PVR INOX Ltd. share price target

PVRL's Q1FY20 result (Adj. for AS-116 impact) was in-line with our forecast with a slight beat on consolidated EBITDA margin front, which was driven by the beat in the Movie distribution segment. Standalone exhibition revenue grew by 10.6% YoY and Adj. EBITDA margin declined by 215bps to 17.1%, in-line with our forecast. PVRL has added 36 screens YTD and has maintained its FY20 target of addition of 80+ screens (100+ currently under fit-outs) despite the slowdown in real estate market in general. PVRL expects Q2/Q3FY20 to be better than Q1 given the healthy movie slate. We largely maintain our FY20/21 forecast. We also maintain ACCUMULATE with TP of...

PVR's Q1FY20 topline beat was aided by better-than-expected growth in F&B; and advertisement. F&B; revenues at | 260.4 crore, up 28.4% YoY, were higher than expected 15% growth led by SPH growth of 17% YoY. Advertisement revenues grew 28% YoY, better than our expectation of 25% YoY. EBITDA (without impact of Ind-AS116) came in at | 158.7 crore, with margins of 18%, largely in line with our estimates. On a reported basis, EBITDA was at | 279 crore. Margins of 31.6% as rent are now charged under depreciation and interest under Ind-AS 116. PAT (without impact of IndAs116) came in at | 44 crore, a tad better than our expectation of | 39.9...

69% YoY, unlike peers which faced limited impact, as the company has longer 15-year leases with higher liability and interest charge. Concall highlights: (1) Net debt stood at INR13b. Capex guidance at INR5b for FY20 with 80+ screen adds. Currently, 100+ screens are in fit-out stage; expects to reach 1,000 screens over the next two years. (2) PVR expects to...

Q4FY19 revenue grew at a rate of ~28% on a YoY basis owing to higher box office and F&B; collections while Average Ticket Prices (ATP) witnessed a growth of 3.8% YoY . Food & Beverages spend per head de-grew by ~2% YoY while Ad...

PVR's reported a strong Q4FY19, in-line with our forecast. While, SPI Cinemas' performance was a slight miss, it was more than offset by the standalone exhibition business. Consolidated revenue/EBITDA grew by 43%/70% YoY in Q4FY19 and EBITDA margin improved by a strong ~300bps YoY to 19.2%. In FY19, PVR added 66 screens on standalone basis and 4 screens in case of SPI Cinemas. For FY20, it targets to add 80+ screens on standalone basis (13 added YTD) and 10-12 screens in case of SPI Cinemas. Our forecast is conservative and factors addition of 70 screens on standalone basis and 8 screens for SPI Cinemas....

PVR's Q4FY19 performance was strong on account of healthy box office collections as well as strong growth from F&B; as well as advertisement revenues. Net box office collections came in at | 451.3 crore, with footfalls at 27.5 mn. F&B; revenues came in at | 231.9 crore. Ad revenues grew 22.4% YoY to | 88.1 crore. EBITDA came in at | 160.8 crore, better than our expectations on account of superior advertisement as well as F&B; performance. PAT came in at | 46.4 crore, largely in line with expectations...

GST rate cut: A positive impetus for growth... GST rate cut expected to stimulate consumption... Effective 1st January, the government has reduced the GST rate on movie tickets above INR 100 from 28% to 18% and for movie tickets price below INR 100 from 18% to 12%. This is a significant step which will make the movie watching experience more affordable and drive consumption. Management has guided for a gradual recovery in both ATP and F&B; growth rates going forward. So far PVR has added 55 new screens in FY19 and we expect them to add 10-15 more screens...

In Q3FY19, reported revenue was at | 843.1 crore, better than expectation of | 765.3 crore. The beat was on account of strong ATP (computed) that came in at ~| 212 (vs. our estimate of | 206) and reported footfalls that were at 25.7 mn vs. our estimate of 23.6 mn. Reported ad revenues grew 28.9% vs. our estimate of 25% YoY Reported EBITDA came in higher at | 164.3 crore, higher than our estimate of | 149.5 crore, given the topline beat. Reported margins came in at 19.5%, in line with our estimates...

25 January 2019 3Q was the first quarter with full three months impact of SPI Cinemas consolidation. revenue was up 51% YoY to INR 8.4b (6% beat). EBITDA surged 62% YoY to INR1.6b (11% beat), with the margin expanding 130bp YoY to 19.5%. PAT grew 79% YoY to INR518m (29% beat). However, excluding SPI Cinemas, revenue was up 27% YoY to INR6,949m, driven by strong growth across segments, while EBITDA/PAT grew 40%/62% YoY. Excluding SPI Cinemas, PVR added 33 screens, reaching a total of 676 screens. Subsequently, admits were up 23% YoY to 21.3m. This, coupled with a 3% YoY uptick in ATP to INR220, drove a 26% YoY jump in ticketing revenue. F&B; revenue grew at a healthy 24% YoY, led by the uptick in admits, partly offset by a 3% YoY drop in SPH (INR90). Ad revenue rose 16% YoY to INR1b, while convenience fees grew 1.

We value PVR at 34x FY20E EPS and change the rating to Hold from Buy with a revised TP of Rs1,389. Screen additions and SPI integration to drive growth... Revenue growth aided by higher footfalls and occupancy rates Q2FY19 revenue grew at ~ 28%YoY mainly attributed to higher footfalls (14% growth) and occupancy rates (380bps up) on a YoY basis. Net ticket revenue and F&B; collections registered a growth of 17% and 25% respectively, while advertisement revenue grew by 13% YoY. Management has guided for a gradual recovery in sph in the coming quarters....