Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

MSIL Q1FY20 results were below our and in-line with consensus estimates at operating level. EBITDA margin declined to 10.4% vs our and consensus estimates of 11.8% and 10.4% respectively. Margins were majorly impacted due to higher discounts and sales promotion expenses. Adj. PAT for the quarter stood at Rs14.3bn below our estimates of Rs16.3bn; mainly on account of higher depreciation and lower other income. We cut our volume estimates for FY20/FY21 by 13%/15% factoring the slower growth for PV industry. We expect that weaker consumer sentiment, higher inventory and tight liquidity conditions would continue to impact MSIL. We cut our revenue/earnings...

Volume to stay under pressure, grow at 1.3% CAGR (FY19-21E) MSIL has been the industry leader in the domestic PV space with market share on a consistent basis at > 50%. The industry, however, in last nine to 12 months has been seeing muted demand prospects amid a rise in cost of ownership of vehicles, increasing penetration of shared mobility and elevated fuel prices. With retail inventory still high at ~30 days and lower conversion at dealerships, we expect the industry to see demand pressure in the near term. Building in revival of demand around the festive season...

Best play on the Indian PV market post recovery Better than expected margins despite demand weakness Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL)'s Q1FY20 numbers came in line with our expectations despite volumes reflecting a negative growth of 18% yoy and 12% qoq. Margins came in at 10.4% lower by 450 bps yoy on higher inventory and demand weakness. However, they were a tad better than our expectations on better product mix, cost control and flattish average discount growth. Revenues de-grew by 14% yoy and 9.7% qoq despite higher volume decline, as they were supported by 5% and 3% growth in realisations. EBITDA plunged by 39% yoy and 10% qoq as RM...

For the quarter ended June 2019, Maruti Suzuki registered 12% fall in sales to Rs 1719.80 crore. OPM fell 450 basis points to 10.4% which saw OP fall 39% to Rs 2047.80 crore. Other income grew 208% to Rs 836.40 crore and interest cost jumped 164% to Rs 54.70 crore. As depreciation grew 28% to Rs 918.60 crore, PBT fell 34% to Rs 1910.90 crore....

During Q1FY20, MSIL sales declined by 12.2% YoY to Rs197.2bn (above our estimates Rs188.3 bn). Its EBITDA margins declined by 454bps to 10.4% (below our estimates of 10.6%). PAT declined by 27.3% YoY to Rs 14.3bn (below our estimates of Rs15.3bn).

In-line EBIT margin: Net realization increased 7% YoY (+4.6% QoQ) to ~INR489.8k (our estimate: ~INR475k). Net sales were down ~12% YoY (-8% QoQ) to ~INR197.2b (our estimate: ~INR191.3b) due to ~18% YoY volume decline. EBIT margin shrank 5pp YoY (-110bp QoQ) to 5.7% (our estimate: 5.9%) owing to higher depreciation, although the impact of operating deleverage was offset by lower RM cost and favorable FX. Higher other...

Maruti Suzuki India Limited's (MSIL) posted in line results for Q1FY2020. However, management has stated that recovery in domestic PV demand is unlikely due to depressed consumer sentiment and financing crunch. Moreover, cost pressures on account of regulations, operating deleverage due to muted volumes and higher discounting because of increased competition would continue to drag margins. Earnings growth is expected to remain muted over the remainder of FY2020. We have been highlighting risk of earnings downgrade in our earlier note (dated...

Maruti Suzuki's 1QFY20 results were operationally in-line with margins came Change in Estimates | Target | Reco in at 10.4%. However, higher other income led to a beat in PAT at Rs14.4bn (PLe: Rs12bn). While we expect demand headwinds to continue to impact...

Maruti's 1QFY20 results were broadly in line with our estimates, as lowerthan-expected EBIDTA margin at 10.4% (vs estimate of 11%) was offset by an increase in ASP. While MSIL's net profit fell by 27% YoY in 1QFY20, but we still retain our faith in the company, given its dealership strength and strong product portfolio. We expect reduction in interest rate, pick-up in rural volume, and festive season to revive demand from 2HFY20. The company also bring down dealer inventory to comfortable four weeks. We lower our EPS estimate by 3/4% for FY20E/21E, factoring in slower-thanexpected ramp up in volume. We forecast a 10% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E, driven by a 3% volume growth and 110bps margin expansion. Given the...

Maruti Suzuki Profits Meets Estimates, Margin Contracts For the quarter ended March 2019, Maruti Suzuki registered 1% rise in sales to Rs 21459.4 crore. OPM fell 250 basis points to 10.5% which saw OP fall 18% to Rs 2263.40 crore. Other income grew 46% to Rs 867.7 crore and interest cost fell 68% to Rs 8.80 crore. As depreciation grew 15% to Rs 810.20 crore, PBT fell 12% to Rs 2312.10 crore. Provision for tax...