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Varun Beverages (VBL) reported 23.3% revenue growth in Q1CY20E led by 26.2% volume growth. The volume growth is largely attributable to consolidation of south & west geographies after acquisition in 2019. However, on a like-to-like basis, the company saw 9.3% volume decline in the quarter. India business saw 13.7% volume decline largely due to loss of sales in last 10 days of March. Despite January-February seeing double digit volume growth, 31% decline in March severely impacted the quarter. Gross margins improved 280 bps largely due to a sharp decline in PET chip prices....
With a long run-way of growth, improving regulatory environment, and strong innovation opportunities, we remain positive on the general insurance sector. Regulatory crack-down on motor TP pricing is key risk. Pvt. multi-line insurers Mar-20/FY20 GDPI grew -16.2/+11.7% YoY to Rs 67.1/911.8bn. Decline in Mar-20 was along expected lines as new policy sales have declined as a result of the lockdown and renewals have been impacted by the forbearance (until 15-May-20) given by IRDAI on premium payments, and extra time (until June-20) allowed for claiming deduction under the IT Act, for the purchase of health cover.
Mindtree reported revenue growth of 1.9% in c/c and 1.2% in reported terms, in line with our expectations. Growth was driven by the top account which grew 8.6% sequentially. Ex-top account revenues would have declined 1.1% QoQ. Its top client added US$5.5 mn to incremental revenues offsetting US$2.3 mn decline in the rest of the firm. EBIT margin was in line with our estimates of 12.5%. Active clients have shown a decline to 307 from 320 in Q3FY20 & 343 in Q2FY20, this highlights rationalization of tail accounts. We give credit to the new management on margin expansion, but we find...
Recommendations and stock picks: Outlook on ordering both domestic/international ex roads is likely to be weak. Banks lending will be selective. We have downgraded ABB from ADD to SELL and Siemens from ADD to REDUCE. We have cut PSP/ITD rating from BUY to ADD. We maintain BUY ratings on other coverage stocks. For our coverage universe, we have recalibrated the P/E multiple/EPS estimates lower resulting in TP cuts by 10-60%. In cap goods, LT is our top pick. In the mid cap EPC space, KNR, PNC, HG Infra and Ahluwalia are our top picks. COVID-19 poses multiple headwinds: Industrials companies have been hit hard by COVID-19 pandemic. Execution has started to pick up slowly post almost a month of lockdown. Local Govt approvals are coming slowly as the sector grapples for remobilization of sites. Urban areas are being turned into containment fortresses and it will take time for the works to resume. This will largely impact Metro and Real Estate projects execution. National Highway projects are still executable as they run through interior State districts with limited COVID-19 impact. We believe pure play NH EPC players are best placed to tide through the crisis. Buildings players are worst impacted.