Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

Natural gas revenue improved YoY aided by higher nomination gas price at USD 6.64/MMBTU versus USD 6.50/MMBTU Q1FY25 and strong new well gas contribution at USD 8.26/MMBTU, delivering revenue of Rs. 1,703cr with a 20% premium. EBITDA grew 0.5% YoY to Rs. 17,185cr, while EBITDA margin expanded 520bps YoY to 53.7%, supported by improved operating efficiency. ONGC's outlook is reinforced by its offshore exploration successes, notably the Vajramani' prospectus and Suryamani' pool discovery, highlighting its exploration *over or under performance to benchmark index led growth potential. Production from the PY-3 field along with special dispensation...

New Well Gas (NWG) expected at 2.6bcm in FY26 with sharply lower oil price realization of USD66.1/bbl in Q1 vs USD73.7/bbl in Rs322bn). EBITDA of Rs186.6bn (-2% QoQ) was in-line with our estimate of 187.6bn & consensus of Rs182bn. Lower DDA/write-offs of Rs80bn vs Rs111bn in the previous quarter was partially countered by lower other income of...

Oil production in KG-Basin to ramp up from 35kbopd to 45kbopd Mixed production profile of standalone oil (+0.4% QoQ) and gas (-1.9% QoQ) combined with marginally higher oil price realization of USD73.7/bbl in Q4 vs USD72.6/bbl in Q3FY25 resulted in revenues of Rs349.8bn, +3.8% QoQ. EBITDA of Rs190bn (+0.2% QoQ) was 3.8% higher than our est of 183.2bn & consensus of Rs179.7bn. Much higher DDA led by write-offs resulted in PBT declining by 20% QoQ to Rs88bn (PLe Rs107bn) despite growth in rev. PAT stood at...

ONGC’s Q3FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.4bn, a 4% beat to our estimate, mainly led by higher-than-expected revenues. RPAT at Rs82.4bn was a 4% miss on higher DD&A; and lower other income.

ONGC’s 3QFY25 EBITDA was in line with our estimate at INR189.7b, as crude oil/gas sales came in line. Both crude oil and natural gas production trends were flat QoQ.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR182b (flat YoY) in 2QFY25, in line with our estimate. PAT was 30% above our estimate, mainly aided by higherother income.

ONGC’s Q2FY25 SA EBITDA came in at Rs170.3bn, a 9% beat to our estimate, led by lower-than-expected survey-dry wells expense and levies.

ONGC posted a 10% beat on Q1FY25E SA EBITDA, logging at Rs169.7bn led by lower than expected opex/levies. RPAT at Rs89.4bn saw a similar beat.

ONGC reported adjusted EBITDA/PAT (standalone) of INR 178.6bn (-2/+7% YoY/QoQ)/INR 89.4bn (-11/-9% YoY/QoQ) vs I-Sec’s estimate of INR 174/INR 92.7bn in Q1FY25.

ONGC reported adjusted EBITDA/PAT (standalone) for Q4FY24 of INR 166.9bn (-4% YoY)/INR 98.7bn (+12% YoY) vs. I-Sec’s estimate of INR 188.5/INR 98.1bn.

ONGC’s reported EBITDA stood at INR174b (+7% YoY) in 4QFY24, 3% below
our estimate, mainly due to higher-than-expected other expenses. The sharp
rise in other expenses was due to one-off charges of INR9b for tax-related
matters.