Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. share price target

one of the largest real estate developers in India. PEPL has delivered 247 world-class projects spanning 134 mn sqft, predominantly in South India and is now expanding to other geographical regions. Currently PEPL...

PEPL is going all out (1) On building lease assets & (2) Increasing Non-South exposure with JV/JD tie ups. It's banking on the consolidation theme and picking up distressed projects in non-south markets. Large capex outlays on new lease assets will be cash flow dilutive over next 3-4yrs and requires timely funding from existing lease assets monetization and deployment of capital in cash flow dilutive under construction projects. Office assets under construction/upcoming launches of 15/25mn sqft are aggressive with overall office portfolio expected to increase from 10mn sqft to 50mn sqft over next 5-6yrs. We retain NEU with increased (new leases addition) TP of Rs 358/sh. We maintain NEU on PEPL with SOTP of Rs 358/sh (vs. Rs 348/sh earlier). We have increased our FY20/21E EPS estimates by 35%/18.9% to factor in better than expected deliveries in residential projects. PEPL posted strong 3QFY20 results.

Despite an encouraging quarter on collections, PEPL has seen further debt built up (due to asset portfolio stake consolidation), posing a challenge for the management in achieving optimal leverage. Further pending capex includes Rs 13bn/4-5bn for Office and Retail/ Hospitality respectively. One of the few positives is that ~60% of debt is backed either by annuity or by rental securitization/ bill discounting. Launches were largely tilted towards commercial projects. Asset stake sale is key for further re-rating. Retain NEU with Rs 286/sh TP. We maintain NEU on Prestige Estate (PEPL) owing to muted presales, increasing debt and limited visibility on asset monetization. Our SOTP based TP is Rs 286/sh. We remain constructive on leasing business and cap rate compression in declining interest rate scenario will cap valuation downside.

Despite strong pre- sales, Prestige has seen debt building up. Further pending capex includes Rs 15/3bn for Office and Retail/ Hospitality respectively. With ~Rs 7.5-10bn outlay expected over the next 12-15 months on JDAs/ JVs, we remain concerned. The only solace is ~56% of debt is backed either by annuity or by rental securitization/ bill discounting. The stock has run up 39% over the past 3 months. Maintain NEU with TP of Rs 286/sh. Key risks (1) Further increase in debt, (2) Delays in asset monetization, (3) High unsold inventory We maintain NEU owing to rich valuations. Our SOTP based TP stands reduced to Rs 286/sh (vs Rs 292 earlier). We have reduced FY20/21E EPS by 27/17% to factor in higher depreciation on asset capex and higher financing costs.

Monetisation of completed inventory of ~Rs 28bn remains key. We maintain BUY with Rs 292/sh TP. 3QFY19 Revenue came in at Rs 10.8bn, Rs 1bn lower due to IND AS 115. Margins came in at 31.9% (vs 20.0/27.7% YoY/QoQ). PEPL had deliveries of 7mn sqft in 3QFY19 alone (record deliveries of ~24mn sqft in 9MFY19, 141% ahead of full year guidance) leading to total unrecognized revenue of ~130bn, incl. ~Rs 75bn of earlier reversals (re-recognition over 2.5-3 years).

We maintain BUY with Rs 309/sh TP PEPL reported 2QFY19 revenue of Rs 13.2bn, 49% ahead of estimates. APAT came in at Rs 968mn (234% ahead of estimates). Impact of IND AS 115: higher revenue by Rs ~1.3bn and higher net profit by Rs 543mn. PEPL delivered 12.1mn sqft in 2QFY19 alone (~17.1mn sqft in 1HFY19, which is 71% ahead of guidance and this has resulted in strong revenue recognition).

Due to the recent price correction, we upgrade PEPL from NEU to BUY with a NAV-based TP of Rs 316/sh. 1QFY19 Revenue came in at Rs 8.6bn. The prior quarters are not comparable due to 1st time adoption of IND AS 115. Impact (1QFY19): Lower revenue by Rs 1.7bn and higher net profit by Rs 23mn). Even as 1mn sqft was launched in 1QFY19 in Chennai and Bangalore, PEPLs share of pre-sales decreased QoQ to 1.1mn sqft (vs 1.6mn sqft QoQ).

Robust pre-sales; debt rises on stake buyback Prestige Estates (PEPL) reported robust operations as company benefitted from projects launched in 4QFY18. Pre-sales volume was at 1.11msf and sales value at INR 7.6bn (+69% YoY) during the quarter. Completed inventory declined by 0.67msf during the quarter (60% of sales). Collection from residential segment was reported at INR 7.5bn (vs. INR 8.0bn quarterly average). PEPL has shifted to completion method of accounting under Ind AS 115. Net debt increased by INR 8.2bn to INR 72.8bn primarily on CapitaLand stake acquisition (INR 3.4bn) and consolidation of INR 2.8bn debt related to the acquisition. While the increase in...

Q3FY18 reported revenue grew by 3% YoY, while PAT grew by 34% due to higher realisation. Given Bangalores better affordability compared to peers (Mumbai/NCR), we continue to maintain a positive view on Bangalore-based developer PEPL....

We maintain NEU with a NAV-based TP of Rs 316/sh. Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (PEPL) delivered inline 3QFY18 performance with revenues/EBIDTA/PAT coming in 8.1/1.7/4.2% ahead of our estimate. Despite no new project launch, PEPL reported gross pre-sales of 1.0mn sq ft/Rs 6.7bn in value (realisation of Rs 6,869/sq ft). Gross Volume/value declined 15.5/16.4% QoQ respectively.

We maintain NEU with a NAV-based TP of Rs 281/sh. Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (PEPL) delivered 2QFY18 net profit beat of 13.3%. This was on account of lower minority share, depreciation and taxes. Despite no new launches, PEPL reported robust gross pre-sales of 1.16mn sq ft/Rs 8bn in value (realisation of Rs 6,934/sq ft). Volume/value improved 26.1/35% QoQ respectively.

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (PEPL) delivered 4QFY17 Net Profit beat of 73.3%. This was on account of robust completions and higher POCM. The impact of demonetization seems to be waning with PEPL reporting robust pre-sales of 0.73mn sqft with ~Rs5.2bn in value (realization of Rs7,190/sqft). The volume/value improved 32.7 /51.5% QoQ.

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. (PEPL) delivered 2QFY17 Revenue, EBIDTA & Net Profit, 10.6/6.2/15.6% ahead of our estimate. Prestige Falcon City (26.6% of revenue) and Lakeside Habitat (10.2% of revenue) were key revenue drivers. The impact of demonetization would reflect in 2HFY17E. Accordingly, we have re-calibrated our pre-sales and FY17-18E EPS estimate 19-31% lower.

we continue to like Prestige Estates Projects Ltd (PEPL) due to its strong annuity income stream (exit rental of Rs 5.4 bn). Further, PEPL's operations are concentrated in Bangalore, which we believe will recover faster driven by strong commercial absorption (12-13 msf p.a.), resulting in steady r..

Weak P&L: 1QFY17 Consolidated P&L weakened sequentially with revenue at INR9.5b (v/s INR9.6b QoQ), EBITDA at INR1.7b (OPM of 18.1%) v/s INR2.5b (OPM of 26.4%) in 4Q and PAT at INR478m (v/s INR723m). Gearing marginally went down by INR1b QoQ to INR55.8b (net DER of 1.13x). Subnormal presales: Quarterly pre-sales remained subdued at 0.8msf (INR 5.1b) v/s 1.5msf (INR9.9b) in 4Q. Collections up 16%QoQ in 1Q. Leasing and rental runrate was down 1Q, at 0.04msf and INR1.312b respectively. Moderate growth outlook: FY17 guidance comprises 15-25% growth in pre- sales, 10% in collections, 30%-35% in rentals on the back of new completions, and gearing at elevated level of 1-1.25x as capes cycle would continue.

PEPL remains preferred play on Bangalore real estate, which albeit lost momentum, still offers better dynamics. But PEPL’s massive slippage over FY16 (contrary to track record) highlights the magnitude of prevailing weakness in market. Post sharp corrections, stock valuations factor in the concerns of deterioration in capital structure and weakness in operations. At 1.7x/1.6x FY17/18E BV and at an EV of 10x FY18E EBITDA stock offers valuation comfort. Operational normalcy remains near-term trigger. We maintain Buy with target price of INR225.

TTKPT broadly operates under 3 major segments - Pressure Cooker & Pans, Non-stick Cookware and Kitchen Electric Appliances. TTKPT enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~7.2% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. TTKPT has a market share of ~60% in the outer-lid pressure cooker, ~15% in inner-lid pressure cooker within the organised market and in Induction cook-top space they enjoy a market share of about ~25%. 80% of sales are from products introduced in the last 3 years. TTKPT has network of 30,000 dealers in India. They...

Despite consistent positive news flow on commercial leasing demand, steady pre-sales and successful new launches, Prestige Estates’ (PEPL) share price underperformed Sensex by 28% on 12M relative basis. Going into FY17-18E, we expect further upsides to be triggered by (1) Robust new launches of 12mn sqft, (2) Annuity portfolio nearing maturity by FY17- 18E, and (3) Likely balance sheet deleveraging. HDFC Securities resume coverage with a BUY and SOTP-based TP of Rs 264/sh. Correction presents attractive entry point.

Trendlyne has 2 reports on PRESTIGE updated in the last year from 2 brokers with an average target of Rs 244.5.

Better revenue run-rate amidst OPM dip: 4QFY16 consolidated P&L; strengthened sequentially, with revenue at INR11.1b v/s INR9.8b in 3Q, EBITDA at INR2.2b (OPM of 19.9%) v/s INR2.3b (OPM of 22.5%) in 3Q, and PAT at...

TTKPT broadly operates under 3 major segments - Pressure Cooker & Pans, Non-stick cookware and kitchen electric appliances. TTKPT enjoys high brand recall and they spend ~7.2% of their annual sales for brand building and promotional activity, which enables them to dominate most of the segments in which they operate. In the pressure cooker segment, TTKPT has a market share of ~40% within the organised market and in Induction cook-top space they enjoy a market share of about ~25%. 80% of sales are from products introduced in the last 3 years. TTKPT has network of 30,000 dealers in India. They compete with...