Radico Khaitan Ltd. share price target

Volume growth of the premium category continues to be robust: up 19% yoy/7% qoq. The company further reduced debt by Rs768mn in Q3. We expect RDCK to become debt-free in FY20 due to its solid FCF generation. The stock is available at a PER of 23.8x/20.1x FY21/21E EPS which is cheap for a consumer name. Our Buy recommendation is underpinned by an FCF yield of 5%,...

next six months. The company expects molasses prices to be in line with last year. RDCK will incur Rs700mn in capex in the next two years to support premium brands' growth. The company is in the process of: 1) converting one of its molasses distilling plants to a grain spirit-based one; and, 2) tripling its malt spirit capacity to 1.5mn liters. The production of new products Verve Vodka, 8PM Black Whiskey, and Morpheus Blue Brandy is in full swing. Management expects three product launches in the next two years. Our forecasts and TP are unchanged, based on a target 31x FY20E PER, reflecting strong earnings growth. Strong 3Q results with expected 46% yoy growth in earnings should be...

with our estimates, driven by 11.5% yoy growth in IMFL volume which was at 5.2 mn cases. Volume in Prestige and above segment grew at 14.6% yoy while Regular segment grew at 10.3% yoy. Volume growth slowed on qoq due to...

Reiterate BUY with revised TP of Rs 548 Radico Khaitan (RDCK) reported healthy numbers for fourth consecutive quarter. In 2QFY19, revenues/ EBITDA/PAT grew by 15.5/39.5/76.3% YoY. Even in trailing 12m, RDCKs revenue/EBITDA and PAT grew at an accelerated pace of 20/44/85%. We expect the growth rate to taper from 3QFY19 as the base effect kicks-in yet it should remain healthy.

Radico Khaitan Ltd (RDCK) is the third largest volume player in IMFL segment in Indian market with annual sales of more than 20 million cases. Having entered in branded IMFL segment in late 90s, RDCK has established a wide range of products across different price levels and expanded its presence in the market. RDCK owns six pillar brands, named 8PM, Magic Moments, Old Admiral, Morpheus, Contessa and After Dark, which have significant market presence and enjoys considerable market share in the industry. RDCK has three distilleries in Rampur, UP and holds 36% interest in a JV in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. It owns 5 bottling units and...

EBITDA margins in the quarter improved by 259 bps yoy to 17.7% led by premiumization, better realization due to price hike in certain states on yoy and lower raw material cost. The company expects improvement in EBITDA...

Reiterate BUY with TP of Rs 484 (32x Jun-20E EPS) vs. 40x for United Spirits (UNSP). Radico Khaitan (RDCK) reported healthy 1QFY19. Revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew by 26%/47%/87% YoY. IMFL volume growth of 19% YoY (30% in premium segment) is the key highlight. RDCK's presence in faster growing niche segment of Vodka and Super Premium brandy, abolition of monopolistic distribution in UP and low base effect owing to highway ban in 1QFY18 led to outstanding growth.

Reiterate SELL on United Spirits (UNSP) and initiate coverage on Radico Khaitan (RDCK) with a BUY, driven by more visible improvement in business trajectory and relatively affordable valuations. Indias liquor industry looks attractive on a top down basis, presenting a strong case for long term investors. High barriers to entry, inelastic demand (?), increasing social acceptance and premiumisation provide most of the rationale for this view. A closer look, however, reveals structural pain that dampens both volume and value growth. The industry remains at the mercy of a quagmire of state-specific regulations, ever increasing taxes, price control, distribution model changes and political interference.

RDCK is delivering on all fronts: sales volume growth, margin expansion, earnings growth and debt reduction. We forecast yoy EPS growth of 32% for FY19, 27% for FY20 and 25% for FY21. The earnings growth would lead to solid cash flow generation and ROCE...

Radico Khaitan Ltd (RKL) is expected to be a major beneficiary of decline in molasses prices. Molasses comprises of over 20% of its raw material cost and ~8% of its net sales. As per news reports, molasses prices have declined by upto 90% in the past 3-4 months. As per management, the prices may remain lower than its historical average in coming quarters. We have assumed 150-200 bps improvement in EBITDA margins assuming average prices to be at 25-35% lower i.e. ~Rs 250-300 per quintal for next 1-2 years Vs current ~Rs 40 per quintal. Further, price hike received in...