Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. share price target

The extent of deterioration in asset quality was surprising, given the usual seasonal trends and the creditable progress made by MMFS until now. NIM improvement and growth trends were positives. As always, MMFS' performance is highly correlated with rural macros. MMFS stands to gain from any improvement here. MMFS 3Q earnings were slightly ahead of estimates, even as provisions remained elevated YoY (+11% QoQ). NIMs expanded QoQ after a prolonged fall and AUM growth was healthy. The increase in GS-III disappointed. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 425 (2.25x Dec-21E core ABV of Rs 181 + Rs 18 for MIBL)

28 January 2020 MMFS reported 3QFY20 PAT of INR3.7b (+15% YoY) a 6% miss. Better- than-expected margins (NII beat of 6%) and opex performance (4% beat) led to PPoP beat of 13%. However, contingency provision (for customers who have a prolonged default history) of INR940m led to a PBT miss of 4%. Adjusted for the same, the PBT beat was 14%. (a) Loans were up 2.5% QoQ/12% YoY. (b) Spreads were up 10bp QoQ (9M v/s 1H). (c) Asset quality disappointed with GS3% up 60bp QoQ to 8.5%. (d) Share of securitization in borrowings increased to 15% from 12% last quarter. MMFS remains comfortable on the funding side. However, near-term growth challenges will remain with pressure in the underlying segment. We cut our estimates by 5% (led by higher provisions) and factor in ~13% AUM CAGR with RoA/RoE of 2.2%/15%.

Value of assets financed declined 10.2% YoY to Rs. 10,856cr Net Interest income grew 9.0%/1.5% YoY/QoQ in Q2FY20. Higher operating expenses and provisioning were the main reasons behind adj. PAT declining 6.7% YoY to Rs. 356cr in Q2FY20. Asset quality improved as GNPA/NNPA ratio improved to 7.2%/5.8% in Q2FY20 (vs 9.0%/6.0% in Q2FY19). We value the company at a target price of Rs. 412 based on SOTP, and retain our BUY rating on the stock....

We are not too disconcerted by slower growth this qtr, and our estimates over FY20-22E remain largely unchanged. Stable asset quality is creditable (incl. higher WOs) and reflective of sustainability of improved collection efforts. Oscillation in LLPs and non NIMs continued. Valuations remain attractive at 1.6x FY22E ABV, especially with estimated RoAAs of ~2%+ over FY20-22E. Maintain BUY. 2QFY20 saw slower growth (expected). Stable GS-III (7.2%) was creditable, partly aided by higher WOs. The dip in NIMs (to 6.9%) was disappointing and unexplained. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 417 (2.25x Sept-21E core ABV of Rs 178 +Rs 18 for MIBL).

(credit cost of INR3.6b v/s our est. While the GNPL ratio improved by 20bp/180bp QoQ/YoY to 7.2%, it was on account of a write-off of INR3.4b. The value of assets financed declined 8-10% QoQ/YoY to INR97b. The decline was driven across segments, barring pre-owned vehicles. basis, the mix remained largely unchanged, with car/UV and tractor financing comprising 46%/16% of total AUM. Spreads declined 40bp YoY to 7.1% driven by 40bp increase in cost of funds to 8.6%. Cost to income ratio was up ~360bp YoY to 39%. MMFS securitized INR25b in the quarter - the share of securitized assets increased from 9% to 12% of total borrowings QoQ.

Deep rooted upcountry presence, tie ups with OEMs and ample availability of funds will enable MMFS to grow (m-share gains) in spite of OEMs' woes. Vulnerability to rural stress remains. We reduce multiples (2.25x Jun-21E ABV vs. 2.75x earlier) due to increasing macro turbulence and oscillating coverage (that precludes a meaningful understanding of expected credit losses). A sharp rise in provisions (vs. reversals in 4Q) ate into PAT (Rs 684mn, -75/88%). Strong AUM growth (+22/7%) in spite of weak auto sales surprised. MAINTAIN BUY with a TP of Rs 399 (2.25x Jun-21E core ABV of Rs 200 +Rs 18 for MIBL).

AUM growth remained healthy at 22% YoY to | 71406 crore, led by traction in auto loans, particularly CV/CE and tractor segment. However, disbursement growth remained muted at | 10598 crore, up 3% YoY due to cautious curtailment in SME lending & slowdown in auto sector. Overall asset mix remained broadly stable with CV gaining prominence over SME. The management has guided 10-12% YoY growth in advances for FY20E. Within subsidiaries, growth reported by Mahindra Housing Finance witnessed a slowdown with 11%YoY growth in advances & 7% YoY degrowth in earnings to | 7872 crore and | 29 crore, respectively. Pressure on...

MMFS reported PAT of INR0.7b, significantly below our estimate of INR3.2b, due to higher-than-expected operating expenses and a sharp jump in provisions. As 1Q is a seasonally weak quarter, the These two factors resulted in an unexpectedly high credit cost of INR6.2b for the quarter. Despite a slowdown in OEM volumes, MMFS has been able to deliver strong AUM growth, driven by its diversification into new product segments (such as pre-owned vehicles and CV/CE) and increasing share in different OEMs. While the company is likely to gain market share, we expect AUM growth to moderate to 14% YoY by year-end. Asset quality performance has been in line with expectations; however, up- fronting of provisions on stage 3 assets and movement within stages 1-3 of loans (based on macros) are likely to keep credit costs volatile. We cut our estimates for PPoP by 5-7% and PAT by 15-18% to factor in higher credit costs.

A sustained and relentless focus on collections translated into sustained asset quality improvement. Vulnerability to rural stress persists, although reducing. The impact of upcoming elections and monsoon are key monitorables. In spite of continued mkt share gains and subdued competition from smaller NBFCs, we expect lackluster auto growth to impact MMFS. Better than expected improvement in asset quality (GNPAs: ~5.9%) and provision reversals (~Rs 1.15bn) drove PAT (+95/88%). Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 504 (2.75x Mar-21E ABV of Rs 177 + Rs 18 for MIBL)

Healthy advances growth at 26% YoY to | 61250 crore, led by auto loans, particularly CV/CE & tractor segment. Disbursement growth remained muted at | 11725 crore, due to cautious curtailment in SME lending. Overall asset mix remained broadly stable with CV gaining prominence over SME. The management has guided 10-12% YoY growth in advances for FY20E;...