Mangalore Refinery And Petrochemicals Ltd. share price target

14 November 2018 2QFY19 due to lower-than-expected GRM. The company booked a forex loss of INR4.0b v/s a loss of INR670m in 2QFY18 and INR3.9b in 1QFY19. MRPL booked a net exceptional item of INR251m on account of (a) estimated cost for purchase of Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) from the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), (b) employee benefit expense and (c) income tax credit. It reported a loss of v/s benchmark Singapore GRM of USD6.1/bbl, USD5.33/bbl in 2QFY18, and USD4.79/bbl in 1QFY19. There was a shutdown of 11 days in the delayed coking unit (DCU) and the polypropylene plant, which is likely to have affected performance. (+11 YoY, +2% QoQ), implying 104% utilization in the quarter (v/s 3.53mmt in 2QFY18 and 3.85mmt in 1QFY19).

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research MRPL reported its Q1FY19 numbers, which were below our estimates on the profitability front. Revenues declined 11.6% QoQ to | 16582.7 crore and came in below our estimate of | 19465.2 crore. Crude throughput was at 3.9 MMT in Q1FY19 vs. 4.3 MMT in Q4Y18 and came in slightly above our estimate of 3.7 MMT Reported GRMs during the quarter came in at US$8.3/bbl below our estimate of US$8.8/bbl. Reported GRMs include inventory gains of...

Despite the strong utilization of 88% mentioned in OMPL's annual report, the actual gross margin was INR7.8b. EBITDA was INR2.1b, not even sufficient to fund the interest cost of INR4.7b. Placement cost of products combined with premium for rich/aromatic naphtha results in poor gross margin. We expect gross margin to expand to INR9.4b in FY20

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Oil Refining and Marketing Companies Volatile operational factors create uncertainty Brent crude oil prices witnessed an upward trajectory in the past two quarters and are currently at high levels of US$77/bbl. More recently, crude oil prices have seen sharp fluctuations in the range of US$70-80/bbl. In addition, depreciation of the rupee has also been a concern. The consequent high petrol and diesel prices resulting in uncertainty over oil marketing...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research MRPL reported its Q4FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on the revenue front with higher-than-expected crude throughput. Revenues increased 7.7% QoQ to | 18753.1 crore and came in largely above our estimate of | 17186.9 crore. Crude throughput was at 4.3 MMT in Q4FY18 vs. 4.5 MMT in Q3FY18 and came in above our estimate of 4 MMT Reported GRMs during the quarter came in at US$7.9/bbl, below our...

MRPL's 4QFY18 EBITDA stood at INR10.4b (-33% YoY, -40% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR7.5b, led by higher-than-expected inventory gains and throughput. The company booked a forex loss of INR1.5b v/s forex gain of INR1.9b in 3QFY18 and INR3b in 4QFY17. PBT stood at INR8.5b (est. of INR5.2b; -35% YoY, -43% QoQ), further boosted by higher other income of INR771m (est. of INR593m; +106% YoY, +282% QoQ). Effective tax rate was 36% v/s 34% in 3QFY18 and 33% in 4QFY17. PAT was INR5.4b (-38% YoY, -44% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR3.5b.

MRPL reported its Q3FY18 numbers, which were above our estimates on the profitability front mainly on account of high inventory gains. Revenues increased 40.3% QoQ to | 17419.8 crore and came largely in line with our estimate. Crude throughput was at...

MRPL's 3QFY18 EBITDA was INR17.5b (+52% YoY, +93% QoQ), significantly above our estimate of INR11.5b, led by higher than expected inventory gains and throughput. The company booked a forex gain of INR1.9b v/s forex loss of INR670m in 2QFY18 and INR1.6b in 3QFY17. Interest cost was INR1.2b (-17% YoY, +10% QoQ; our estimate: INR1.3b), depreciation wasINR1.7b (+1% YoY, +1% QoQ; our estimate: INR1.9b) and other income was INR202m (-68% YoY, -76% QoQ; our estimate: INR573m). Effective tax rate was 34% v/s31% in 2QFY18 and 37% in 3QFY17. PAT was INR9.7b (+72% YoY, 103%QoQ), significantly beating our estimate of INR5.9b

MRPL reported its Q2FY18 numbers, which were below our estimates mainly on account of a lower than expected operational performance. Revenues declined 14.3% QoQ to | 12416.2 crore and came in below our estimate of | 14913.4 crore. The crude throughput...

during the quarter. Also, secondary units were not operational during most of the quarter due to shutdown. While interest cost came in at INR1.1b (est. of INR1.3b; -6% YoY, -2% QoQ), depreciation stood at INR1.7b (est. of INR1.9b; +1% YoY, +4% QoQ). Other income of INR828m (-11% YoY, +305% QoQ) was higher than our estimate of INR588m, led by benefits from government grants. Effective tax rate stood at 31% v/s 33% in 1QFY18 and 31% in 2QFY17. Adj. PAT of INR4.9b (+19% YoY, +112% QoQ) was significantly below our estimate of INR7.3b....