Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd. share price target

Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL) reported pre-sales of INR7.7b in 2QFY25, up22% YoY, guided by the strong sales momentum in Life Republic (50% of total sales) and 24K (28%).

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) is one of the leading real estate
developers in Pune, with a growing presence in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region
(MMR) and Bengaluru markets. In over three decades of its presence, KPDL has
delivered more than 26msf of projects, with another 43msf in the pipeline at various stages (ongoing/upcoming/future).

There has been a change in the leadership of the company

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) reported its Q3FY21 with a strong sequential improvement in pre-sales which grew 56% QoQ

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) is a leading Maharashtra-based real estate company with consistent annual sales of >2msf over the last decade

Buoyed by the response to the promotional campaign at Life Republic, KPDL recorded robust pre-sales enabling the company to stay on track for its pre-sales target for FY20E. Though lack of new launches during 2HFY20 is a dampener, KPDL has a strong launch pipeline across Mumbai and Pune for FY21E with 3 commercial projects slated for launch in Pune. Mumbai and Bengaluru continue to be key markets for the company outside of its home base. We derive comfort from large part of KPDL portfolio being affordable and mid-income segment. We remain constructive and maintain BUY. Key monitorables: (1) Aggressive competition in home market, (2) Leverage position. KPDL financial performance under POCM was ahead of our estimates. Pre sales picked up in 3QFY20 after a weak 2QFY20. Stable collections and Net D/E within acceptable limits are other key positives. Maintain BUY with revised TP of Rs 310/sh.

Despite weak sectoral headwinds and entry of other organized players like Godrej in Pune market, KPDL is continuing to hold its influence in home market of Pune. To drive profitability, KPDL has built 1mn sqft of project pipeline for Mumbai. Absence of new launches in 2HFY20 remains a key dampener. We expect KPDL to bounce back as real estate recovery pans out. We derive comfort from large part of KPDL portfolio being affordable. We remain constructive and maintain BUY. Key Risks: (1) Aggressive competition, (2) High interest rates and (3) Debt bloat up. KPDL financial performance under POCM was in line with our estimates. Despite this, weak pre-sales was a key dampener. Robust collections and stable debt are key positives. We maintain BUY with SOTP of Rs 313/sh.

KPDL has shown resilience in face of sectoral headwinds. Subvention schemes are about Rs 800mn in value and not material. Launch pipeline in Pune looks strong, Mumbai projects are closing in on approvals, debt repayment is playing out and stake consolidation is adding to cashflows. KPDL is in sweet spot with near dominance in Pune market and strong project pipeline in Mumbai. We remain constructive and maintain BUY. Key Risks: (1) Aggressive competition, (2) High interest rates and (3) Debt bloat up. KPDL financial performance under POCM was below our estimates. Despite this strong pre-sales, robust collections and debt reduction are key positives. We maintain BUY with SOTP based TP of Rs 311/sh.

KPDL has a strong brand recall in Pune. Despite new entrants launching (eg. around Life Republic) and other financially sound brands entering its home turf, it has demonstrated decent sales velocity in FY19. Management expects the momentum to continue (and guided for 18-20% YoY growth) and will focus more on volumes (in tune with peers) as price is expected to remain sticky. We remain constructive and maintain BUY. Key Risks: (1) Aggressive competition by peers, (2) High interest rates and (3) Further debt bloat up. We maintain BUY with SOTP based TP of Rs 311/sh. We have cut our FY20/21E EPS by 25.4/14.0% to factor in a delay in projects moving into revenue recognition under IND AS 115.

We maintain BUY with a NAV based TP of Rs 314/sh. Adjusting for IND AS 115 effects (Revenue/APAT is lower by Rs 2.1/0.5bn vs. POCM), 3QFY19 Revenue/EBITDA/ PAT beat/(miss) stood (19.3)/5.2/(31.5)% vs. our est. High share of affordable Ivy Estate (38% vs 16/14% YoY/QoQ) and Life Republic (~25% share in volume) brought down pre-sales realization to Rs 5,196/sqft.

We maintain BUY with a NAV based TP of 314/sh. Due to IND AS 115, 2QFY19 revenue of Rs 2.1bn is lower by Rs 419.8mn (higher by Rs 693.6bn for 1HFY19). Revenue de-grew 7% YoY after adjustment for Wakad land sale and came in at 31% below estimate. High share of MIG/ Township (32/55%) bought down realizations to Rs 5,223/sqft.

Due to limited upside we maintain NEU with a NAV based TP of 315/sh. Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) had to adjust Rs 2.2bn (net) in retained earnings on transition to IND AS 115. 1QFY19 Revenue came in at Rs 3.9bn (+43.3 YoY, +78.9% QoQ). Due to IND AS 115, revenue is higher by Rs 1.1bn. Pre-Sales were majorly driven by Stargaze, Ivy Estate, Life Republic, Downtown and Bengaluru projects.

We maintain NEU with a NAV based TP of 315/sh. Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) delivered strong 4QFY18 revenue growth of 43.3% YoY. FY18 revenue was Rs12.2bn (+26.5%) driven by first time recognition in R1 sector of Life Republic; Western Avenue, Ivy Estate and Mumbai projects.

We maintain SELL on KPDL with NAV based TP to Rs 312/sh. Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) delivered strong 3QFY18 revenue growth of 17.8% YoY, lead by year end sales promotions in key projects viz. Life Republic, Ivy Estate, Western Avenue & Downtown. KPDL has achieved 0.6mn sqft of pre-sales during 3QFY18 and guided for sustaining the pre-sales momentum in Q4FY18E.

We maintain NEU, increase NAV-based TP to Rs 253/sh (vs Rs 195/sh earlier) Aided by the revenue mix tilting towards high-margin projects, Kolte Patil Developers Ltd (KPDL) delivered strong EBIDTA margin of 31.2%(+593bps YoY). This led to 53.2% APAT. KPDLs pre-sales rebounded 44% QoQ to 0.59mn sqft, in-line with the last 12 quarters average run-rate of 0.58mn sqft. We have excluded the Wakad land sale consideration of Rs 1.6bn from revenue and costs. KPDL received Rs 0.4bn and the balance Rs 1.2bn was used for the repayment of structured loans availed for the Wakad land purchase. Hence, no meaningful debt reduction is reflected in the BS.

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) delivered strong 4QFY17 revenue growth of 62.5% YoY. Outperformance was led by Life Republic, Mirabillis and Corolla projects. The impact of demonetization seems to be largely behind with KPDL pre-sales rebounding 72% QoQ to 0.55mn sqft (last 12 quarters average run-rate).

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. (KPDL) delivered 2QFY17 Revenue, EBIDTA & Net Profit, 19.6/(2.0)/0.1% ahead of our estimate. Tuscan and Jazz were key project driving revenue growth. The impact of demonetization would reflect in 2HFY17E. Accordingly, we have re-calibrated our FY17-18E EPS estimate 5-21% lower to factor in the same.

Over last 1-yr, Kolte Patil Developers Ltd (KPDL) has underperformed BSE Realty Index by ~40%. Exit of incumbent CEO, change in top leadership and weak real estate markets impacted new launches, resulting in KPDL achieving lowest presales (FY16 - 2mn sqft) in last 5yrs.

Kolte Patil Developers Ltd (KPDL) reported muted 2QFY16 results because of delay in revenue recognition in a few projects. Pickup in real estate sentiment will augur well for the company and result in strong pre-sales momentum.