Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

Q1FY17 Results: Revenues grew 12% (vol. growth of 2% due to production disruptions), with impressive realization growth of 10% YoY (2% QoQ). Domestic/Export volumes were at 5%/(27%) respectively. Pricing was driven by a favourable mix - higher share of UVs such as Brezza and S-Cross) and a 25% rise in export prices (currency movements). Rising commodity prices and Yen appreciation resulted in gross margins contracting 188bps/45bps QoQ/YoY. This along with higher royalty outgo impacted margins (fell 136bps to 14.8%). Royalty rose 33% to Rs9.6bn, as amounts were translated at a rate of 0.65 JPY/INR, as compared to the average quarterly market rate of ~0.62. Profitability was boosted by other income (doubled to Rs4.8bn ) and depreciation method change (saved Rs833 mn) with reported PAT up 21% (Adjusted PAT rose 16% to...

Maruti Suzuki’s (MSIL) 1QFY17 top-line at Rs 149bn (+12% YoY) met estimates, driven by net ASP improvement to Rs 431k. Gross margins slipped 100bps YoY owing to adverse forex impact. EBITDA margin contraction (-195bps YoY) to 14.8% was impacted by negative operating leverage. APAT came in stronger at Rs 14.9bn (+23% YoY, +1% QoQ) led by higher other income and lower depreciation (change in accounting method). With flat 1Q rural sales, the management now has its hoped pinned on a normal monsoon. Further impetus from the 7th Pay Commission could drive MSIL’s volume growth (12% CAGR over FY16-18E vs. 5% over FY13-15). Also, the net Yen exposure has come down, with Yen-denominated Baleno exports improving, thus reducing volatility in profits. We revise earnings ~4-8% for FY17-18E to factor in higher other income (adoption of Ind AS).HDFC Securities Maintain BUY with a revised TP of Rs 4,912 based on 20x FY18E EPS

Trendlyne has 26 reports on MARUTI updated in the last year from 8 brokers with an average target of Rs 4863.1. Brokers have a rating for MARUTI with 2 downgrades,7 price downgrades,1 upgrade,4 price upgrades in past 6 months and 11 price upgrades in past 1 Year.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) reported its Q1FY17 numbers, which were below our estimates on the topline and margin front. Revenues at | 14,927 crore, up 11.6% YoY, came in below our estimate of | 15,521 crore. Revenues came in below our estimates mainly on account of lower than estimated ASPs (1.5% QoQ growth against our estimate of 4.8%) . Reported EBITDA margins came in at 14.8%, down 146 bps YoY, marginally below our estimates of 14.9%. EBITDA margins came in lower QoQ because material cost to net sales was higher by 170 bps mainly on account of increased raw material prices & adverse foreign exchange movement.ICICI Securities Limited ascribe a multiple of 21x to its FY18E EPS of | 243 and have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of | 5095.

Trendlyne has 26 reports on MARUTI updated in the last year from 8 brokers with an average target of Rs 4863.1. Brokers have a rating for MARUTI with 2 downgrades,7 price downgrades,1 upgrade,4 price upgrades in past 6 months and 11 price upgrades in past 1 Year.

Revenue up 11%, but marginally below expected, as realisations missed estimates by 1% 8 Gross margins fell 1.9% qoq led by adverse  currency and higher RM prices • EBITDA margin at 14.8% was down 50bps qoq; in line with estimates   9 PAT at Rs 14.8bn was 33% ahead of estimates on higher other?income recognition changes under the new Ind?AS accounting norms Key highlights: Largely in line quarter with the company facing margin pressures due to adverse currency and lower production volumes. The stock has seen a stupendous run of 38% since its lows in March 2016. Relooking at our estimates, we believe it lacks near?term triggers – constrained capacity would mean volume growth of 10% in FY17. With little scope of surprise Phillip Capital downgrade their stance to NEUTRAL from BUY. They marginally tweak our estimates (FY18 EPS up 3%) and revise our target price to Rs 4,600 (Rs 4,500 earlier).

Trendlyne has 26 reports on MARUTI updated in the last year from 8 brokers with an average target of Rs 4863.1. Brokers have a rating for MARUTI with 2 downgrades,7 price downgrades,1 upgrade,4 price upgrades in past 6 months and 11 price upgrades in past 1 Year.

Background: Maruti is a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor. Maruti pays ~6.4% on sales as royalty to parent. Maruti is India's largest passenger car company, which primarily sells compact hatchbacks (75% of volumes), Utility vehicles and sedans. Its key models are Alto, Wagon R, Swift and Dzire, Baleno and Brezza. With its early-mover advantage in the Indian market, Maruti is a dominant player in the domestic passenger car market with a ~ 46.8% market share. Maruti has over 1200...

Post 1QFY17 results, while broadly retaining our volume/ EBIDTA estimate, we have increased our EPS estimate by 5.6% & 8.2% for FY17E & FY18E, respectively on aligning other income and depreciation with 1QFY17 financials. Considering concerns like capacity constraint, sluggish rural sales, likely rise in commodity prices, rise in competition, and limited benefit from foreign currency we believe that current valuation...

Mix improvement continues, but Fx hurts margins: Volumes grew ~2% YoY (-3% QoQ), restricted by fire at its vendors plant. Realizations improved 1% QoQ (+9.3% YoY) driven by better export mix, domestic mix and lower discounts. Net sales grew ~12% YoY (-2% QoQ) to ~INR149.3b (v/s est ~INR148.4b). EBITDA grew 2% YoY (-6% QoQ) to ~INR22.2b (v/s est INR21.9b). EBITDA margins declined ~140bp YoY (-60bp QoQ) to 14.8% (v/s est 14.8%), impacted by adverse Fx. However, higher other income (IndAS led) and lower depreciation (due to increase in estimate for useful life of tools & dies) drove PAT growth to ~23% YoY to ~INR14.9b (v/s est ~INR12.3b).Motilal Oswal Maintain Buy with a target price of INR5,510.

Trendlyne has 26 reports on MARUTI updated in the last year from 8 brokers with an average target of Rs 4863.1. Brokers have a rating for MARUTI with 2 downgrades,7 price downgrades,1 upgrade,4 price upgrades in past 6 months and 11 price upgrades in past 1 Year.

Maruti Suzukis (MSIL) 4QFY16 topline at Rs 153bn ( 12% YoY) was driven by net ASP improvement to Rs 414k. Gross margin improved (250bps QoQ) with a richer product mix, lower discounts and higher fixed cost absorption with normalisation of factory stock levels. However, EBITDA margin expansion ( 100bps QoQ) to 15.4% was moderate, impacted by higher staff/other expenses.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) reported its Q4FY16 numbers, which were above our estimates on the topline and margin front. Revenues came...

Capacity constraints may limit volume growth in FY 17 Currently the demand for passenger vehicles has been picking up but at a low rate. MSIL has posted a 5.1% domestic growth in Q4 FY16. With its recent launches of...