Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) reported a 12% EBITDA miss due to weak sales.

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) reported a 12% EBITDA beat, with strong growth in ROW, API and India while US sales were in line.

Valuation and Risks: We upgrade our revenues by 3.2% / 3.3% for FY21E/FY22E at Rs 52 bn / Rs 56 bn respectively due to upgrade in US, ROW and API business.

Domestic sales comprise 31% of FY20 revenues with higher contribution from specialty (54% of domestic sales). However, despite having an established set-up, growth (FY16-20 CAGR of ~5%) has lagged the industry growth curve. Alembic is consciously focusing on this aspect by overhauling distribution channels (defocusing on trade generics). Overall, we expect...

Domestic Formulations A Mixed Bag: The domestic formulations industry grew by 9.7% during the quarter and 9.8% for the year. The last 15-20 days of the March quarter were an issue due to COVID-19 and lockdown. Digital marketing, video calling had replaced the traditional mode of personalvisits and marketing.

5 July 2020 ALPM delivered a 14% CAGR in US sales to USD280m (43% of sales) on account of 58 launches over FY1620. Particularly, in FY20, ALPM garnered 49% YoY growth, led by new launches (22) and partly by regulatory concerns witnessed by peers. On a high FY20 base, we expect a 10% CAGR in US sales to USD340m over FY20 22. ALPM would ramp up filings across new dosages (Ophthalmology, General Injectables, Oncology Injectables, and Oral Solids). The considerable share of revenue from new capex / product development would reflect in overall growth in US sales 2HFY22 onward; thus, it forms a marginal portion of the business trajectory over FY2022. ALPM delivered 13% YoY growth in 4QFY20, reflecting the benefit of the pre-buying of medicines (in anticipation of shortage due to COVID-19) and partly of renewed strategy. While efforts to improve sales growth have been on track, performance could be dented on account of the COVID-19-led slowdown.

of capex is monetized from next fiscal. In the current disruptive environment, we reckon stocks with high certainty of earnings would command a disproportionate investorinterestandwidepremiumtosectoraverages.WebelieveAlembicPharma fitsthebillasitforaysintooncoandgeneralinjectablesandimprovestherevenue mixin3years.ExpectUSbusinesstoclock20%cagrexSartansovernext4yearsto touch ~US$450mn in FY24E. Domestic business should rebound and our recovery case is premised on strong close to Q4 FY20 as well as positive management commentary.WeassumemoderationingrossmarginthoughEBIDTAshouldpickup...

Consecutive beat we raise FY21/FY22 EPS by 11-17%