Radico Khaitan Ltd. share price target

Radico Khaitan Ltd (RKL) continues to focus on premiumisation and expects double-digit volume growth momentum in the Prestige & Above (P&A) category to continue.

We met Dilip Banthiya, CFO and Saket Somani, SVP - Finance & Strategy. Takeaways, Confident of reporting strong double-digit volume growth in P&A brands driven by expanding product offerings and widening distribution network.

Radico Khaitan is one of the oldest and largest manufacturers of Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) with net revenue of INR48b and volume of 31m cases in FY25 (P&A was ~15mn cases).

RKL’s Q4FY25 numbers were good, with net revenue growing by 20.9% y-o-y to Rs. 1,304 crore and OPM rising by 225 bps y-o-y to 13.6%, which led to adjusted PAT growth of 59.5% y-o-y to Rs. 91 crore.

Innovation and premiumization success demand a premium

RKL’s Q3FY25 performance was good with revenue growth of 11.5% y-o-y to Rs. 1,294 crore and OPM rising by 191 bps y-o-y to 14.2%, which led to PAT growth of 27% y-o-y to Rs. 96 crore.

We recommend a BUY on the stock with an upside of 10% from the CMP

We re-iterate a Buy on Radico Khaitan (RKL) with a revised PT of Rs. 2,996. Stock trades at 64x/51x its FY26E/FY27E earnings, respectively. P&A category to post over 15% volume growth in FY2025 driven by focus on premiumisation, while regular category is expected to deliver mid-single-digit volume growth.

Radico Khaitan Limited’s (RKL’s) Q2FY2025 numbers were strong beating estimates on all fronts, with net revenues rising by 21% y-o-y and OPM improving 152 bps y-o-y to 14.6%, leading to 33% y-o-y growth in PAT.

We retain a Buy on Radico Khaitan (RKL) with a revised PT of Rs. 2,489. Stock trades at 53x and 42x its FY2026E and FY2027E earnings, respectively.

Radico Khaitan Limited’s (RKL’s) Q1FY2025 numbers were strong in tough times, with revenues rising by 19% y-o-y; EBIDTA margins improving 58 bps y-o-y to 13.1%; EBIDTA grew by 25% y-o-y.

We remain positive on the stock and maintain our BUY recommendation Target Price & Valuation: We value the stock at | 1200 i.e. 40x P/E on FY23E EPS Key triggers for future price performance: Newer capacities would ensure enough availability of grain based ENA to address Radico higher growth...

The liquor sector is witnessing emergence of newer premium price points due to higher instances of at-home liquor consumption. Fewer avenues for customer discretionary spend resulted in higher spends towards upgradation of liquor brands (that typically exhibit higher customer...

IMFL segment comprises ~80% of consolidated revenues. The rest is contributed by IMIL and bulk alcohol P&A volumes contribute 30% to the overall IMFL volumes (rest by popular)...

IMFL segment comprises ~80% of consolidated revenues. The rest is contributed by IMIL and bulk alcohol P&A; volumes contribute 30% to the overall IMFL volumes (rest by popular)...

RKL has been continuously reducing its overall net-debt from peak of ~| 950 crore to current ~| 198 crore and generated ~| 380 crore of CFO in FY21. The management also intends to outsource its bottling of popular segment volumes, which would lower its incremental investment into increasing capacity, thus improving its return ratios. Radico continues to widen its volume growth performance over other industry players while its increased brand presence in higher categories is helping it to instil longevity into Radico's premiumisation journey. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock...