Minda Corporation Ltd. share price target

Given the recent run-up in Minda Corps stock price, we are revising our rating from BUY to HOLD and value the company at 16x FY23E EPS to arrive at a target price of Rs 170.

Robust order wins (~| 5,000 crore lifetime orders in past 18 months; replacement + new business) imparts healthy revenue visibility in medium to long term. We build 25.4% (FY21-23E) consolidated sales CAGR Has orders from incumbent and new age EV OEMs including Ola Electric FY23E margins, RoCE seen at 12.2%, 16.8%. Acquisition of remaining 49% stake in JV with Stoneridge (for | 161 crore i.e. <6x FY21 EV/EBITDA) to be...

We recommend a BUY on the stock.

We have maintained our multiple at 15x FY23E to arrive at a target price of Rs 148 and retain BUY, resulting in an upside of 13%.

We estimate Revenue and APAT to grow at a CAGR of 15% and 28% respectively with FY20-23E. We have given a higher multiple for the company at 15x FY23E to arrive at a target price of Rs133 and retain BUY, resulting in an upside of 19%.

Minda Corp's (MDA) Q4FY21 topline increased 7% QoQ to Rs 7.9bn.

Ongoing premiumisation is also expected to lead to structural improvement in margin trajectory at MCL down the line. Once near-term squeeze on gross margins brought about by sharp increase in prices of raw materials subsides, the company is seen moving to a higher margin plane on the back of increased operational efficiencies, cost controls and removal of profitability overhang due to hive-off of Minda KTSN (the management expects the restructuring to add ~2% to margins and ~5% to RoCE in time)....

We have revised the revenue/EBIDTA/PAT upwards for both FY22 & FY23 and value the company at 12x FY23E to arrive at a target price of Rs 121 and retain BUY.

With a history of capital efficient operations, net debt free B/S (September 2020) and presence across new model launches like Mahindra Thar & Bajaj Chetak, we believe the risk-reward is favourable at MCL. Hence, we assign a BUY rating. We value it at | 105 i.e. 15x P/E on FY22E-23E average EPS of | 7.0. We are enthused by MCL's intent to clock ~12% margins & ~20%+ RoIC in future and would closely monitor its forward journey, consistency in performance for any further upgrades in our fair value calculation. Trades at inexpensive valuations i.e....