NHPC Ltd. share price target

We have revised our estimate upward to factor in higher dividend income in 9MFY18 and accordingly upgrade our SOTP target price to Rs34.6 as we continue to expect a better project execution visibility for FY19E/20E. Maintain our BUY rating on attractive valuation....

NHPC's 3QFY18 underlying PAT grew 40% YoY to INR2.7b (ahead of our estimate of INR2b), led by higher incentive income, lower other expenses, and saving in interest cost. Underlying PAT is adjusted for (a) dividend income of INR2.4b from NHDC and (b) late payment surcharge of INR2.3b (gross tax). Generation was up 1% YoY to 3.4BU. PAF increased ~270bp YoY to 76.8%. Incentive income increased 59% YoY to INR1.1b. Interest cost saving of INR1.1b was achieved on repayment and refinancing of debt. Refinancing will generate annualized saving of INR340m, of which INR170m will be retained by NHPC

Regulated equity to increase 35 %, despite Subhanshiri project being on hold NHPC is targeting commercialization of the 330MW Kishanganga project from January 2018 and the 800MW Parbati-II project from December 2018. These two projects will increase AES in capacity by 19 % and attributing regulated equity (ARE) by 35 %. The 2,000MW Subhanshiri project remains on hold for now. Under-recoveries to decline on natural attrition and approval of five tariff orders O&M under recoveries have peaked, in our view. Wage bill growth will be muted due to high natural attrition, while existing manpower can manage new projects. We expect approval of capex for the five projects over the next few years, which can boost recurring PAT by INR1.5b. Higher dividend payout is boosting RoE; room for even higher payout/buyback Capital allocation has improved with a payout of INR113b in four years. Debtor days have come down after the implementation of the UDAY scheme for DISCOMs. Net worth (NW) in non-core business has dropped from 51 % to 36 %, and RoE has improved from 8.7 % to 9.9 % over FY13-17. Another 32 % of NW can be paid out, which is not deployed in core business

NHPC Ltd Q2FY18 results comment Revenue decreased by 15.24% to Rs. 1971.42 Cr in Q2FY18 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it fell by 16.51% when compared with Q2FY17.

For Q4FY17, PAT came in at Rs1.7bn which was significantly below our and consensus expectation of Rs3.9bn. This was primarily due to poor hydrology, leading to low rainfall and higher share of Secondary energy sale on YoY basis, resulting in low realisation....

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NHPC reported Q4FY17 results, which were below our estimates on all counts. Lower revenues and higher employee expenses (gratuity provisions) marred profitability Revenues came in at | 1362.4 crore, down 16.7% YoY, below our estimate of | 1786.7 crore. During FY17, NHPC commissioned two units of TLDP-IV project worth 80 MW, 50 MW wind power project Absolute EBITDA was at | 223 crore vs. estimate of | 907 crore. This...

Revenue grew by 2.18% to Rs. 1337.59 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Revenue grew by 2.18% to Rs. 1337.59 Cr in Q4FY17 when compared to the previous quarter.

Revenue fell by 44.79% to Rs. 1298.35 Cr in Q3FY17 when compared to the previous quarter. Also, it fell by 3.41% when compared with Q3FY16.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research NHPC reported its Q3FY17 results, which were in line with our estimates barring PAT, which was optically below estimates on account of a higher effective tax rate. The company also announced a buyback of 81.13 crore shares at a maximum price of | 32.25/share, which would lead to maximum outflow of | 2616 crore Revenues came in at | 1308 crore, down 10.6% YoY, a tad higher than I-direct estimate of | 1287 crore. Generation is expected to be...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Reported revenues came in at | 2403.4 crore vs. our estimate of | 2504.9 crore. Generation was up 1.9% YoY at 849 crore units on account of 2x44 MW TLDP IV added in Q2FY17. However, provisional tariff for units commissioned was lower (tariff allowed as per initial DPR). Hence, revenues from sale of power were at | 2351.7 crore vs. our estimate of | 2494.5 crore. In Q2FY17, the company put two units of TLDP IV project (88 MW) on commercial operation...