Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

EBITDA increased 28.8% YoY to Rs. 667cr. EBITDA margin expanded 340bps YoY to 59.8%, driven by strong growth in revenue. Phoenix Mills delivered a strong performance in Q2FY26, driven by resilient retail consumption, improving occupancy across office assets and strong traction in *over or under performance to benchmark index residential sales. A strategic focus on experiential retail through concepts such as Gourmet Village, along with expansions into new geographies, is expected to further enhance footfalls and brand visibility. The office portfolio is witnessing robust...

About the stock: Phoenix Mills (PML) is a leading retail mall developer and operator in India. It is into retail-led, mixed-use properties. PML has an operational retail area of ~11.5 msf, spread across 12...

PHNX reported revenue of INR11.2b, +22% YoY/+17% QoQ (in line with estimates), while EBITDA came in at INR6.7b, up 29% YoY/18% QoQ (6% above estimate).

During FY15-25, PHNX’s retail portfolio witnessed an 11% CAGR in consumption, supported by ~7% like-for-like growth in the existing malls and the opening of new malls in Lucknow, Indore, Ahmedabad, Pune, and Bengaluru.

Phoenix Mills (PHNX) reported 1QFY26 revenue of INR9.5b, up 5% YoY/down 6% QoQ (15% below estimate), while EBITDA came in at INR5.6b, up 6% YoY/1% QoQ (19% below estimate).

Phoenix Mills displayed negative growth in Q4FY25, but its core segments continued to perform well. The company has an ambitious expansion and densification strategy, supported by strong cash flows and a disciplined balance sheet. A strong pipeline of upcoming retail and mixed-use developments across key urban centres is expected to drive robust growth, providing clear visibility on future revenue. This reinforces Phoenix Mills' position as a leading player poised to benefit...

The company reported revenue of INR10.2b, -22%/+4% YoY/QoQ (16% below estimate), while EBITDA came in at INR5.6b, -11%/+1% YoY/QoQ (27% below estimate).

Phoenix Mills (PHNX) posted 2QFY25 revenue of INR9.2b, up 5% YoY (in line). EBITDA stood at INR5.2b, up 2% YoY (6% below est.) as margin contracted143bp YoY.

During the 10-year period from FY14 to FY24, PHNX’s retail portfolio
reported a 12% CAGR in consumption, aided by ~8% like-for-like growth in
existing malls and the launch of new malls in Lucknow, Indore, and
Ahmedabad. Moreover, the company’s retail rental income also witnessed
12% CAGR over the same period, aligning closely with the growth in
consumption.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) has clocked a CAGR of 14% in consumption and 13% in retail rental across its mall portfolio over the last decade (FY13-23). Further, LTL consumption base for FY23 across the company’s operational malls was 19% higher than FY20 levels. With the company’s Wakad, Pune having opened in Sep’23 and Hebbal, Bengaluru also expected to open shortly and Indore/Ahmedabad malls having opened in FY23, the focus now shifts to growth from new assets.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q1FY24 (Apr-Jun’23) like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 109% of Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22) levels. Adjusted for store closures in Lifestyle Block of Palladium, Mumbai LTL consumption would have stood at 110% of Q1FY23 levels. As per company, while consumption growth in Jul’23 slowed to 6% owing to monsoon impact in Mumbai, with an expected ramp up in traded occupancies by 3-5% by Q3FY24, LTL growth should trend higher in the festive season and possibly enable the company to achieve double digit LTL consumption growth.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q1FY24 (Apr-Jun’23) like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 109% of Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22) levels. Adjusted for store closures in Lifestyle Block of Palladium, Mumbai LTL consumption would have stood at 110% of Q1FY23 levels.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked FY23 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 119% of FY20 levels while retail income growth was at 122% of FY20 levels.