Nilkamal Ltd. share price target

Nilkamal’s Q1 revenue surged 18.9% y/y to Rs8.8bn. Gross profit was up 15.5% y/y to Rs3.7bn. Business restructuring and front-loading of costs w.r.t the Hosur, TN plant restricted EBITDA to Rs580m, up 2.9% y/y.

Nilkamal’s Q3 revenue grew 6.3% y/y to Rs8.5bn. Input-cost tailwinds helped the gross margin expand 126bps y/y to 43.3%. Higher employee expenses and other operating expenses pulled EBITDA down 12.9% y/y to Rs634m. PAT was down a significant 26.4%.

Nilkamal Ltd.'s (NILK) Q4FY21 result was a mix bag as net sales was above tad higher than our estimate, while margins were disappointing. Sales volume growth further strengthened in Q4FY21.However, steep increase of 20% YoY in raw material prices eroded operating margin. Net sales improved by 21.1% YoY to Rs6,799mn, while EBITDA came at Rs789mn, up by 11.7% YoY. The company reported net profit of Rs382mn, a healthy growth of 20.2% over Q4FY20. Despite challenging business environment due to pandemic, NILK's strong distribution network, healthy relationship with its customers and Company's ability of providing all in one services and robust supply chain management system were...

Nilkamal Ltd.'s (NILK) Q2FY21 result was a beat to our estimates. After a dismal performance in Q1FY21, the company has rebounded to its earlier growth trajectory, which we earlier anticipated to reflect in Q3FY21E. Net sales was down by 7.2% YoY to Rs5,343mn, while EBITDA came at Rs869mn, up by 21.1% YoY. The company reported net profit of Rs497mn, increased by 5.8% YoY. The management guided that impact of Covid-19 on organized plastic manufacturer has been positive as they gained market share from their unorganized counterparts. We believe availability of quality products at reasonable prices and supply assurance along with seamless service will continue to...

Nilkamal Ltd.'s (NILK) Q4FY20 result was beat to our estimates. Despite muted sales in second half of March, 2020, the company's net sales declined just by 1.5% YoY to Rs5,615mn. EBITDA came in at Rs706mn, up by 26.5% YoY, while PAT stood at Rs318mn, increased by 4.9% YoY. Nationwide lockdown completely halted NILK's production facilities in April and few facilities resumed production in May. However since June all the plants are operational. The management has guided subdued Q1FY21E and business to normalize in Q3FY21E. On positive side, NILK's extensive distribution network, direct connect with the industrial customers and strong brand recall amongst retail customers will enable it to...

Nilkamal (NILK) reported another subdued quarter amid challenging business environment, particularly on industrial segment front. Net sales declined by 7.3% YoY to Rs5,226 mn. Softness in raw material prices aided EBITDA, which came in at Rs630 mn, up 25.6% YoY. EBITDA margin improved by 316bps over Q3FY19 to 12.1%. Sharp increase in depreciation and interest outgo dented net profit which was at Rs276 mn, marginally up by 0.5% YoY. Plastic segment revenue was down by 8.8% YoY to Rs4,662 mn, while retail business grew by 6.1% YoY to Rs615 mn. We have revised our sales numbers downward considering muted demand outlook, while savings in raw...

Other key Highlights of Q4FY19: 1) Lifestyle (@home) business de-grew 3% YoY; 2) In Q4FY19, Nilkamal incurred a capex of INR282mn (INR1,143mn for FY19). Company has envisaged a capex of INR1,000mn-1,250mn in FY20;...

Nilkamal's (NILK) Q4FY19 result was below our estimates owing to lower-than expected volume and higher expenses. Revenue was down by 6.9% YoY to Rs5.5bn while EBITDA/PAT was down by 19.5%/16.8% YoY to Rs526mn/Rs281mn. Plastic segment revenue was down by 8.5% YoY mainly due to volume de-growth of 9% (vs. expectation of 7.5% growth). Retail segment also registered revenue decline of 2.7% YoY to Rs483 mn. We cut our FY20E Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 12%/18%/16% during FY19FY21E. We factor weak Q4FY19, introduce FY21 financials and rollover to FY21. We...

Nilkamal Ltd reported mix set of numbers for Q2FY19. Its net revenue grew by 32.1% YoY, which was above our estimates. The plastics business reported strong volume growth of 30%, largely driven by a favourable base. However, EBITDA & PAT de-grew 14.5% & 10.6% YoY, below our projections. EBITDA margins contracted 434bps YoY to 8%.

Nilkamal's (NILK) Q2FY19 results were a mix set of numbers, while revenue was a beat to our estimates, EBITDA and PAT were a miss. While revenue was up 32.1% YoY to Rs6.1bn, EBITDA/PAT was down 14.5%/10.6% YoY to Rs490/Rs249mn respectively. Plastic segment registered a value growth of 34% to Rs5.6 bn due to higher volume and realization both. Retail segment registered a growth of 5% YoY to Rs555 mn. The company's mattresses business grew by 13.2% YoY to Rs172mn. However, the company clocked 15 quarter lowest EBITDA margin of 8% (-434bps YoY) due to higher raw material prices and discounts. We cut our EBITDA/PAT estimates by 8%/7.5% for FY19E...

For 1QFY19, Nilkamal's revenue grew 17.3% YoY to INR5.7bn, largely driven by volume growth in plastic business (up ~13% YoY). EBITDA growth was up 27.4% YoY driven by lower other expenses (down 134bps) which was partly offset by rising raw material prices (up 97bps YoY). In Q1FY19, Plastic division registered a volume/realization growth of 13%/8% YoY leading to revenue growth for the division at 21%. Recently introduced mattress division is also picking up fast and the revenue for the same increased 40% YoY in 1QFY19 to INR165mn. We expect the momentum to continue on the back of increasing penetration, shift from unorganized to organized and rising affluence. 1) Plastic business volume/value grew 13%/21% YoY; 2) Retail segment declined 12% YoY mainly due to increased pre-GST sales in Q1FY18; based model and in 1QFY19, it opened one such store in Indore; 4) In Q1FY19, Nilkamal incurred a capex of INR235mn which is in-line with full year guidance of INR1,500mn capex.

Nilkamal's (NILK) Q1FY19 results were largely in-line with our estimates. Revenue was up 17.3% YoY to Rs5.7bn, EBITDA was up by 26.6% to Rs549mn and PAT was up 37.1% at Rs307mn. Plastic segment registered volume and value growth of 13% and 21% respectively on a YoY basis. Retail segment registered a de-growth of 12% YoY mainly due to increased pre-GST sales in Q1FY18, whereas it remains flattish on QoQ basis. The company's mattresses business grew by 40.5% YoY to Rs164.7mn. We are almost...

Nilkamal Ltd's Q4FY18 numbers were more or less in line with our estimates with net revenue & PAT growth of 12.1% & 5.1% YoY respectively. The volume growth in plastics business stood healthy at 9%. EBITDA grew by 11.8% YoY, while EBITDA margins stood flat at 11%.

Inline performance for 4QFY18. Better volume growth in plastics division and ramp up of mattresses segment to be the key growth driver. Performance in line: For 4QFY18, Nilkamal's revenue grew 12.1% YoY to INR5.9bn, largely driven by volume growth in plastic business (up ~8% YoY). EBITDA growth was up 11.7% YoY. Benefit of softer raw material prices was offset by increased other expenses leading to flat EBITDA margins at 11.0%. However, increased interest cost and higher tax expenses (as the tax exemptions for company's Jammu unit is over and...