Nestle India Ltd. share price target

Nestle’s Q4FY25 revenue came at INR 55,039 Mn up 4.5% YoY (+15.2% QoQ), which was in-line with our estimates.
EBITDA stood at INR 13,890 Mn., up 2.9% YoY (+26.0% QoQ), beating our estimates by 5.4%, mainly driven by positive operating leverage. EBITDA margin contracted -39 bps YoY (+217 bps QoQ) to 25.2%.

We retain REDUCE on Nestlé India and Mar-26E TP of Rs2,300, on 60x P/E. We see demand stress persisting in a major part of the portfolio, with demand for milk products continuing to see impact of healthy price hikes (amid inflation) and competitive pressure in prepared dishes.

4QFY25 sales were above our estimates, but EBITDA was in line. NEST continues to manage margins despite high cocoa/coffee inflation

We remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. With a 10% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Nestle’s Q4FY25 operational performance was subdued with revenue growth of 4% YoY on a high base of 9% and ~100 bps margin contraction primarily due to inflationary pressures in key raw materials such as coffee, edible oil and palm oil.

Nestle India (Nestle) reported a 4.5% YoY growth in total revenue in 4QFY25, in line with our estimate. Domestic sales grew only 4.2% YoY (vs. 9% growth in the previous eight quarters) given the macroeconomic headwinds.

We remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. With a 10% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Nestlé sees strong growth potential in India, as its per capita packaged food consumption remains low. With 60 million people expected to join the middle- and high-income segments by 2030, rising affordability will boost demand.

The company's revenue stood at Rs. 47,797 Millions in Dec 24 quarter, showing a 3.9% increase compared to Rs. 46,004 Millions in the corresponding quarter of the previous year whereas there was a de growth of 6.4% on QoQ basis. In 9M FY25 basis, the company reported a revenue of Rs. 146,977 Millions a growth of 2.8% on annual basis.

NEST continues to manage profits amidst inflation in cocoa and coffee. Wheat and palm have also turned inflationary

Nestle India (Nestle) reported a 4% YoY revenue growth (est. 5%) in 3QFY25. Domestic sales grew 3% YoY, hurt by a slowdown in urban consumption and higher commodity prices.

Nestle’s Q2FY25 revenue growth was disappointing; it further de-accelerated to 1% YoY (vs 4% in Q1FY25) due to subdued consumer demand.

Nestlé's Q2FY25 performance fell below our expectations, primarily due to low consumer demand, the impact of a high base from H1FY24, and commodity headwinds.
Increased competition has led to higher advertising and promotion (A&P) expenses, which in turn compressed EBITDA margins.

We remain optimistic about the company's long-term prospects. With an 11% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

We downgrade Nestlé India to REDUCE from Add with a 14.3% cut in TP to Rs2,400 amid sustained topline pressures.

Nestle India (Nestle) reported weak revenue growth of 1% YoY (est. 6%) in 2QFY25. Last eight-quarter average revenue growth was 10%. Domestic sales grew 1% YoY, impacted by muted demand and higher commodity prices.

Nestle India’s (Nestle’s) Q2FY2025 numbers were weak, missing estimates on all fronts. Muted revenue growth at 1.3% y-o-y along with 144 bps y-o-y decline in OPM and lower other income lead to 9.1% y-o-y decline in adjusted PAT.