Phoenix Mills Ltd. share price target

The company reported revenue of INR10.2b, -22%/+4% YoY/QoQ (16% below estimate), while EBITDA came in at INR5.6b, -11%/+1% YoY/QoQ (27% below estimate).

Phoenix Mills (PHNX) posted 2QFY25 revenue of INR9.2b, up 5% YoY (in line). EBITDA stood at INR5.2b, up 2% YoY (6% below est.) as margin contracted143bp YoY.

During the 10-year period from FY14 to FY24, PHNX’s retail portfolio
reported a 12% CAGR in consumption, aided by ~8% like-for-like growth in
existing malls and the launch of new malls in Lucknow, Indore, and
Ahmedabad. Moreover, the company’s retail rental income also witnessed
12% CAGR over the same period, aligning closely with the growth in
consumption.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) has clocked a CAGR of 14% in consumption and 13% in retail rental across its mall portfolio over the last decade (FY13-23). Further, LTL consumption base for FY23 across the company’s operational malls was 19% higher than FY20 levels. With the company’s Wakad, Pune having opened in Sep’23 and Hebbal, Bengaluru also expected to open shortly and Indore/Ahmedabad malls having opened in FY23, the focus now shifts to growth from new assets.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q1FY24 (Apr-Jun’23) like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 109% of Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22) levels. Adjusted for store closures in Lifestyle Block of Palladium, Mumbai LTL consumption would have stood at 110% of Q1FY23 levels. As per company, while consumption growth in Jul’23 slowed to 6% owing to monsoon impact in Mumbai, with an expected ramp up in traded occupancies by 3-5% by Q3FY24, LTL growth should trend higher in the festive season and possibly enable the company to achieve double digit LTL consumption growth.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q1FY24 (Apr-Jun’23) like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 109% of Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22) levels. Adjusted for store closures in Lifestyle Block of Palladium, Mumbai LTL consumption would have stood at 110% of Q1FY23 levels.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked FY23 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 119% of FY20 levels while retail income growth was at 122% of FY20 levels.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Mar’23 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at 111% of Mar’19 levels (Mar’20 was first Covid impacted month hence not comparable). However, Mar’23 LTL consumption was at 106% of Mar’22 levels. As we have been highlighting, while the FY23 LTL consumption was expected to range between 13-14% of FY20 (pre-Covid) levels adjusted for Mar’20 mall closures, with a high base of FY23, we model for 5% LTL consumption/rental CAGR from FY24E.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) clocked Q3FY23 LTL consumption of Rs23.6bn which stood at 114% of Q3FY20 levels. As per the company, while there were some concerns of a possible demand slowdown in Dec’22, Jan’23 LTL consumption numbers remain strong at 109% of Jan’20 levels.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) saw Dec’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs8.2bn or 108% of Dec’19 levels. While the Dec’22 LTL growth is lower than the 15% LTL growth seen between Apr-Nov’22, we believe that a high base in Dec’19 (Black Friday sale was in Dec’19 vs. Nov’22 in FY23) has had a marginal impact.

The Phoenix Mills (PHNX) has announced the completion of the Surat mall land acquisition for Rs5.1bn in partnership with Ahmedabad based Bsafal Group.