EPC companies, due to general elections held in Q1FY25, 2) recent geopolitical incidents leading to better performance out of defence companies, 3) strong domestic traction for product companies, and 4) strong YoY growth seen in the public capex for railways, defence, power, road transport and highways etc. in Q1FY26. The strong performance is anticipated despite cautious exports and tariff related uncertainties along with continued weakness in the consumable companies. Overall, we expect revenue/EBITDA growth of ~15.1%/15.5% YoY (~15.3%/14.9% YoY ex-L&T). Execution pace, domestic capex momentum and...
terror attack. However, the sector's pricing power remained resilient, with panIndia ARRs holding firm in the Rs7,3007,500 range, reflecting inherent pricing power. The aviation sector also witnessed a notable slowdown in traffic growth, with May-25 recording just 1.9% YoY pax growth, lowest in recent quarters, reaching 14.1mn passengers. As for the luggage sector, while it was relatively less affected by geopolitical developments, the overall environment remained challenging and competitive intensity continues to persist. Within our hospitality coverage universe, we expect RevPAR growth of 2%/16%/15% for CHALET IN, LEMONTRE IN and SAMHI IN respectively. As for INDIGO IN, we...
QoQ/10.0% YoY. Disbursal run-rate of LICHF/CANF is a key monitorable, given weak credit flow in the last few quarters. NIM for coverage HFCs could fall by 3bps QoQ to 3.13%. NII may remain flat QoQ and grow by 9.0% YoY to Rs27.8bn due to faster repricing of loans. Other income could reduce by 44.3% QoQ to Rs1.6bn owing to seasonality which would be partly offset by 20.2% moderation in opex to Rs5.56bn mainly led by fall in other opex (-28.2% QoQ). Hence, PPoP could be flat QoQ at Rs23.9bn. We see provisions inching up QoQ to 19bps from 15bps as Q1 sees slower...
service EBITDA margin of PTL division is likely to be at 10% (mirroring the performance of 4QFY25) versus 3.2% in 1QFY25. Even MAHLOG IN's operational performance is likely to be healthy led by EBITDA growth of 12.2% in standalone business and narrowing losses in the B2B express division....
Deo, Instant Noodles, Juices, oral care and mass skin care remains intense. seasonally important quarter partly disrupted by unseasonal rains and operation Sindoor. Food and grocery retail continue to remain highly...
12.0% due to higher A&P spends (new logo was unveiled in June-25). Entertainment: While headwinds in Kiddopia and Nodwin businesses persist, consolidation of Curve Games, Freaks 4U and Fusebox is likely to support the...
Bharti Airtel: For Q1FY26, we expect ARPU to come in at Rs 248 (up 1.2% QoQ) along with net subscriber addition of ~3mn. Airtel Africa business is expected to grow at 6% QoQ, and we have factored in a 4% QoQ growth rate for the enterprise...
started to taper off (highlighted in Q4FY25), and we expect the trend to continue in Q1FY26. Our outlook remains positive backed by improving margin better as they have multiple levers to deliver growth. BAF has reported steady AUM growth of 25% YoY- stable NIM and improving credit cost outlook will be...
Good quarter owing to healthy equity growth Equity QAAuM for the industry is likely to see healthy growth of 7-8% QoQ/2122% YoY in Q1FY26 due to higher MTM gains as equity market bounced back in May'25 & Jun'25. Over Mar'25 to May'25 closing eq+bal AuM for the industry grew by 8.3% (6.9% attributable to MTM) while overall AuM grew by 9.8% to Rs72.2trn. Equity/debt mix in May'25 industry MAAuM was 54.3%/16%. Equity flows saw a blip in Apr'25/May'25 (may uptick in Jun'25) due to market volatility; excl. NFOs net equity flows were Rs474bn (Rs964bn in Q4FY25). We expect AMCs in our coverage to see equity QAAuM growth of 7.7% QoQ...
LPC, DIVI to deliver healthy EBITDA growth: Amongst PL universe, we expect LPC and DIVI to report higher EBIDTA growth of 43.2% and 21.6% YoY, respectively. On the other hand, CIPLA, DRRD and ZYDUSLIF are projected to report YoY decline in EBITDA given the higher base in the US. SUNP is likely to deliver moderate revenue growth YoY led by the ramp-up in the specialty and domestic portfolios; however, higher opex will restrict EBIDTA growth....
in H1FY26. Although domestic demand remains strong aided by GoI spending, Q1FY26 volume growth seems to have affected by early monsoon, heatwaves expected to benefit from a USD10-15/t decline in coking coal costs, which have fallen to USD184/t levels. As a result, EBITDA/t for our coverage companies is expected to improve on an average ~Rs2,400/t QoQ. However, with weakened steel prices on monsoon led weakness, FY26 EBIDTA growth would depend upon demand recovery in H2FY26. Uncertainties amid ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical tensions have kept...
be a key monitorable in this quarter. Due to seasonality in case of PSU banks, fees might fall by 11.1% QoQ but grow by 15.1% YoY to Rs394.7bn, which would be partially offset by 5.9% QoQ fall in opex to Rs914bn (+11.2% YoY). Core PPoP may be Rs927bn (-1.5% QoQ/+3.4% YoY) due to weaker NII/fees. Slippage ratio may increase owing to rise in agri slippages (usually in Q1). Banks' PAT is expected to decrease by 5.3% QoQ but increase by 6.2% YoY to Rs673bn....
growth would stem from rising usage of second-hand books and falling realization in the domestic stationery market. On the operating performance front, DOMS IN is likely to witness 210bps compression in EBITDA margin due high-margin syndication revenue, while NELI IN's EBITDA margin is likely to witness a compression of 40bps. Among our coverage universe, DOMS IN...
demand to some extent. However, overall demand remained mixed across regions, mainly due to extreme heatwaves affecting labor availability and demand, southern markets saw the steepest price hike during the quarter,...
The pain for agrochemical focused companies is expected to persist, with margins to remain under pressure in the near term. Chinese companies continue to remain a significant competitive threat to Indian chemical manufacturers. In CY24, chemical production in China grew by 9.1% now constituting 86% of global chemical production, substantially outpacing India's growth of just 1.5%. However, with several anti-dumping investigations currently underway by the DGTR, we expect several domestic chemical companies to benefit once these duties are implemented. Companies with...
(Cu up 3.5%/3.9% & Al up 2.9%/3.9% in May'25/Jun'25). Cables are expected demand, though realizations were impacted by raw material price fluctuations to outpace wires in Q1FY26 due to stronger demand from industrial and infrastructure segments. We estimate Havells/ Polycab /KEI/RR Kabel to see...
of 50% and 30%, respectively. Profitability is set to improve sharply, with margin expansion across the board driven by increasing exposure to high- their strategic focus on higher margin sectors and orders, which should further support margin expansion in the coming quarters. We expect our EMS universe to register sales/EBITDA/PAT growth of 7.5%/73.5%/59.1% YoY in Q1FY26, on the back of robust order execution and margin improvement led by cost rationalization and increased contribution from high-margin segments. We continue our positive view on EMS companies...
We cut our FY27E EPS estimates by 4% as we account for dilution impact resulting from issuance of ~169.5mn fully convertible warrants at a price of Rs132 on a preferential basis to entities forming part of the promoter group. Out of the total preferential proceeds of ~Rs22.4bn, Z IN plans to deploy ~Rs10bn towards building new businesses, ~Rs7.1bn towards inorganic expansion while the balance will be utilized for general & corporate purposes. Post warrant conversion, promoter stake will increase to 18.3% lending better execution comfort on achieving 1) TV viewership share of ~17.5%, 2) adrevenue growth of ~8-10% and 3) EBITDA margin of ~18-20% in FY26E. We...
Oil prices decline, LPG under-recovery improves: A slew of concerns over trade tariffs and global GDP combined with increased supply of 1.2mnbopd resulted in Brent diving to below USD60/bbl for a while and then picking up subsequently to average USD68/bbl during the quarter, a decline from USD75.7/bbl in Q4FY25. Decline in oil prices would result in falling realizations of ~8% QoQ for ONGC and Oil India. Decline in oil prices would aid gross marketing margins on petrol and diesel sequentially from Rs10.4/6.4/lit to Rs12/10/lit respectively. Decline in benchmark LPG prices would also reduce...
Building Material companies under our coverage universe are expected to report single digit revenue growth due to weak demand, along with contraction in margins due to fluctuations in PVC resin prices in plastic pipe companies and tiles, due to oversupply in the domestic market, which has leads pricing pressure. We anticipate moderate volume growth of 5.2% YoY in plastic pipe sector. Tiles and bathware sectors are likely to experience single digit growth expecting demand to pick up in H2FY26. We expect coverage companies to register sales growth of 4.3% YoY, given correction in Finolex Ind revenue and...
