Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

We re-iterate BUY as i) management expects to sustain market share and grow inline / ahead of the market in FY20 ii) Maruti remains well positioned to benefit from the transition to BSVI given its higher share of petrol variants. MSIL's share of diesel now stands at just 23% (lower than the industry mix). The synergies from the collaboration with Toyota will be felt over the medium term. Marutis 4Q PAT at Rs.18bn (-5% YoY) was inline with street estimates. We re-iterate our BUY on the stock. The stock trades at 24/21x FY20/21E EPS. Our earnings estimates are unchanged.

MSIL Q4FY19 results were below our and consensus estimates at operating level. EBITDA margin declined to 10.5% vs our and consensus estimates of 11.7% and 12.5% respectively. Margins were majorly impacted on account of higher commodity prices, foreign exchange fluctuations and higher sales promotion. Adj. PAT for the quarter stood at Rs17.9bn above our and consensus estimates of Rs16bn and Rs17.6bn respectively mainly on account of higher other income. We cut our FY20E EBITDA/EPS estimates by 7%/8% respectively and introduce FY21 estimates. We have built in revenue/earnings CAGR of 10%/12% over FY19-21E with ROE of ~17% and average free...

aided by higher other income and lower tax: Maruti Suzuki India Limited's (MSIL) Q4FY2019 results are weaker than our as well as consensus estimates on the operating front as the company posted lower-than-expected margins. The top line at Rs. 21,459 crore was almost flat (up 1.4% y-o-y for the quarter) primarily driven by a 1% increase in realisation on account of price hikes taken by...

aided by higher other income and lower tax: Maruti Suzuki India Limited's (MSIL) Q4FY2019 results are weaker than our as well as consensus estimates on the operating front as the company posted lower-than-expected margins. The top line at Rs. 21,459 crore was almost flat (up 1.4% y-o-y for the quarter) primarily driven by a 1% increase in realisation on account of price hikes taken by...

Market leadership maintained, foremost in BS-VI model launch FY19 was a difficult year for the domestic automobile space with growth challenging, particularly in H2FY19. Demand sentiments were soured by a concurrent increase in fuel, insurance as well as finance costs during the seasonally important Dussehra-Diwali period. For FY19, total domestic sales growth in the automobile space were at 5.2% YoY wherein PV volumes were at 33.8 lakh units, up 2.7% YoY. MSIL in FY19 clocked domestic volumes of 17.3 lakh units, up 5.3% YoY and maintained its market leadership, ending...

MSIL witnessed a -0.7% growth in volumes in Q4 and 5.5% growth in FY 2019. This has been a result of several macro headwinds such as rising fuel prices and interest rates, dampening sentiments, intensifying competition and subdued urban demand. Exports business also saw a negative growth...

Maruti Suzuki's (MSIL) Q4FY19 revenue grew a muted 1.4% YoY to Rs 214.6bn. EBITDA fell 25% YoY to Rs 22.6bn and adj. PAT declined 13% to Rs 17.9bn. Despite a subdued near-term PV outlook, We expect MSIL to maintain its above-industry performance. Benefits of operating leverage at the Gujarat plant, normalised inventory and lower discounts can help margins recover from H2FY19 lows. We pare FY20/FY21 EPS estimates by 3.7%/2.3% to build in...

25 April 2019 Revenues grew 1.4% YoY to INR214.6b (v/s est. of INR207.5b), led by 2.1% increase in realizations to INR468.1k (v/s est. of INR452.6k); but, volumes declined 0.7%. EBITDA margins at 10.5% (v/s est. of 12.1%, +70bp QoQ, -370bp YoY) were impacted by (a) inventory de-stocking, (b) fixed cost/depreciation at Gujarats new line & engine plant, (c) forex, and (d) conversion cost inflation. These headwinds were more than offset by lower discounts, price increases and lower staff costs.

EBITDA margin expanded 70bps qoq to 10.5%, below our estimate of 13%, as the benefits of price increases, discounts, and scale were mostly offset by higher costs in the Gujarat plant, inventory adjustments, and adverse forex movement. Despite the increase in competitive intensity, management expects to outpace industry...

At the Fag-End of Weak Business Cycle -Maintain BUY: During Q4FY19, MSIL sales grew by 1.4% YoY to Rs214.6bn (below ourestimates Rs235 bn). Its EBITDA margins declined by 370bps to 10.5% (belowour estimates of 12.5%).