Apollo Tyres Ltd. share price target

We met Apollo Tyres’ (APTY) management to understand the outlook for its key segments. Demand in India across most key segments remained healthy in 3Q, both in replacement and OEM.

About the stock: Apollo Tyres (ATL), is a leading tyre manufacturer, having operations in India & Europe. In India, ATL has substantial presence in TBR (~30% market share) and PCR space (~20% market share). India contributes ~67% of sales Q2FY26 Results: ATL reported healthy performance in Q2'26. Revenues on consolidated basis in Q2FY26 stood at 6,831 crores, up 6% YoY. EBITDA for the quarter stood at 1,021 crore with EBITDA margins at 14.9%, up ~170 bps QoQ. Consequent PAT for Q2FY26 came in at 258 crores, down 13% on YoY basis (include one-time exceptional charge on account of closure of Netherland plant)....

Apollo Tyres (APTY)’s Q2FY26 operating performance beat our estimate. Decline in RM basket drove strong margin improvement. Domestic replacement demand is expected to pick pace going ahead.

Apollo Tyres’ (APTY) 2QFY26 consolidated PAT (adjusted for one-offs) at INR3.9b was broadly in line with our estimate of INR3.7b.

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Apollo Tyres (APTY) Q1FY26 operating performance broadly was in-line. Standalone margin was better than our estimate (on lower RM basket) but was offset by weak margin performance in EU.

Apollo Tyres (APTY)’s 1QFY26 consolidated performance was in line with our estimates. However, while standalone performance was much ahead of our estimates, the European business margin was weaker than expected.

APTY’s 4QFY25 earnings, although in line with our estimates, have been below par compared with peers. Consolidated PAT (adjusted for one-offs) declined 42% YoY to INR2.7b (in line) due to a 420bp decline in EBITDA margin to 13% (in line).

Post underperforming domestic peers in FY25, Apollo Tyres (APTY) is aiming to outgrow peers going ahead. This will be led by corrective measures undertaken in the last couple of quarters with respect to addressing product gaps (adding SKUs), hiring key personnel etc.

APTY delivered a steady Q3, with revenue growth accelerating to 5% YoY, surpassing our estimate (by 3%), and driven by strong replacement demand; offset by flattish exports and weak OEM demand.

Apollo Tyres’ (APTY) Q3FY25 standalone EBITDAM was down 100bps QoQ at 11.1% on RM cost increase. EU EBITDA margin increased ~290bps QoQ despite RM price increase, led by higher mix of UHP tires and cost-reduction initiatives.

Apollo Tyres (APTY) posted a weak 3QFY25, with EBITDA margin down 460bp YoY to 13.7% (vs. est. 14.6%), driven by pressure in the standalone business, although Europe margins improved QoQ.

Apollo (ATL) missed EBITDA margin estimates by 160 bps due to higher-than-expected other expenses and employee cost as slow growth in topline and RM cost pressure on q-o-q basis was expected.

Apollo Tyres’ (APTY) standalone EBITDAM was down 90bps QoQ at 17.2% vs I-Sec estimate of 19.6%, with Q4 being a seasonally strong quarter in terms of demand and raw material basket cost was likely to be favourable. Margin miss was due to i) lower-thanexpected revenue, ii) lower GM and iii) higher other expenses (even after adjusting for EPR provisioning) due to elevated ad/marketing expenses to enhance brand presence in replacement market

Q4 results were soft, with flat revenues, and ~80bps QoQ margin decline to
~17.5% (adj. for ~110bps EPR provision).