Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

operating profit to Rs 8839.29 crore. Other income of the company fell 30% to Rs 1079.41 crore. Interest cost fell 1% to Rs 1497.66 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 2% to Rs 5847.94 crore. PBT was down 77% Rs 2573.1 crore. Tax expenses were down 79% to Rs 922.19 crore. Net...

Crude oil prices stayed volatile in Q1FY21. Brent crude oil prices fell up to ~US$17/bbl while WTI oil prices traded in the negative for the first time in April. With demand increasing following a resumption of economic activities & Opec output cuts, Brent oil prices recovered in May, June. Average Brent crude oil prices remained lower at US$31.4/bbl, a decline of US$19.2/bbl QoQ. In Q2FY21E, oil prices are in range of US$45/bbl. Going ahead, we model net realisation of US$39.4/bbl for FY21E, US$48.5/bbl for FY22E at Brent oil prices of US$41/bbl, US$ 50/bbl, respectively, taking into account...

ONGC's Q1FY21 earnings at Rs 5bn (90% YoY) outperformed estimates on lower operating costs.

2 September 2020 Net oil realization stood at USD28.7/bbl (v/s est. Net sales were in line at INR130b (-51% YoY). EBITDA stood at INR59b (v/s est. +26%, -61% YoY), on lower other expenditure. This was primarily due to lower travelling/employee cost, lower statutory levies and cess, and lower feedstock gas prices at Dahej petchem plant. ONGC believes that DD&A; may remain at the same levels but other costs may decline significantly, led by various cost cutting measures. Tax was higher at 45.1% (v/s est. 33.3%), due to further provisioning of Service Tax/GST on Royalty as contingent liability. The matter is listed for hearing in the second week of Sep20 before the Honorable High Court of Rajasthan.

ONGC's Q1FY21 result was a beat to our forecast on EBITDA and Net profit front. Revenue was down 51% YoY to Rs130bn on the back of lower crude oil & gas volume and realization both. Oil sales volume declined by 2.6% YoY to 5.2mmt whereas gas sales volume declined by 15% YoY to 4.2bcm. Net oil realization also declined 57% YoY to US$28.7/bbl while net gas realization dipped 35% YoY to US$2.7/mmbtu. Consequently, EBITDA fell by 63% YoY to Rs47.8bn whereas PAT declined 92% YoY to Rs5bn, negatively impacted by lower other income. The company expects gas price revision to see some changes and expects it to remain at higher levels in next revision....

ONGC reported 7% decrease in its topline to Rs 104488.95 crore in Q4FY20 compared to corresponding previous year period. OPM fell to 3.5% from 15.6% leading to 79% fall in operating profit to Rs 3638.66 crore. Other income of the company rose 39% to Rs 3525.37 crore. Interest cost rose 52% to Rs 2191.34 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 8% to Rs 6771.78 crore. PBT before EO reported loss of Rs 1799.09 crore compared to profit of Rs 12370.11 crore. The...

ONGC's Q4FY20 result was impacted negatively by higher impairment losses (Rs 49bn), higher forex loss (Rs11.1 bn) and higher dry-well write off (Rs26.4 bn). Revenue was down 20% YoY to Rs 214.6bn on the back of 20% YoY lower crude oil realization at US$50.5/bbl. Oil sales volume declined by 7.3% YoY to 5.4mmt whereas gas sales volume declined 10.6% YoY to 4.7bcm. Further, standalone EBITDA declined by 37% YoY to Rs5 bn due to higher forex losses of Rs11.1bn. The company reported net loss of Rs31 bn while adjusted PAT declined 83% YoY to Rs7.1 bn. We forecast oil price of US$40/50/bbl for FY21/FY22 while oil and gas production decline of 2% for FY21 and 1% growth in FY22. We resume our coverage...

30 June 2020 Standalone revenue of INR214.6b (-20% YoY, -10% QoQ) was marginally higher than our estimate. The YoY decline was primarily due to lower oil price realization (at USD49/bbl in 4QFY20). However, EBITDA came in lower than estimate at INR85.9b (~-30% YoY/QoQ), impacted by higher other expenditure. ONGC recorded INR11.1b on account of exchange loss and INR3.7b on account of Ind-AS 116 related adjustment. If adjusted for the above stated two charges, EBITDA stands at INR101b (in line v/s est. DDA stood at INR80.4b (v/s est. Higher DDA and lower other income resulted in PBT of INR10.1b (lower ~82% YoY/QoQ).

Opec+ output cut deal not enough; oversupply to continue From the start of 2020, Brent oil prices have declined ~60% while WTI oil prices went below zero. In March, a disagreement between Opec and Russia regarding production cut led to a price war in the global market. This led Brent oil prices to drop to ~US$30/bbl. In April, finally Opec+ announced a deal to reduce oil output by 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd). As per IEA, global oil demand could drop by ~23 mbpd in Q1FY21E amid spread of Covid-19, which meant that even if a 9.7 mbpd output cut takes place in May,...

Key takeaways from our recent interaction with the ONGC management.