We downgrade our rating from BUY to Accumulate given 1) 28% jump in stock price since our upgrade and 2) rising probability that Copra price decline in the current down cycle will be far lower than previous occasions....

Momentum in balance sheet growth has further picked up with loan growth of 35% driven by across segments. While NII growth of 21% is in line with our expectations, PAT growth of 5% is tad above our expectations. While ILFS exposure of Rs30bn is still standard, bank has made standard asset provision of Rs2.5bn during the quarter in addition to Rs2.8bn made during last quarter. We have cut our earnings by 5% for FY19, factoring in additional provision for ILFS in Q4. We retain our BUY rating with a TP of Rs1,935 (Rs1,980 earlier)...

IIB's earnings of Rs9.85bn (PLe: Rs9.96bn) was largely in-line with estimates but PPOP of Rs21.2bn (PLe: Rs20.8bn) beat estimates on strong treasury gains. It continued to make contingent provisions of Rs2.5bn (Rs2.75bn in Q2FY19) on IL&FS; exposure, taking total provisions to >Rs6.0bn (30% PCR). Management guided that there could be some acceleration in provisions ahead to get PCR to desired level of 40-50% as clarity on haircut & asset cover on holdco is emerging, while there could be classification towards NPA ahead as account is in SMA1&2. Operationally bank continues to cruise smoothly...

9 January 2019 IndusInd Banks (IIB) PAT grew by a muted 5% YoY to INR9.8b in 3QFY19 due to contingent provision of INR2.55b (toward infra group). NII grew 21% YoY, while NIM was largely flat at 3.83% on account of a rise in cost of funds. Total income increased 22% YoY on the back of healthy other income growth of 24% YoY. Core fees grew 18% YoY, led by higher forex income and loan processing fees. Opex growth (+16% YoY) trailed total income growth, resulting in robust 27% YoY growth in PPoP. Loan growth came in at 35% YoY, led by robust growth in the corporate segment. Consumer portfolio grew 28% YoY (+7% QoQ), led by strong traction in CV loans, equipment financing and credit card segments. The share of retail loans in total book stands at 39% (45% including business banking). MFI book stood at INR75.2b (4.34% of loans).

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We believe, CUB with superior NIM, best return profile, grip on asset quality with greater bottom-line visibility over the medium term should continue to fetch higher multiple. Initiate BUY with a Target Price of Rs 228/sh (2.9x FY21E ABV ).

We expect a lacklustre festive season for Auto OEMs to translate into slower disbursal growth for vehicle financiers. Given the steep rise in CoF (post IL&FS) and a large fixed rate book, NIM compression for asset financiers is imminent. Stable asset quality in certain segments may well be the only silver lining. We expect the HFCs in our coverage (LICHF and Repco) to report a mixed qtr. While business momentum will sustain, NIMs/spreads will come under pressure. Asset quality is a key monitorable, given LAP/CRE exposures for some players. 3QFY19 is expected to be predominantly good for banks. With system credit growth at 15% YoY (Dec-18), we expect large banks to register higher loan growth. Meanwhile, NIM tailwinds are expected to play out, driven by an increase in pricing power and lower slippages. As bond yields have fallen, treasury gains will accrue. On the asset quality front, stress accretion will reduce (except IL&FS;). Credit costs may remain high for corporate heavy banks and PCR will continue to improve. The change in guard at the RBI will impact liquidity and PSB reforms (e.g. PCA) and must be watched closely.

Maintain BUY. Our TP is Rs 1,255 at 14x Dec-20E EPS (in-line with 5-yr avg multiple). We recently hosted HCL Techs (HCLT) CFO for investor meetings. The discussions covered organic business and Mode-3 strategy (esp. the recent product acquisition). HCLT has under-performed peers ~30% over the last two years on (1) Organic growth slowdown, with IMS slowing from 9% to 4% YoY, and (2) Balance sheet-heavy capital allocation strategy. HCLTs rev/PAT/OCF share in tier-1 IT has been steady at ~15%.

8 January 2019 TELXs revenue grew 17.8% YoY to INR4.07b in 3QFY19, lower than our estimate of +20% YoY. The company delivered INR revenue growth of 1% QoQ, which implies a sequential decline in USD revenue (as INR depreciated by 2%+ QoQ against USD). On a YoY basis too, USD revenue growth decelerated to 5.4% from 19% only three quarters ago. This can partially be attributed to 3Q seasonal weakness. EBITDA margin shrank 110bp QoQ to 25.4%, below our estimate of 26%. PBT margin of 23.2% missed managements guidance of 24-25%, mainly due to forex losses. Consequently, PAT grew by only 5% YoY (-20% QoQ; our quarter, 3Q saw a much slower growth in Software development (97% of revenue; +1% v/s +6% in 2QFY19), while System Integration (SI; 3% of revenue) grew 19% QoQ (v/s -12% QoQ in 2QFY19). PBT margin came in at 23.2%, lower than our estimate of 26.5%.

8 January 2019 The aggression demonstrated by the PGHH management in recent quarters on increase in ad spends, new launches and price cuts, wherever required. Continued market share gain in Vicks. New product - Vicks Baby Rub, launched in FY18 is reportedly doing very well. While valuations of 51.7x FY20 EPS implies that near-term upside is limited, category growth potential in the Feminine Hygiene segment (~67% of sales) and potential for market share growth because of its considerable moats, and (2) Potentially huge margin gains from premiumization in Feminine Hygiene over the longer term. Increasing pace of distribution expansion, continuing strong pace of category development efforts in schools to boost awareness and growth, rising ad spends after a lull in preceding years, healthy pipeline of new products and willingness to take price cuts whenever required to boost growth are all encouraging developments that should aid rapid growth for the company over the long term.