Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. share price target

16 May 2020 MMFS 4QFY20 PAT of INR2.2b (down 62% YoY), a 40% miss. The miss in PAT was led by a contingency provision of INR5.7b (we factored in ~INR2.2b) related to COVID-19. Of INR5.7b, INR4.7b was used to increase PCR (800bps QoQ to 31%) for GNPA. Pre-provisioning profits grew 24% YoY (beat of 14%) to INR9.7b as opex (27% beat) declined 24% YoY to INR4.2b. Net income missed our estimate by 3% as loans stood largely flat QoQ (+6% YoY) at INR650b v/s the expectation of ~2% QoQ growth (on March- end COVID-19 restrictions). NIMs/GS3% came in flat QoQ at 7.7%/8.4%.

30% in red zone) should further weigh down on asset quality and earnings over FY21-22. Consequently, GNPA & credit costs estimates stand marginally tweaked to (7-8% vs 7.5% earlier and 2.4%+ vs 2.3% earlier resp.) prompting to trim EPS estimates by 2-8% over FY21-22E. With return profile (RoE: 9%/RoA:1.2%) offering no respite, we reiterate REDUCE rating with SoTP...

MMFS looking at converting its 85 regional offices to 4-5 large service centers in order to reduce fixed expenses, along with other measures. We revise our estimates for FY20-22E and arrive at a target price of Rs....

NII grew 13.4% YoY/ 6.8% QoQ, due to reduction in borrowing cost. Provisions increased 78.1% YoY/10.9% QoQ, due to extra provisioning given challenging economic conditions Asset quality remained under pressure as GNPA/NNPA ratio declining sequentially at 7.6%/6.0% in Q3FY20 (vs 7.2%/5.8% in Q2FY20). We rolled forward the valuation to FY22E and arrive at a target price of Rs. 416 based on SOTP, retain our BUY rating on the stock. NII aids bottom line, partially offset by higher provisions...

The extent of deterioration in asset quality was surprising, given the usual seasonal trends and the creditable progress made by MMFS until now. NIM improvement and growth trends were positives. As always, MMFS' performance is highly correlated with rural macros. MMFS stands to gain from any improvement here. MMFS 3Q earnings were slightly ahead of estimates, even as provisions remained elevated YoY (+11% QoQ). NIMs expanded QoQ after a prolonged fall and AUM growth was healthy. The increase in GS-III disappointed. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 425 (2.25x Dec-21E core ABV of Rs 181 + Rs 18 for MIBL)

28 January 2020 MMFS reported 3QFY20 PAT of INR3.7b (+15% YoY) a 6% miss. Better- than-expected margins (NII beat of 6%) and opex performance (4% beat) led to PPoP beat of 13%. However, contingency provision (for customers who have a prolonged default history) of INR940m led to a PBT miss of 4%. Adjusted for the same, the PBT beat was 14%. (a) Loans were up 2.5% QoQ/12% YoY. (b) Spreads were up 10bp QoQ (9M v/s 1H). (c) Asset quality disappointed with GS3% up 60bp QoQ to 8.5%. (d) Share of securitization in borrowings increased to 15% from 12% last quarter. MMFS remains comfortable on the funding side. However, near-term growth challenges will remain with pressure in the underlying segment. We cut our estimates by 5% (led by higher provisions) and factor in ~13% AUM CAGR with RoA/RoE of 2.2%/15%.

Value of assets financed declined 10.2% YoY to Rs. 10,856cr Net Interest income grew 9.0%/1.5% YoY/QoQ in Q2FY20. Higher operating expenses and provisioning were the main reasons behind adj. PAT declining 6.7% YoY to Rs. 356cr in Q2FY20. Asset quality improved as GNPA/NNPA ratio improved to 7.2%/5.8% in Q2FY20 (vs 9.0%/6.0% in Q2FY19). We value the company at a target price of Rs. 412 based on SOTP, and retain our BUY rating on the stock....

We are not too disconcerted by slower growth this qtr, and our estimates over FY20-22E remain largely unchanged. Stable asset quality is creditable (incl. higher WOs) and reflective of sustainability of improved collection efforts. Oscillation in LLPs and non NIMs continued. Valuations remain attractive at 1.6x FY22E ABV, especially with estimated RoAAs of ~2%+ over FY20-22E. Maintain BUY. 2QFY20 saw slower growth (expected). Stable GS-III (7.2%) was creditable, partly aided by higher WOs. The dip in NIMs (to 6.9%) was disappointing and unexplained. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 417 (2.25x Sept-21E core ABV of Rs 178 +Rs 18 for MIBL).

(credit cost of INR3.6b v/s our est. While the GNPL ratio improved by 20bp/180bp QoQ/YoY to 7.2%, it was on account of a write-off of INR3.4b. The value of assets financed declined 8-10% QoQ/YoY to INR97b. The decline was driven across segments, barring pre-owned vehicles. basis, the mix remained largely unchanged, with car/UV and tractor financing comprising 46%/16% of total AUM. Spreads declined 40bp YoY to 7.1% driven by 40bp increase in cost of funds to 8.6%. Cost to income ratio was up ~360bp YoY to 39%. MMFS securitized INR25b in the quarter - the share of securitized assets increased from 9% to 12% of total borrowings QoQ.

Deep rooted upcountry presence, tie ups with OEMs and ample availability of funds will enable MMFS to grow (m-share gains) in spite of OEMs' woes. Vulnerability to rural stress remains. We reduce multiples (2.25x Jun-21E ABV vs. 2.75x earlier) due to increasing macro turbulence and oscillating coverage (that precludes a meaningful understanding of expected credit losses). A sharp rise in provisions (vs. reversals in 4Q) ate into PAT (Rs 684mn, -75/88%). Strong AUM growth (+22/7%) in spite of weak auto sales surprised. MAINTAIN BUY with a TP of Rs 399 (2.25x Jun-21E core ABV of Rs 200 +Rs 18 for MIBL).