Ashoka Buildcon Ltd. share price target

Ashoka Buildcon (ASBL) Q2FY21 (standalone) PAT is higher than our estimate by 25%. Beat is led by better execution (revenue) and EBITDA margin. Revenue is up 7% YoY and business has achieved normalcy. ASBL has guided for FY21E execution (revenue) in-line with FY20. Order inflow in the H1FY21 is Rs24bn (orders received in road EPC) and company expects incremental orders of Rs30-40bn in H2FY21. Order book as of H1FY21 at Rs93bn equals to 2.4x TTM revenue. We have factored improved execution in our FY21E/22E numbers and revised EPS up by 18%/12% (exhibit 8). In the note, we introduced FY23 financials and roll forward TP to FY23E. Our revised TP is Rs111 where...

Negotiations restarted for SBI Macquarie stake sale with prospective buyers and deal progressing in right direction as per management. ASBL reported decent quarterly performance with execution ramping up (6% YoY growth) across its project sites led by rise in labour availability. Margins...

Ashoka Buildcon's (ABL) performance was a mixed bag in Q1FY21. Revenues de-grew ~35% YoY to | 572.4 crore on account of weaker-thanexpected execution during the quarter owing to Covid-19 led challenges such amid lockdown and labour shortage. Reported EBITDA margin was up 180 bps YoY to 14.3%, mainly on account of release of contingencies on account of project completion. RPAT grew 11.9% YoY to | 68.1 crore on account of higher other income (driven by insurance claim and restructuring of equipment loans) and higher reported EBITDA. Order book at | 8,617 crore as of Q1FY21...

12 August 2020 Ashoka Buildcons (ASBL) 1QFY21 results were robust. Top line decline was limited to INR5.7b (18% above est.). On account of one-off items as well as release of contingencies, EBITDA and PAT came in well above expectations. A key surprise was the reduction in gross debt to INR2.4b (v/s INR4b at end- FY20), indicating strong focus on cash flow management. Strong execution over the past two years is commendable. However, the pending PE exit in the asset portfolio is an overhang on the stock. We have increased our FY21E EPS by 16%, but FY22E EPS remains broadly unchanged. Strong order book and continuous improvement in the balance sheet augurs well for ASBL. Maintain with revised TP of INR88. Revenue declined 35% to INR5.7b and was 18% above our expectations. EBITDA was down 25% YoY to INR819m (ahead of est.

SBI Macquarie stake sale deal continues to be an overhang on the stock, negotiations to likely restart with prospective buyers. ASBL reported resilient operational performance in a tough scenario with revenues falling 34% YoY due to Covid-19 pandemic, impacting construction...

SBI-Macquarie stake exit remains the key overhang on the company. The monetisation could hit a roadblock in the near term given the overall economic challenges. Moreover, we expect ABL's execution to be impacted by Covid-19 impact. We conservatively build in construction revenue growth at 4% CAGR to | 4,248 crore in FY20-22E. We reinstate our ratings (earlier...

Post relaxations in lockdown almost all projects have commenced operations and are operating at ~60% efficiency with 50-65% labour availability. ASBL reported strong performance in 4Q with healthy execution in its key projects leading to meagre ~4% YoY (PLe: -35% YoY) fall in revenues, despite...

were moving at a steady pace until 15th Mar'20 with timely collection of come to halt due to a) directive and strict implementation of nationwide lockdown, b) stoppage of work requested by clients, c) labour related issues who were unable to return post Holi holidays and d) concerns towards health...

ABL's orderbook (OB) was at | 8,092.4 crore, implying OB-to-bill ratio of 2.0x TTM revenues, giving us comfort on execution ahead. Of this, road projects comprise | 5,981 crore, (HAM projects: | 3,411 crore, EPC projects: | 2,570 crore), power T&D; ~| 1,046 crore, Railways | 993 crore, and CGD | 73 crore. This OB does not include Tumkur-Shivamogga P-IV (TSP-IV) HAM project worth | 869.6 crore and recently won Kandi Ramsanpalle HAM project worth | 586.0 crore. The company has identified projects worth | 30,000 crore for bidding in the next two months and expects | 3,000-4,000 crore order inflow...

Hampered by the prolonged monsoons and delayed AD in HAM projects, Ashoka Buildcon's (ASBL) Q3FY20 revenue declined 8% YoY.