Apcotex Industries Ltd. share price forecast

We roll forward our estimates and multiple, valuing the company at 20x (30% discount to TTM PE of 28x) FY24E earnings to arrive at a revised TP to Rs 550/share (Rs 435 earlier).

We maintain BUY recommendation with the TP to Rs 435/share valuing it at FY24E EPS. The key downside risk to our estimates Uncertainties caused by the sudden resurgence of COVID cases, while an upside risk to our TP is a favourable ADD outcome.

This results in a rating upgrade to BUY (HOLD earlier) and revision in TP to Rs 410 (Rs 315 earlier) as we roll forward our estimates and multiple to FY24E EPS.

We would await for a better entry point and thus downgrade the stock to HOLD (previously BUY) while valuing the stock at 20x FY23E EPS to arrive at a TP of Rs 315/share.

we revise our estimates and continue to maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs. 325 (Previous TP Rs. 204) valuing it at 20x of FY23E EPS. The TP implies an upside potential of 10% from CMP.

we expect healthy volume and price growth in upcoming quarters, we revise our estimates and continue to maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs. 204 (Previous TP Rs. 174)valuing it at 19x of FY23E EPS.

As mentioned in our earlier quarterly updates, we continue to believe that demand could recover notably witnessed from Q3FY21. Factoring in the positive outlook on growth recovery in FY21 we revise our estimates upwards leading to a rating revision to BUY (earlier HOLD) and TP change to Rs. 174

For Q4FY20, Apcotex Industries delivered an in-line performance versus our estimates on Revenues/PAT front. Revenues reported a 25% de-growth impacted by 2 week lockdown that affected performance of its Latex and NBR products.

Apcotex registered a revenue decline of 24% YoY to | 116 crore, largely impacted by sluggish growth from NBR segment due to slowdown in the auto sector along with a fall in realisation due to passing on of benefit of lower RMAT prices. Further, fall in tyre latex along with carpet latex revenue also weighed on the overall performance. The company was struggling to maintain its historic gross margins of 30-32% in the last few quarters due to increase in NBR imports from Europe at lower prices leading the company to sell NBR at losses or breakeven level in the last few quarters. This was...

In our midcap universe of 11 companies, we expect Tata Chemical, VA Tech Wabag, Emmbi Industries and Kanpur Plastipack to be the most impacted stocks given that all these have revenue contribution in excess of 30-35% from the said geographies. We have envisaged the impact of Coronavirus (Covid-19) on our midcap coverage universe based on the revenue contribution from both the US as...

Apcotex for Q2FY20 posted revenues of Rs. 124Cr (24% vs our estimate, 23% YoY). Despite reporting high single digit volume growth in Q2, topline was impacted owing to lower realization (sharp fall in petrochemical prices) and slow down in Automobile industry.

Acpotex for Q1FY20 posted revenues of Rs. 146Cr The dip in topline is despite good volume growth across board. Lower realization and slow down in domestic Auto & Construction industries also impacted revenue growth.

New capex to provide long term visibility The management has already approved capex of around | 60 crore for nitrile latex while it has been de-bottlenecking NBR capacity by 5000-6000 MT. We expect NBR's incremental capacity to drive revenues in FY21. Nitrile latex capacity is expected to come on board within 18-24 months post environmental approval. Hence, this bodes well for growth visibility over FY23-24. We expect NBR volumes from auto to remain sluggish at least in the near term. However, the volume loss in auto segment can be recouped...

The company has been debottlenecking its Valia plant, which will expand NBR capacity to 22000 MTPA from 16000 MTPA. Given the realisation of NBR remains at | 150-180/kg, expansion in capacity may improve topline by | 100 crore at optimum utilisation. However, NBR is largely used in the automotive industry. The present slowdown in the auto sector can curtail the growth outlook, to some extent, in the short-term. Apart from this, the company entered manufacture of nitrile latex, which has a large market globally. Since Apcotex is the sole manufacturer in the domestic market,...

AIL's raw materials are crude linked derivates that have significantly spiked over the last three to six months. This, coupled with a slowdown in rubber and automotive segment led to a weak operating performance for the quarter. AIL also continued to witness a demand revival across all industries in the domestic market (except auto/rubber) like paper/paper board, construction, speciality, footwear, rice rolls, etc. Continued efforts to address quality related issues have helped maintain margins. For Q3FY19, AIL witnessed a continued uptick in exports. For full year FY19E,...

Leading player in Emulsion Polymer segment a niche product segment; NBR Market a huge opportunity, High Entry Barriers, New Product Foray (X-NBR) prime growth driver; We value Apcotex Industries at 22.5x FY20E EPS given the sustainable revenue and profit growth and arrive at target price of Rs. 664

Apcotex Industries (AIL) reported strong Q2FY19 results but witnessed deterioration on the balance sheet front Revenues came in at | 160.1 crore, up 24.1% YoY. Gross margins declined 140 bps YoY. However, employee expenses remained flat during the quarter. Accordingly, EBITDA margins came in at 12.3% vs. 11.7% YoY. Absolute EBITDA came at | 19.6 crore, up 29.9% YoY AIL reported other expenses of | 0.37 crore during the quarter. Thus, PAT grew 19.1% YoY to | 10.1 crore...

On a YoY basis, revenues came in at | 150 crore, up 24.9% YoY. EBITDA came in at | 17.8 crore, up 106% YoY. This was due to 450 bps increase in gross margins in the quarter. EBITDA margins came in at 11.9% vs. 7.2% YoY. PAT came in at | 11.2 crore, up 114% YoY On a sequential basis, revenues grew 7.8% YoY but absolute EBITDA declined 21.7% QoQ. Decline in margins was due to higher input prices. Accordingly, PAT also declined 6.8% QoQ Continued domestic performance; strong exports...

Apcotex Industries (AIL) reported strong Q4FY18 results. AIL reported a strong topline, EBITDA and PAT growth for the quarter Revenues came in | 139.2 crore, up 59.9% YoY EBITDA came at | 22.8 crore, up 206.4% YoY. This was due to a 782...

Apcotex Industries (APCOTEX) has reported a robust performance on all fronts. Revenue jumped by 60% yoy to Rs1,392mn (Emkay Est: Rs1,241mn), driven by higher exports, recovery in Latex business and better realizations from NBR segment. EBITDA margin expanded by 774bps yoy to 16.4% (Emkay Est: 10%) due to double-digit margin in NBR and Latex, better inventory management and enhanced operating leverage....