Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd. share price target

Solara Active Pharma’s (Solara) Q3FY23 performance was above our estimates across all parameters. Revenue was up 16.7% QoQ to Rs.3.9bn (I-Sec: Rs.3.8bn)) with strong recovery in regulated markets.

Solara Active Pharma’s (Solara) Q2FY23 performance was below our estimates across all parameters.

Solara Active Pharma’s (Solara) Q1FY23 performance was below our estimates across all parameters. Revenue declined 18.6% YoY (-8.5%QoQ) to Rs.3.3bn (I-Sec: Rs.3.8bn) with slower recovery across segments.

The company's business seems to have lost momentum due to lower demand for Ibuprofen as well a lack of pricing power in the non-regulated market, and higher input and logistic costs. The company's margins are also at risk, forcing us to keep this scrip Under Review for now.

We expect the whole API industry to continue facing challenges due to a fall in realization as well as an increase in cost pressure. We foresee the situation to continue for the next 2-3 quarters and therefore recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with the target price of Rs 1,300/share.

We expect Gross Margins to be impacted due to an increase in revenue share from non-regulated markets and an increase in raw material prices going onwards. Hence, we recommend a HOLD rating on the stock with a target price of INR 1,670 (PE 20x for FY23EPS).

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We expect gross margins to be impacted due to an increase in revenue share from the non-regulated market going onwards, therefore recommend HOLD' with a target price of Rs 1,670/share (PE 20x for FY23EPS).

Solara has built a strong and enduring platform that consists of two essential pieces, the outside in and the inside out. In outside in, Solara global presence long-standing customer relationships, breadth of product portfolio.

Considering overall stellar performance we have incresed earnings for FY22E & FY23E and increased target price to INR 1,670 with Buy recommendations.

We have initiating coverage on SOLARA with BUY rating and a target price of Rs 1,350 (P/E of 18x for FY23E earnings) which implies an upside of 25% from the current levels.

Solara Active Pharma Sciences (Solara) has delivered its best-ever quarterly performance. Results are ahead of estimates. Sales at Rs. 397.6 crore grew by 13% y-o-y, backed by 17% y-o-y growth in regulated markets. Other markets reported 3% growth. Operating profit margin (OPM) stood at 24.5%, expanding impressively by 518 bps y-o-y, aided by 450 bps expansion in gross margin due to favourable product mix. Operating profit at Rs. 97.6 crore was up 43.5% y-o-y. PAT for the quarter stood at Rs. 56.7 crore, up 96.2% y-o-y and was ahead of estimates. Solara has proven capabilities to manufacture complex/combination active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). There are immense opportunities that have opened up for API players such as Solara. The company is witnessing...

Solara Active Pharma Sciences (Solara) has delivered its best-ever quarterly performance. Results are ahead of estimates. Sales at Rs. 397.6 crore grew by 13% y-o-y, backed by 17% y-o-y growth in regulated markets. Other markets reported 3% growth. Operating profit margin (OPM) stood at 24.5%, expanding impressively by 518 bps y-o-y, aided by 450 bps expansion in gross margin due to favourable product mix. Operating profit at Rs. 97.6 crore was up 43.5% y-o-y. PAT for the quarter stood at Rs. 56.7 crore, up 96.2% y-o-y and was ahead of estimates. Solara has proven capabilities to manufacture complex/combination active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). There are immense opportunities that have opened up for API players such as Solara. The company is witnessing...

With 16/21/30% Sales/EBITDA/EPS CAGR and improved Adj. Net Debt/Equity ratio of 0.8x (v/s 1.4x in FY18), we believe the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 16/10x on FY20/21E P/E. However, the developing Ranitidine story related to NDMA impurities could be an overhang in the near term. If Solara successfully clears the impurity hurdles, it could turn out to be a big bonanza; else, sizable Ranitidine sales could be at risk. We assign a fair value of Rs 655 (15x FY21E EPS). We recently met the management of Solara and the company is on track to expand its API and CRAMS presence over the next three years. Long-lasting contracts in high-volume APIs will provide a solid base while high-value low-volume APIs and scale-up in the CRAMS business will drive both top-line growth and profitability. We believe a 15% CAGR in top-line and 20% CAGR in EBITDA looks achievable. The recent fundraising of Rs 4.6bn will be utilized in developing capabilities in both these segments

At CMP, the stock is trading at 16.4/10.2x FY20/21E EPS, a ~30% discount to the sector-avg. We assign a fair value of Rs 650 (15x FY21E EPS). In light of environmental issues in China, the API market place is likely to present an enormous opportunity for established Indian API manufacturers. The global API market is close to US$ 160bn with China having a 30%+ market share, while India is at 8-10%. Solara is one of the leading API manufacturers in India having the capability to benefit from this opportunity due to a large API portfolio of 50+ molecules.

Currently, the stock is trading at 9.2/6.6x FY18/19 EV/EBITDA, at a ~35% discount to peers. Sustained revenue growth, improving debt/EBITDA ratio and likely reduction in interest cost due to better credit rating to drive multiples in coming years. We recently met the Solara management and the company is confident in achieving its guidance of 15/20% YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA for FY19. So far, Solara has delivered 26/35% YoY growth in revenue/EBITDA in 1HFY19. Despite witnessing momentary pricing tailwinds in key products, Solara is expected to expand profitability over FY18-21E by higher asset utilization, new product launches and cost control post merger.