Aavas Financiers Ltd. share price target

Aavas reported decline in disbursements post change in recognition process; disbursements de-grew by 5% YoY. Thus, AUM growth slowed down to 16% YoY vs 18% YoY (Q4FY25). Management revised guidance downwards to 18-20% vs 20-25% AUM growth for FY26. Asset quality deteriorated with GNPA at 1.22% vs 1.08% QoQ; further reported rise in 1+ dpd to 4.15% vs 3.39% led by seasonality. Spreads improved by 22bps QoQ to 5.11% due to decline in cost of funds. NII grew by 14% YoY led by improvement in NIMs; PPoP grew by 12% YoY led by higher operating expenses (up 21% YoY). PAT grew by 10% YoY led by higher...

AAVAS saw a weak quarter as disbursal growth fell by 43% QoQ (usually Q1 sees a 25-30% QoQ dip) and overall stress increased. Disbursals were ~17% lower to PLe since the company transitioned to a realization-based model for disbursal recognition to adopt a more conservative approach, also aligning with regulatory expectations. Credit flow for Jul'25 has normalized to Rs5.56.0bn vs avg. Rs3.8bn in Q1'26. While AAVAS has guided for an AuM growth for FY26E of 18-20%, we have factored an AuM CAGR of 17% due to the Q1'26...

to opex drag since 24 branches and 939 employees were added in Q4FY25. AuM is guided to grow by 20% in FY26 (vs +18% in FY25). We are factoring an 18% CAGR in AuM over FY25-27E owing to likely increase in competition due to falling interest rates and a higher base. Company expects NIM to improve in FY26 (FY25 5.94%) led by lower competition from banks/HFCs and (2) focus on...

Aavas Financiers (Aavas) reported in-line Q4FY25 financial performance, evident in strong 6% QoQ AUM growth, steady 15bps credit cost, 46bps QoQ dip in 1+ DPD to 3.39% and RoA at 3.3%.

AAVAS Financiers (AAVAS)’s 4QFY25 PAT grew ~8% YOY to ~INR1.54b (in line). FY25 PAT grew ~17% YoY to INR5.7b. NII in 4QFY25 grew 14% YoY to ~INR2.7b (in line).

AAVAS Financiers (AAVAS)’s 2QFY25 PAT grew 22% YoY to ~INR1.48b (in line). 1HFY25 PAT grew 18% YoY to ~INR2.74b.

AAVAS Financiers (AAVAS)’s 1QFY25 PAT grew 15% YoY to ~INR1.26b (6% miss) and NII grew 8% YoY to ~INR2.45b (in line).

Aavas Financier’s (Aavas) Q1FY25 performance was partially impacted by seasonality and revised regulatory norms (dated Apr 29, ’24), as reflected in sharp a 36% QoQ fall in disbursements to INR 12.1bn.

Strong 22% YoY AUM growth in FY24 with an all-time low 1+ DPD portfolio at 3.1%, as on March’24, despite higher attrition owing to top-management change in May’23 and adverse impact on business volume due to tech upgradation, summarises superior execution of business strategies by new management

AAVAS Financiers (AAVAS)’s 4QFY24 PAT grew 13% YoY to ~INR1.43b (10%
beat) and NII rose 7% YoY to ~INR2.4b (in line). FY24 PAT was up ~14% YoY
at ~INR4.9b.

The top management of Aavas Financiers (Aavas) changed in May’23, yet, its H1FY24 and Q2FY24 financial performances have been encouraging and reinforce our view that the new management team would be able to maintain its industry-leading position in AHFC space and deliver 2.5-3% RoA and 15-20% RoE on a steady basis. Notably, disbursements grew 18% QoQ after falling >30% QoQ in Q1FY24 owing to seasonality (Q1 generally being a weak quarter) and IT transformation.