Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. share price target

Alembic Pharma’s (Alembic) Q1FY23 performance was below our estimates due to sharp fall in US sales, which declined 37.3% QoQ to US$47mn on high base in Q4FY22 owing to inventory restocking, lower offtake during the quarter and continuous price erosion in the base business. India business (ex-covid) grew ~20% YoY.

Q4 revenue growth at 11% YoY led by broad-based domestic uptick and 17% growth in the US; ROW declined 19% YoY

The company has invested ~ | 1800 crore in recent years in facilities geared mainly towards US formulations. As of Q3FY22, it has filed 220 ANDA and has 154 approvals with 104 launches in the US Q3FY22 Results: Alembic reported mixed numbers with traction in domestic...

Alembic Pharma (ALPM) delivered in-line operating performance for 3QFY22. The growth momentum in domestic formulation (DF) business was offset by weakness in exports and API segment on a YoY basis. Interestingly, the US sales have been largely stable for three quarters now. We have reduced our FY23E/FY24E earnings by ~4%/2% to factor in: a) a delay in injectable approvals, b) higher logistics cost, and c) better outlook in DF segment. We value ALPM at 18x 12M forward earnings to arrive at our TP of INR820, implying 8% potential upside. Maintain Neutral....

Q3 revenue dipped 3% YoY on a steep decline in US (-23%) and API (-8%) business, despite growth in India (+17%) and ROW (+13%)