Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd. share price target

MRPL reported its Q1FY18 numbers that were below our estimates on the profitability front. Revenues declined 20% QoQ to | 14494.6 crore and were largely in line with our estimate of | 14257.2 crore. Crude throughput was at 4 MMT vs. our estimate of 3.9 MMT Reported GRMs in Q1FY18 were at US$4.7/bbl, below our estimate of US$5.2/bbl mainly due to higher than estimated inventory loss of US$2.3/bbl (our estimate: US$1.7/bbl) However, operational GRMs were at US$7.1/bbl above our estimate of US$6.9/bbl...

The company reported one-time exceptional income of | 1597.3 crore arising out of exchange rate variation gains on settlement of overdue trade payables. Subsequently, PAT during the quarter...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research MRPL reported its Q3FY17 numbers that were below our estimates. MRPL reported 12.5% QoQ increase in revenue to | 15741.1 crore vs. | 13990.1 crore in Q2FY17 (our estimate: | 16619.3 crore) EBITDA increased 42.2% QoQ to | 1147.6 crore, which was below our estimate of | 1307.5 crore. GRMs during the quarter came in at US$7.4/bbl vs. US$4.7/bbl in Q2FY17. However, they came in below our estimates of US$9.2/bbl. Inventory gains came in at US$2.3/bbl in...

EBITDA declined 35.7% QoQ to | 785.5 crore, which was below our estimate of | 1015 crore. The decline in EBITDA mainly came on account of lower-than-expected GRMs at | 4.7/bbl in Q2FY17 vs. $10/bbl in Q1FY17 (our estimate: | 5.2/bbl). However, adjusted for inventory losses, GRMs were in line with our estimates PAT during the quarter declined 42.3% QoQ to | 415.9 crore, below our estimate of | 707.9 crore. Lower than estimated other income of | 92.5 vs. estimated | 202 crore contributed to the decline in PAT...

Higher complexity on commissioning of Phase III project will lead to an increase in distillate yield from ~76.5% to ~80.1%, better capability to handle heavier & sourer crude and production of higher margin value added products. Core GRMs for the company have strengthened with the flow of products like polypropylene and pet coke from phase III secondary units and from the polypropylene unit. The polypropylene unit will continue to contribute to the improvement in GRMs, going forward. We have estimated GRMs of US$6.6/bbl, US$6.7/bbl for FY18E & FY19E,...

MRPL reported its Q1FY17 numbers, which were above our estimates. The topline increased 24.7% QoQ to | 11590.7 crore (our estimate: | 9017.8 crore) mainly due to a change in accounting standards to IND-AS. EBITDA declined 20.6% QoQ to | 1221.2 crore and came in above our estimate of | 677.2 crore. Improvement in GRMs to $10/bbl in Q1FY17 from $8.2/bbl in Q4FY16 and above our estimate of $7.3/bbl in Q1FY17 mainly led to higher than estimated EBITDA. However, a decline in crude oil throughput by 19% due to water shortage led to lower volume of 3.7 MMTPA in Q1FY17 against 4.5 MMTPA in Q4FY16, which led to decline in the EBITDA QoQ. PAT during the quarter declined 46.8% QoQ to | 720.3 crore, above our estimate of | 355.8 crore. QoQ tax expense was higher at 36.6% in Q1FY17 vs. 1.8% QoQ, contributing to the decline in PAT QoQ.

Valuation: MRPL has lower policy leverage and lower gearing on the balance sheet among PSU refineries. With the improvement in operational performance, we expect the standalone company to deliver profits, thus creating value for shareholders in coming years. The performance of ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals (OMPL) remains crucial in determining the overall company performance. For FY16, OMPL posted revenue of | 4187.6 crore and a loss of | 875.4 crore. However, the management has indicated that its performance would improve in the coming years. A scheme of amalgamation of MRPL with OMPL has been proposed for approval of various regulatory authorities. We value the stock at 6x FY18E EV/EBITDA multiple and OMPL at | 7.6/share to arrive at a target price of | 105.

 

PAT during the quarter increased 3.5x QoQ to | 1353.4 crore against a profit of | 298.4 crore in Q3FY16 (I-direct estimate: profit of | 781.5 crore), due to higher-than-expected GRMs...

MRPL reported its Q2FY16 numbers, which were below our estimates. The topline declined 13.7% QoQ to | 8818.7 crore (our estimate: | 7708.8 crore), due to decline in the crude oil prices QoQ....

MRPL reported EBITDA of INR6.1b was above est. led by GRM of USD4.8/bbl (est 3.5) and throughput at 3.8mmt (est. 3.5mmt, flat YoY and +10.4% QoQ). With expanded and upgraded capacity now commissioned, we model higher GRM at...

Reported exports revenue at Rs 3361 cr against the Rs 6079 cr