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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • Mahanagar Gas: This city gas distributor hiked prices for compressed natural gas (CNG) and domestic piped natural gas (PNG) by Rs 2/kg and Rs 1.5 per standard cubic meter. This is the fourth time gas prices were hiked in Mumbai, with the last price revision on September 30, 2021. This should offset the ever-rising input gas costs. The price of liquefied natural gas price touched historical highs with a 62% revision to $2.9 per barrel, since October 2021. CNG and PNG prices are likely to go up. The companies plan to pass on the price hikes to consumers, in a phased manner, without unfavorable effects on margins. The price hikes however have to carry out in a progressive manner as the supply side rate hike cannot be passed in one go. The company’s Q2FY22 total revenue was up 35% QoQ to Rs 930.16 crore. According to reports, Mahanagar Gas’s ROCE is 28% which is an outstanding number depicting returns. Margins for CNG and domestic PNG segments will recover as CNG has a price advantage over petrol and diesel.

    • Havells: This white goods company gained on the bourses on Thursday during market hours as the company inaugurated a new plant for washing production at Ghiloth. This will help strengthen Llyod’s (a subsidiary of Havells’) production capacity. The company’s growth prospects look good as the revenue this quarter was almost 31% up on a YoY basis. Havells has a product mix in terms of B2B and B2C segments with a good PAN India presence. This will help clock in more sales and Q3FY22 might see a reduction in cost margins as well. Brokerages expect volume growth across all its products segments including lighting, fans, home appliances. The management however sees a lag in the growth of cables as most of its revenue growth was price-led and not demand-driven. Havells growth prospects look good in H2FY22 as demand will be both consumer and industry-driven.

    • One97 Communications (Paytm): Much to the dismay of its upbeat investors, Paytm’s shares closed at a new low of Rs 1,304 on Monday. Interestingly, a recent report with a ‘BUY’ rating from Morgan Stanley (MS) could be a redeeming factor for the company’s stock. In its report, MS valued the company at $17 billion with a two-year target price of Rs 1,875, which translates to an upside of around 40% from current levels. The brokerage expects Paytm to break even in EBITDA terms by FY25 and clock a revenue CAGR of 43% to reach the level of Rs 16,500 crore by FY26.The brokerage is particularly positive on Paytm’s prospects as the penetration of third-party financial services is very low in India. As Paytm scales up its financial services business, it could boost the share of its non-payment revenues in the overall sales mix to 40% from nearly 25% at the end of H1FY22. The company has a cumulative user base of 33 crore, with nearly 6.3 crore monthly active users. Morgan Stanley believes that such volumes give the company a unique advantage that it can leverage to create relevant financial products based on its repository of consumer data.The take rates (fees charged on gross merchandise value) in the company’s payments business have softened with the advent of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) in 2016. Hence, the profitability in the payments business remains low. Higher competition in the payments space and lower wallets’ merchant discount rates (according to RBI’s latest discussion paper) remain key downside risks for Paytm.

    • Tatva Chintan Pharma: After a bumper listing at a 95% premium to the issue price of Rs 1,083 on July 29, this niche specialty chemicals maker nearly tripled and traded close to Rs 3,000 levels. ICICI Securities initiated its coverage on this company with a target price of Rs 2,920, which is still lower than the lifetime high of Rs 2,977.80 it touched at the beginning of November. The brokerage expects the company’s positioning in the green chemistry domain to help expand its product portfolio and achieve long-term revenue growth. The company’s exposure to new-age industries like supercapacitor batteries and lithium-ion batteries provides enough visibility for growth.

    • Wipro: This IT services company is continuing its acquisition spree. After acquiring Capco, Ampion, and Lean Swift in the past year,  the company announced another acquisition, this time a  US-based cybersecurity firm called Edgile. . Its acquisition of Capco drastically improved its conversion of large deals in the financial services sector. The management is open to acquiring a business that will help it drive revenue growth. To get a sense of this, Wipro’s revenues grew at a 4% compounded quarterly growth rate in the past four completed quarters which helped it cross the quarterly run rate for $10 billion annual revenues. And this is purely organic revenue growth. The company’s main focus is increasing its market share in $200-300 million deals in the industry. Brokerages have a positive lookout on the demand front as many companies are now using technology not just to cut costs to improve efficiency but to also increase revenues. Brokerages maintain a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock as growth looks upbeat in H2FY22. 
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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2021
    Chart of the Week: Airlines’ passenger load factor makes a swift recovery, nears pre-pandemic levels.

    Chart of the Week: Airlines’ passenger load factor makes a swift recovery, nears pre-pandemic levels.

    Domestic air passenger traffic steadily increased with the waning of the second Covid wave starting June 2021. Cut to November 2021, the total passengers carried by the airlines crossed the milestone of 1 crore for the first time since March 2020. Pick-up in adult vaccinations, lower Covid-19 infections, and the festive season proved to be a breather for the airline industry. 

    These developments had a positive impact on the passenger load factor (PLF) of major airlines. PLF measures the capacity utilization of an airline based on the passengers it carries. The average PLF for the top five airlines rose to 80.9% in November from 68.3% in July. The PLF figure for November 2020 was 72.6% and for November 2019 was 88.8%. Weak demand from the corporate traveler segment is one of the primary causes why PLF is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. 

    What’s interesting is that Air India reported the highest sequential improvement in PLF from 76% in October 2021 to 82% in November 2021, surpassing Indigo’s PLF by a margin of 150 bps. It will be worthwhile to see how the tide turns for the Maharaja as Tata Sons take over its reigns on January 23, 2022. 

    As the airlines return to the state of normalcy in 2022, the spread of the new Covid variant, Omicron, can serve as a potential threat to the recovery hitherto achieved.

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    The Baseline created a screener Low Durability Score Stock …
    20 Dec 2021

    Low Durability Score Stock Performance

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    The Baseline created a screener Low Durability Score Stock …
    20 Dec 2021

    Low Durability Score Stock Performance

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    The Baseline
    17 Dec 2021
    Chart of the Week: Life insurance companies see new business premiums surge

    Chart of the Week: Life insurance companies see new business premiums surge

    Life insurance companies’ new business premium growth picked up sharply in November 2021. Among private insurers, SBI LifeInsurance’s new business premium rose 130% month-on-month (MoM) in November. This was largely aided by growth in the group single premium category. It had the highest market share of 8.77% in November 2021, gaining ground from HDFC Life which had led new business premiums in May.

    ICRA expects new business premium growth to pick up in H2FY22. However, a possibility of a third pandemic wave may impact the profitability of life insurers as most companies are building reserves for future Covid-19 related death claims.

    HDFC Life Insurance’s new business premium grew 4% MoM in December to Rs 1,928.6 crore while ICICI Prudential Life Insurance’s grew at 11%, and Max Financial Services’ arm Max Life Insurance grew at 15%.

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    The Baseline
    17 Dec 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • SBI Cards and Payment Services: This credit card company’s stock took a beating over the past 7-10 days after the RBI announced that it would come up with a discussion paper on the charges involved in various digital payment modes including credit cards, debit cards, and UPI. The regulator’s aim is to make digital transactions affordable for the users and financially viable for the service providers. However, card issuing companies are likely to be at the receiving end in case of a reduction in merchant discount rates (MDR). The company derives 24% of its revenues from the ‘spend-based fee’ segment. This is basically an interchange fee that it charges from merchants for processing card-based transactions. This fee constitutes 70-80% of MDR, with the remaining portion being shared by the payment network and the point-of-sale terminal providers.  Although brokerage Motilal Oswal expects the company’s earnings to take a hit of 8-17% in case MDR is slashed by 10-20%, it still remains bullish on the company’s prospects. The brokerage expects the impact of any such move by the RBI to be mitigated by limiting the incentives the company offers to card users.

    • Shriram Transport Finance: This company’s promoter Shriram Capital recently announced a merger of the company and Shriram City Union Finance with itself. The merger will ease the corporate structure as Shriram Capital and Shriram City Union Finance will merge into Shriram Transport Finance Company. The merged entity will be called Shriram Finance. Shriram Finance is expected to be one of the largest retail NBFC with a focus on providing a diversified loan mix for MSME, two-wheeler, gold, and housing loans. The combined asset under management is expected to be around Rs 1.5 lakh crore with a distribution network of over 3500+ locations. The merger is expected to bring down the cost of funds by 30-40 bps. HDFC Securities remains skeptical of gains from the merger and maintains an ‘Accumulate’ rating on the company. Edelweiss however remains positive on the stock and maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.

    • Tata Steel: This integrated steel maker is facing a dip in demand for steel due to seasonal weakness. The company reported a 12.9% QoQ revenue growth in Q2FY22 to Rs 60,283 crore because of an increase in Indian operations’ revenues. With partial lockdowns impacting steel consumption in Q1FY22, production dipped from 7.88 million tonnes to 7.77 million tonnes in Q2FY22. Rising raw materials cost is no relief for this industry as it is eating into EBITDA margins. Also, as demand for steel is likely to increase in Q3FY22, the company will not have a respite in terms of increasing costs. ICICI Securities and BNP Paribas have downgraded the target price for this stock as the company’s expenses are likely to increase by 27% QoQ as it plans to expand production capacities. Brokerages however remain positive on the stock as a spike in steel demand and new product launches will drive revenues in H2FY22.

    • Computer Age Management Services(CAMS): This service provider to mutual funds, insurance companies, pension funds, among others, saw a reversal of its stock’s fortunes from September 2021 onwards. After its IPO in September 2020, its share price more than tripled within a year. Seen as a play on financialisation of savings in India with more investors moving to invest in stocks through mutual funds, it was the toast of the markets during this period. But from the beginning of September 2021, the stock’s upward price movement seems to have lost its legs after touching a life high of Rs 4,067.40. Then came the announcement that Kotak Mahindra Bankpicked up around 10% stake in its competitor KFintech. A natural corollary to this could be that the bank’s mutual fund arm would switch its business to KFintech from CAMS. Although this hasn’t happened yet, the stock’s 33% fall from an all-time high in September 2021 seems to reflect this sentiment. Then came the news that its promoter entity sold a 7.17% stake in the company on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see whether this company’s positioning as a long-term play on the growth of Indian capital markets will sustain. This is relevant considering many new mutual funds that received approvals are signing up with KFintech as a partner.

    • Burger King India: This restaurant operator is making some big moves within a year of listing on the stock exchanges. It is in the process of acquiring Burger King Indonesia, a company owned by its ultimate holding company F&B Asia Ventures (Singapore) for $183 million. It will also pump in another $40 million in the business to fund its expansion. Burger King Indonesia is the second-largest quick-service restaurant chain in Indonesia. There will also be an additional fund infusion to settle and pay off Burger King Indonesia’s debt. The deal is slated to close by April 30, 2022. The company is planning to raise up to Rs 1,500 crore to fund this issue of shares. The Indonesian business has 178 restaurants and one sub-franchise, and its revenues for 2019 were $100 million. The thing to note here for investors is that Burger King India hasn’t made a quarterly profit, based on available data, since December 2019.

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    The Baseline
    10 Dec 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • Solara Active Pharma Sciences: This active pharmaceutical ingredients maker’s five promoter entities together pledged nearly 3.84% of their stake in the company. The close to one-third loss in its market value over the past six months probably led one of the promoter entities--Chayadeep Properties--to provide additional security to lender Bajaj Finance Securities. Other promoter entities that pledged shares to raise loans are Pronomz Ventures LLP, Karuna Ventures, Karun Business Solutions LLP, Agnus Holdings and Chayadeep Properties. The company is currently in the process of completing its merger with Aurore Life Sciences, Hydra Active Pharma Sciences and Empyrean Lifesciences 

    • Manappuram Finance: Brokerages recently upgraded their rating for this stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ as valuations are looking good for this NBFC company. Manappuram’s main product portfolio of gold loans saw a sharp rebound in Q2FY22, after continuously declining in Q4FY21 and Q1FY22. The jump is attributed to the high ticket size of gold loans. Total AUM for the company grew at 14.8% QoQ and gold loans paced up by 13.2% QoQ.  Asset quality improved as gross NPAs of gold loans reduced to 1.6% from 2% QoQ.

    Despite the upturn in loans, net profit declined 15% QoQ because of a decrease in net yields. The management expects yields to further decline in Q3FY22, temporarily, before it stabilizes. Overall, analysts like Axis Securities and BNP Paribas, have a positive outlook for this stock as the company is in a comfortable liquidity situation and gold loans are expected to rise 10-15% in FY22. 

    • ICICI Bank: India’s leading private bank, ICICI Bank, recently held an analyst day event in order to showcase its digital offerings for the retail and corporate customers. Post this event, analysts are upbeat on the prospects of the private lender and expect of upto 52% upside in its stock price over the next one year, with an average upside of a little over 11.57%.

    ICICI Bank's collaboration with Amazon Pay was fruitful with more than two million co-branded credit cards being issued in the last three years. ICICI Bank expanded its market share in credit card issuances by 200 bps between October 2020 and October 2021, and by 800 bps in terms of the credit card spends. The banks’ monthly UPI transactions have grown at 89% YoY in October 2021. Analysts expect the bank’s earnings to grow at a CAGR of 20%+ between FY22E-FY24E and ROE to improve to 15% by FY23 due to double-digit growth in its loan book, gains in market share across segments and tech initiatives.

    • Vodafone Idea: This telecom company saw an incredible up move over the past few weeks, leading to its stock tripling over the past year, and touched a 52-week high Thursday. This stock is also one of the most  overbought stocks on technical indicators RSI and MFI. It was one of the highest gainers on Thursday. Its over 50% spike over the past six trading sessions pushed the company’s stock above all its simple moving averages.

    • Brightcom Group: This company recently announced a merger deal which saw its stock rise over 22% in a week. As part of the deal, the company will acquire Vuchi Media, which operates under the brand name MediaMint, for Rs 566 crore. This will include paying the shareholder of Vuchi Rs 360 crore in cash at closing, Rs 170 crore in Brighcom Group shares, and another Rs 36 crore cash six months after closing the deal. The company’s TTM revenues were Rs 3,354.5 crore and a TTM net profit of Rs 596.3 crore. It generated a negative operating cash flows of nearly Rs 252 crore. The company’s cash equivalents as on September 30, 2021 was just Rs 37.21 crore. It will be interesting to see how Brightcom Group manages to fund this deal.

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    The Baseline
    09 Dec 2021
    Chart of the Week: Two-wheeler retail sales spike in November

    Chart of the Week: Two-wheeler retail sales spike in November

    The auto industry is reeling under the stress of semiconductor shortages, rise in transportation costs and a surge in fuel prices. Wholesale dispatches of two-wheeler companies fell over the past 2-3 months. This dovetailed with weak retail sales for Bajaj Auto,  Royal Enfield and Hero MotoCorp. 

    Retail sales of the four two-wheeler makers rose in June and July as the country’s economy unlocked after the devastating effect of the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. But retail sales started to taper off from August, indicating that the initial jump was from pent-up demand. In the lead up to the October-November festive period, two-wheeler makers pushed more inventory in anticipation of festive purchases. There was decent demand for bikes and scooters, but overall purchases were below expectations. Retail sales in November 2021 were lower than both November 2020 and the pre-Covid November 2019 period.  

    This indicates a severe demand problem in the automotive sector, and not just supply chain challenges. High fuel prices have also played spoilsport. It will be interesting to see whether Hero MotoCorp, with its stock touching new 52-week lows consistently, can recover from this blow.

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    The Baseline created a screener Reversals in the past …
    08 Dec 2021, 12:09AM

    Reversals in the past month

    Multibagger stocks that saw sharp reversals in share price over the past month
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    The Baseline
    03 Dec 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • Dish TV India: This DTH player’s stock hit its upper circuit in trade today after a news report said Bharti Airtel was looking to buy a majority stake in the company at a 16% premium. In a clarification to the exchanges, the company denied these reports. The Supreme Court on Tuesday overturned a High Court order freezing Yes Bank’s 25.6% stake in the DTH company which allowed the private bank to participate in the AGM later in the day. It will be interesting to see if the reported interest in Dish TV actually pans out.

    • Gujarat Fluorochemicals: This specialty chemicals maker is on fire. It touched a 52-week high of Rs 2,387.80 on Thursday after ICICI Securities initiated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price upside of 50%. The brokerage sees the company poised to benefit from its presence in manufacturing fluorochemicals polymers. These products are increasingly being used to make lithium-ion batteries, solar panels and green hydrogen. GFL is in the process of expanding its production capacity of fluoropolymers. The company is also expanding into other fluorine derivatives used for the same use cases. It earmarked Rs 2,500 crore to invest in its capacity expansion. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.

    • Cadila Healthcare: This pharmaceutical company is interestingly poised. Its Q2FY22 net profit rose over 6.5 times to over Rs 3,000 crore due to a near Rs 2,500 crore exceptional gain of its animal healthcare business. The company’s stock took off in April 2021 and touched a life high of Rs 673.70 around the middle of June 2021. But the stock has since tapered off to Rs 454.20 as of Thursday end of trade. Now, the company’s under production Covid-19 vaccine ZyCoV-D will be used in as many as seven states. Although the vaccine was approved for use in for those aged under 12 years, it will be initially used to inoculate only adults in states with low vaccinations. The company will provide the government 1 crore doses. The company’s US business is facing some slowdown, and will take at least a year to stabilise once its foray into complex injectables picks up.

    • Hero MotoCorp: This two-wheeler maker’s stock was the only one that hit a 52-week low on Thursday before bouncing back up. The company’s weak November 2021 wholesales fell 41% to 3,49,393 units as delayed monsoon withdrawal impacted its harvesting in many parts of the country, which led to muted post festival demand. This fall in wholesales led the two-wheeler maker to surrender the title of the largest two-wheeler seller in India to Bajaj Auto based on November’s wholesales data.

    • BSE: This exchange’s stock is flying. It’s one of the most overbought stocks among the Nifty 500 companies according to technical indicators like RSI and MFI. The stock touched a 52-week high today in trade with nearly 2.75 times its weekly average volumes being traded on Thursday.

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