Orient Cement Ltd. share price target

Volumes decline but pricing improves: Volumes declined 6% YoY to 1.5mt in 1QFY20. However, realizations increased 14% YoY (+11%QoQ) to INR4,552, led by strong pricing in underlying markets. Revenue grew 7.5% YoY (-8% QoQ) to INR6.8b (in-line). driving margins improvement: Cost/t increased 3% YoY (+9% QoQ) to INR3,562/t, as freight cost/t inched up 6% YoY (+8% QoQ), primarily due to higher lead distance as ORCMNT attempted to garner sales from betterrealization markets. Other expenses/t rose 12% YoY (+25%QoQ) due to operating deleverage. However, led by healthy realizations, EBITDA/t...

ORMCNT, already a cost leader among mid size Indian cement cos, is planning to add WHRS across its Telangana and Karnataka plants by FY21E to further drive up efficiencies. Thereafter, ORCMNT hopes to commence brown-field expansions (potentially 6 MT by FY25E, across locations). This will be calibrated in line with OCF, which translates to leverage hovering around ~1x. With better operations and calibrated capex, RoCE should double to 10% in FY19-20E (vs 5% in FY18-19). We estimate EBITDA/PAT to rebound at 29/105% CAGR during FY19-21E off a weak base, driven by pricing and cost tailwinds. Our TP jumps to Rs 140 (at an affordable 8x FY21E EBITDA). Upgrade to BUY from NEUTRAL. Key risks include weak cement pricing, higher fuel prices and reckless capex (all of which look unlikely hereon). Orient Cement (ORCMNT) becomes a conviction BUY from NEUTRAL (in our 4QFY19 preview), with a TP of Rs 140 (at a mere 8x FY21E EBITDA). A robust comeback in Q4, continued realization and cost tailwinds and calibrated capex outlook drive our rediscovered confidence.

Sector: Cement /Small Cap | Earnings Update 4QFY19 Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized south based cement manufacturer. The company emerged as one of the fastest growing and leading cement manufacturer in India with a capacity of 8 MTPA with clinker manufacturing capacity 5.5 MTPA and captive power capacity of 95MW. The Company is primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of Cement and its...

8 February 2019 Revenue grew 12% YoY (+2% QoQ) to INR5.7b and volumes increased 10% YoY to 1.51mt; both were in line with our estimates. Realizations at INR 3,782/t (+1%YoY;-1% QoQ) also came in line with our estimate due to weaker prices in underlying markets. Cost/t increased 2% YoY (-1%QoQ) to INR3531/t as freight cost/t increased 18%YoY. Power and fuel prices declined 4% YoY due to increasing AFR usage, and significantly better consumption metrics across plants, especially Chittapur. Thus, EBITDA/t stood at INR251 (-12% YoY; +3% QoQ), resulting in EBITDA of INR379m, -3%YoY (v/s our est. Margins came in at 6.6% (-1pp YoY, +0.3pp QoQ). Orient Cement reported PBT loss of INR202m (v/s loss of INR248m in 3QFY18) as against our estimate of loss at INR161m. As a result, there was a loss of INR137m (PAT) as against our estimate of INR105m loss (v/s INR177m loss in 3QFY18).

6 November 2018 Revenue grew 7% YoY (-12% QoQ) to INR5.6b (in line with est.), as volumes increased 13% YoY to 1.47mt (est. Realizations were at INR 3,815/ton (-5% YoY; -4% QoQ) (v/s est. INR3,982) due to better-than-estimated prices in underlying markets. Cost/ton increased 4%YoY (+3%QoQ) to INR3,572/ton as freight cost/ton increased 5% YoY led by increase in diesel prices. Power and fuel prices increased 4% YoY due to an increase in fuel prices. Thus EBITDA/ton stood at INR243 (-58% YoY; -54% QoQ) resulting in EBITDA of INR358m, -52% YoY (est. Margins came in at 6.4% (- 7.8pp YoY, -6.

Sector: Cement /Small Cap | Earnings Update 1QFY19 Background: Orient Cement, a CK Birla group company, formed in 2012 following the demerger from Orient Paper and Industries ltd, is a mid-sized south based cement manufacturer. The company emerged as one of the fastest growing and leading cement manufacturer in India with a capacity of 8 MTPA with clinker manufacturing capacity ~6 MTPA and captive power capacity of 50MW. The Company is primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of Cement and its...

1 August 2018 Revenue grew 12.7% YoY (+3% QoQ) to INR6.4b (est. of INR5.7b) in 1QFY19, as volumes increased 15% YoY to 1.6mt (est. Volume growth was on account of low base and healthy demand from underlying markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. Realizations stood at INR3,992/ton (+8% QoQ) versus our estimate of INR3,866/ton due to better-than-estimated prices in Maharashtra as also impact of higher FOR sales. Cost/t increased 6% QoQ (+7% YoY) to INR3,459 due to 10%QoQ increase in P&F; cost (unavailability of domestic coal leading to sourcing of higher cost alternatives). Freight cost/t increased 10% QoQ to due to higher diesel prices as also higher FOR sales. However, EBITDA/t stood at INR533 (-36% YoY, +20% QoQ; est. of INR498), resulting in EBITDA of INR854m (-27% YoY, +15% QoQ) versus our estimate of INR737m due to better than estimated realizations.

Strong cost control QoQ offset impact of lower volume YoY Orient Cement (ORCMNT) posted flattish EBITDA YoY in Q4FY18, as increased competition drove volume decline YoY, and aggressive pricing led to weak NSR QoQ. Lower opex QoQ moderated YoY cost inflation. The JPA's assets acquisition is getting delayed owing to pending approvals. We remain wary of this inorganic acquisition which will keep leverage high, and return ratios subdued. We maintain HOLD with TP of Rs150. Volume declined 3% YoY, market share loss continues: Sales volume recovered 23% QoQ to 1.68mn MT, but still fell 3% YoY. Utilisation stood at 84% (vs 87% YoY and 69% QoQ)....

Cost/t declined 6% QoQ (+8% YoY) to INR3,2 51 due to positive operating leverage and lower P&F cost (better efficiency parameters). Freight cost/t increased 6% QoQ to INR1,055 due to higher diesel prices. Thus, EBITDA/t stood at INR445 (+2% YoY, +56% QoQ; est. of INR244), resulting in EBITDA of INR746m (-1% YoY, +91% QoQ) versus our estimate of INR440m. ORCMNT reported PBT of INR182m and PAT of INR128m (-23% YoY; est. of a loss of INR38m).