Sector Updates

In February 2025, the mutual fund industry's net AUM declined from INR 67.25 Tn to INR 64.53 Tn, despite reporting net inflows of INR 400.6 Bn during the month. The contraction was primarily due to valuation losses in equity-oriented funds, which offset the positive impact of inflows.

The demand environment in Q3FY25 reflected early signs of stabilization, with slightly improved Total Contract Value (TCV) momentum, supported by small and mid-sized deal conversions. However, large deal closures remained muted, indicating that enterprises continue to maintain a cautious stance, particularly for discretionary-led digital transformation initiatives.

Consumption trends in Q4FY25E remained mixed, with staple companies expected to report marginal volume growth. Inflationary pressures on discretionary spending weighed on major FMCG players such as HUL, Nestlé India, Britannia, and Tata Consumer Products.

As per AIOCD and AWACS data, in January 2025, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 8.7% YoY, led by price hikes (+5.3%) and new launches (+2.6%), but posted muted volume growth (+0.9%). In February 2025, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.5% YoY, driven by price hikes (+5.2%) and new launches (+2.7%), while volume declined marginally (-0.2%).

We anticipate industry credit growth to moderate to ~11.0% by end of FY25E, marking a sharp decline from 20.2% in FY24. This slowdown is largely attributed to a deceleration in unsecured loan expansion and persistent stress in the Microfinance (MFI) segment, which has prompted a more cautious lending approach across the sector.

YoY organic growth is expected to decelerate from ~4.5% in 2QFY25 to 0.5% in 4Q. Implies a US$2.6bn annualized organic revenue loss

Cement prices exhibited early signs of stabilization, following a subdued pricing environment through October and November 2024, driven by weak demand dynamics. However, a turnaround materialized in December, supported by rural housing expansion, and infrastructure-driven demand,
leading to a moderate recovery in prices.

In February, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.6%, while Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation ticked up to 2.4%. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased compared to the previous month, while Services PMI witnessed a surge.

The unemployment rate rose in February. Foreign institutional investments (FII) and and mutual funds (MF) witnessed outflows during the month. Crude oil prices declined on a MoM basis in February.