Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. share price target

MSIL Q1FY21 results were below our and consensus estimates at operating and PAT level. EBITDA loss came at Rs8.63bn vs our estimated loss of Rs633mn. Reported loss was Rs2.5bn vs our estimated loss of Rs573mn. We believe lockdown and risk aversion has significantly impacted footfalls at dealerships. We expect demand for 4W to remain muted even post lockdown and lower replacement demand. We expect 4W industry to decline ~15-18% in FY21 and more demand for pre-owned cars, subscription based models and small cars. We cut our FY21 volume/revenue estimates by 7%/12% respectively and expect recovery in FY22 with 11%/15% increase in volume/revenue. We change our rating to REDUCE (earlier...

Maruti Suzuki Q1FY21 results: reported Net loss of Rs.266.90 crore; Production challenges persist; misses Street estimates Consolidated sales for the period was down by 79% to Rs 4110.60 crore and the OP was a loss...

30 July 2020 MSILs 1QFY21 revenues declined 79% to ~INR41b; EBITDA/PAT loss was reported at ~INR8.6b/INR2.5b. MSILs domestic PV market share declined sharply by 430bp YoY (700bp While MSILs 1QFY21 performance was insignificant as normal operations were there only for two weeks in 1Q, commentary on demand recovery is positive. However, commentary on demand recovery is positive. Management has not given any demand outlook as the situation in dynamic and operating environment is changing frequently. We upgrad our FY21/FY22E EPS by ~13%/5% to factor in for cost cutting initiatives, higher other income and lower depreciation. Maintain QoQ) to 47.3% in 1QFY21 due to supply side challenges. Net realization saw steep increase of 9.3% QoQ (+13.2% YoY) to ~INR536k (v/s est. ~INR471k) as non-vehicular revenue contribution was very high, though vehicle ASP were stable. Gross margin contracted ~120bp QoQ (140bp YoY) due to sharp decline in inventory levels (impact of INR1.1b or 3.

Margin trajectory is seen improving, going forward. Courtesy its early switchover to BS-VI norms and demonstrated acceptance for those products, pricing environment is largely stable for the company. The management said discounting levels are lower QoQ thus far, and thus would support gross margins. Also, enhanced focus on cost controls (material and...

performance on all fronts during 2QFY20. The reported profit jumped by 21% YoY to Rs2,550mn levels and could be considered as a one-off. The management claims demand recovery, but looks on account of a) lower effective tax rate of 17.8% in Q2FY20 vis--vis 31.0% in Q2FY19, b) better unsustainable as discretionary spends majorly depend on how Covid situation evolves, which...

Led by lower volumes due to COVID, MSIL reported an EBITDA/PAT loss. Operationally gross margins were lower at 28.5% (PLe 30.5%, flat YoY) led by impact of inventory ramp down to an extent Rs1.1bn (which will normalise in...

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (formerly Maruti Udyog Ltd) is India's largest passenger car company, accounting for over 50 per cent of the domestic car market. The company is a subsidiary of Suzuki Motor Corporation of Japan which has held 56.28% stake in Maruti Suzuki. The company is engaged in the business of manufacturing, purchase and sale of motor vehicles and spare parts (automobiles, along with several other activities including ...

Sales volume for the period fell by 16%yoy to 385025 vehicles with domestic sales down by 16%yoy to 360428 vehicles and exports down by 16.9% yoy to 24597 vehicles. The fall in domestic sales was largely due to drop in volumes in all segments barring mini segment, which posted a growth of 6.8% to 69372 vehicles. The fall in domestic volume was largely due to continuity of general slowdown in demand in first two months of the quarter and Covid 19...

MSIL's 4QFY20 results were operationally weak wherein the company reporting an EBITDA margin at 8.5% (PLe 9.1%). However, gross margin arrived six quarter high at 29.7% despite one time impact of BS4 conversion cost at Rs1.25bn (~60bp). While PBT came in-line at Rs15.8bn, lower tax rate at 18% (PLe 26%) boosted adj PAT at Rs12.9bn (PLe Rs10.9bn). We believe MSIL is not only beneficiery of likley trend of shift towards personal mobility...

Best case estimates peg lower double digit decline in FY20! Covid-19 is a black swan event, which has brought the entire economy to a standstill. It was a further blow to the automobile sector, which was already struggling with weak consumer sentiment with domestic sales volume down 18% YoY in FY20. With movement of people highly restricted as well as income levels taking a hit, car purchase as a discretionary spend is expected to take a backseat. A caveat, however, is the initial signs of people traversing from shared mobility/public transport to personal mobility. However, there...