rs30-40bn in H2FY21. Order book as of H1FY21 at Rs93bn equals to 2.4x TTM revenue. We have factored improved execution in our FY21E/22E numbers and revised EPS up by 18%/12% (exhibit 8). In the note, we introduced FY23 financials and roll forward TP to FY23E. Our revised TP is Rs111 where...

We are impressed by ABL's continued improvement in leverage at standalone levels and execution recovery. However, the SBI-Macquarie stake exit stays the key overhang on the company. We believe asset monetisation will be key for rerating of EPC business multiples. We conservatively build in construction revenue growth at 4.7% CAGR to | 4,316 crore in FY20-22E. We maintain HOLD rating on the stock with an...

Negotiations restarted for SBI Macquarie stake sale with prospective buyers and deal progressing in right direction as per management. ASBL reported decent quarterly performance with execution ramping up (6% YoY growth) across its project sites led by rise in labour availability. Margins...

Ashoka Buildcon's (ABL) performance was a mixed bag in Q1FY21. Revenues de-grew ~35% YoY to | 572.4 crore on account of weaker-thanexpected execution during the quarter owing to Covid-19 led challenges such amid lockdown and labour shortage. Reported EBITDA margin was up 180 bps YoY to 14.3%, mainly on account of release of contingencies on account of project completion. RPAT grew 11.9% YoY to | 68.1 crore on account of higher other income (driven by insurance claim and restructuring of equipment loans) and higher reported EBITDA. Order book at | 8,617 crore as of Q1FY21...

SBI Macquarie stake sale deal continues to be an overhang on the stock, negotiations to likely restart with prospective buyers. ASBL reported resilient operational performance in a tough scenario with revenues falling 34% YoY due to Covid-19 pandemic, impacting construction...